重要提醒 报告导读： 中国企业正进入大出海时代，并向着全球价值链高端环节进军。全球宽松周期 后半程，海外工业化与基建投资进入上行周期，中国科技制造外需的增长韧性或超预期。 产业出海是制造业国家经济转型的关键一跃，中国正进入出海加速阶段。 中企出海的本质是在全球新一轮产业链转移的背景下，中国产业占领产业链高附加 值环节并走向深度全球化的过程。 历史经验看， 出海既是国家的主动战略规划，也是现实增长约束下的合理选择。在国内要素成本上升、外部市场准入趋严 与本币升值压力下，向价值链高端化转型与推动产业出海是高质量发展的必然要求。海外制造业大国通常在人均 GDP 约 1.5 万美元后进入近十年的出海加速 期，同时伴随着本币的新一轮升值周期。我们认为，走向全球的中国企业可以更好立足国内创新等要素比较优势整合全球低成本资源，并一定程度减少贸易摩 擦与改善国际经贸关系。在"既看 GDP 也看 GNI "的增长目标下，中国经济发展模式正从" GDP 目标 - 投资驱动 - 扩大出口"向" GNI 目标 - 创新驱动 - 出海加速"加快转变。 全球产业竞争优势快速提升，中企走向 2.0 时代体系化出海。 中国近年来贸易竞争力快 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：中国企业正进入大出海时代，并向着全球价值链高端环节进军。全球宽松周期后半程，海外 工业化与基建投资进入上行周期，中国科技制造外需的增长韧性或超预期。 摘要 ▶产业出海是制造业国家经济转型的关键一跃，中国正进入出海加速阶段。中企出海的本质是在全球新 一轮产业链转移的背景下，中国产业占领产业链高附加值环节并走向深度全球化的过程。历史经验看， 出海既是国家的主动战略规划，也是现实增长约束下的合理选择。在国内要素成本上升、外部市场准入 趋严与本币升值压力下，向价值链高端化转型与推动产业出海是高质量发展的必然要求。海外制造业大 国通常在人均GDP约1.5万美元后进入近十年的出海加速期，同时伴随着本币的新一轮升值周期。我们 认为，走向全球的中国企业可以更好立足国内创新等要素比较优势整合全球低成本资源，并一定程度减 少贸易摩擦与改善国际经贸关系。在"既看GDP也看GNI"的增长目标下，中国经济发展模式正从"GDP 目标-投资驱动-扩大出口"向"GNI目标-创新驱动-出海加速"加快转变。 ▶全球产业竞争优势快速提升，中企走向2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant pressure from increased tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, China's overall export growth has exceeded market expectations, showcasing remarkable resilience in the face of challenges [2][3]. Group 1: China's Export Resilience - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total export reached $2.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly three years [2][3]. - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, the second-highest in nearly a decade, only behind the recovery period of 2021 [2]. Group 2: Market Diversification and Structural Upgrading - Exports to non-U.S. markets have shown significant growth, compensating for the decline in exports to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, exports to Africa, ASEAN, India, the UK, the EU, Latin America, and Canada grew by 28.3%, 14.7%, 12.9%, 8.7%, 8.2%, 6.9%, and 5.1% respectively, collectively contributing approximately 6.3 percentage points to overall export growth [5][6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Structure - The share of intermediate goods in total exports increased from 41.7% in 2017 to 47.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the share of consumer goods decreased from 37.2% to 32.5% [9][10]. - Intermediate goods and capital goods have become the main drivers of overall export growth, with intermediate goods exports growing by 10.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][11]. Group 4: Trade Relations with Major Economies - The trade relationship with developed economies like the U.S. and EU is shifting from complementarity to a mix of competition and cooperation, with China's exports to these regions facing pressure [12][13]. - Despite challenges, there remains potential for growth in high-value intermediate and capital goods exports to developed economies, as China's competitiveness in high-tech sectors continues to improve [14][15]. Group 5: Emerging Markets as Growth Drivers - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa, are becoming significant growth markets for Chinese exports, with a shift in the export structure from consumer goods to capital and intermediate goods [19][20]. - China's exports to Africa have increased from 4.2% to 5% of total exports from 2017 to 2024, with capital goods' share rising from 17.4% to 24% during the same period [19][20].

Group 1 - The recent trade policy adjustments between the US and China have cast a shadow over India's ambition to become the "world's factory," as the US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 10%, while maintaining a 27% tariff on Indian goods [1] - Experts indicate that the shift in tariff policy may lead to a stagnation or reversal of manufacturing investments that were previously directed towards India, threatening the growth of high-value industries despite the low-cost assembly segment remaining viable [1][3] - Apple's recent decision to shift a significant portion of its iPhone production from China to India contrasts sharply with the current challenges faced by India's manufacturing sector, highlighting the complexities of global supply chains [1] Group 2 - A joint venture between Foxconn and India's HCL Group has received approval for a $435 million semiconductor factory, expected to begin production in 2027, focusing initially on chip packaging and testing [2] - Apple CEO Tim Cook has emphasized that deepening operations in India is a key strategy to navigate uncertainties in US-China trade relations, with data showing that 40% of India's exports to the US overlap with Chinese products, indicating potential for short-term substitution [2] - Despite the positive outlook, India's manufacturing sector faces structural weaknesses, with manufacturing contributing only 15% to GDP and a heavy reliance on imports for core components, particularly in high-end production like iPhones [3][4] Group 3 - The Indian government's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has shown limited success, achieving only 37% of its target output by October 2024, with subsidies disbursed falling short of initial plans [4] - Recent trends indicate a reversal of some Apple supply chain activities back to China due to quality control issues and operational challenges in Indian factories, underscoring India's shortcomings in high-end manufacturing capabilities [4] - Experts suggest that while India aims to attract Chinese investments to bolster its manufacturing sector, this could potentially undermine local technological development, emphasizing the need for integration into global supply chains [4]