Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bond investment strategy outlook for February 2026, emphasizing the atypical economic recovery and its implications for asset allocation in the bond market [2] Group 1: Economic Recovery Insights - The current economic recovery is characterized as non-typical, suggesting that traditional recovery patterns may not apply [2] - Factors influencing this atypical recovery include shifts in consumer behavior and changes in fiscal policies [2] Group 2: Bond Market Strategy - The article outlines specific strategies for bond investments, recommending a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the ongoing economic changes [2] - It highlights the importance of duration management in the current interest rate environment to optimize returns [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Predictions indicate potential volatility in the bond market, necessitating a proactive approach to investment selection [2] - The article suggests monitoring key economic indicators that could impact bond yields and overall market performance [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 经济非典型修复下的配置行情 ——2026年2月债券投资策略展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 王哲一 A0230525100003 2026.2.4 主要内容 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 当前宏观环境特征：强预期与弱现实并存。 ◼ 从大类资产表现来看，当前市场隐含的经济增长预期可能超过过去三年。 ◼ 但从实际经济运行的量、价维度来看，基本面依然处在偏弱状态。 • PMI新订单再度大幅回落，表明有效需求不足对经济的制约仍是主要矛盾。 • 物价表现来看，CPI同比回升主要受其他用品和服务（黄金涨价）、食品烟酒（猪价企稳）的支撑，但房租、衣着、服务消费的价格 依然不强。 ◼ 基本面视角：实体经济偏弱，叠加2月往往是生产淡季。 ◼ 近期配置行情的特点：10年好于30年、国债好于国开、信用优于利率。 ◼ 中期层面需要注意的债市压力（3月两会后，尤其2季度以后）。 • 基本面改善的可能性，重点关注物价改善对名义GDP的支撑 ...