Core Viewpoint - Despite significant pressure from increased tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, China's overall export growth has exceeded market expectations, showcasing remarkable resilience in the face of challenges [2][3]. Group 1: China's Export Resilience - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total export reached $2.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly three years [2][3]. - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, the second-highest in nearly a decade, only behind the recovery period of 2021 [2]. Group 2: Market Diversification and Structural Upgrading - Exports to non-U.S. markets have shown significant growth, compensating for the decline in exports to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, exports to Africa, ASEAN, India, the UK, the EU, Latin America, and Canada grew by 28.3%, 14.7%, 12.9%, 8.7%, 8.2%, 6.9%, and 5.1% respectively, collectively contributing approximately 6.3 percentage points to overall export growth [5][6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Structure - The share of intermediate goods in total exports increased from 41.7% in 2017 to 47.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the share of consumer goods decreased from 37.2% to 32.5% [9][10]. - Intermediate goods and capital goods have become the main drivers of overall export growth, with intermediate goods exports growing by 10.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][11]. Group 4: Trade Relations with Major Economies - The trade relationship with developed economies like the U.S. and EU is shifting from complementarity to a mix of competition and cooperation, with China's exports to these regions facing pressure [12][13]. - Despite challenges, there remains potential for growth in high-value intermediate and capital goods exports to developed economies, as China's competitiveness in high-tech sectors continues to improve [14][15]. Group 5: Emerging Markets as Growth Drivers - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa, are becoming significant growth markets for Chinese exports, with a shift in the export structure from consumer goods to capital and intermediate goods [19][20]. - China's exports to Africa have increased from 4.2% to 5% of total exports from 2017 to 2024, with capital goods' share rising from 17.4% to 24% during the same period [19][20].

Group 1 - The recent trade policy adjustments between the US and China have cast a shadow over India's ambition to become the "world's factory," as the US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 10%, while maintaining a 27% tariff on Indian goods [1] - Experts indicate that the shift in tariff policy may lead to a stagnation or reversal of manufacturing investments that were previously directed towards India, threatening the growth of high-value industries despite the low-cost assembly segment remaining viable [1][3] - Apple's recent decision to shift a significant portion of its iPhone production from China to India contrasts sharply with the current challenges faced by India's manufacturing sector, highlighting the complexities of global supply chains [1] Group 2 - A joint venture between Foxconn and India's HCL Group has received approval for a $435 million semiconductor factory, expected to begin production in 2027, focusing initially on chip packaging and testing [2] - Apple CEO Tim Cook has emphasized that deepening operations in India is a key strategy to navigate uncertainties in US-China trade relations, with data showing that 40% of India's exports to the US overlap with Chinese products, indicating potential for short-term substitution [2] - Despite the positive outlook, India's manufacturing sector faces structural weaknesses, with manufacturing contributing only 15% to GDP and a heavy reliance on imports for core components, particularly in high-end production like iPhones [3][4] Group 3 - The Indian government's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has shown limited success, achieving only 37% of its target output by October 2024, with subsidies disbursed falling short of initial plans [4] - Recent trends indicate a reversal of some Apple supply chain activities back to China due to quality control issues and operational challenges in Indian factories, underscoring India's shortcomings in high-end manufacturing capabilities [4] - Experts suggest that while India aims to attract Chinese investments to bolster its manufacturing sector, this could potentially undermine local technological development, emphasizing the need for integration into global supply chains [4]