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徐工机械(000425):新周期,“新徐工”价值重估进行时
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-15 05:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company, as a leading manufacturer in China's construction machinery industry, is expected to undergo a value reassessment in the new cycle, driven by internationalization, product expansion, and improved operational quality [3][6]. - The current upward trend in both domestic and overseas construction machinery markets supports the company's potential for value reassessment during the new upward cycle [9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the value reassessment of the company in the context of a new cycle, emphasizing the importance of demand-side analysis and the company's operational quality, product line expansion, and business layout [6][18]. Industry Trends - The domestic market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with significant growth in excavator sales, which increased by 38.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [7][21]. - The global market for construction machinery presents vast opportunities, with emerging markets showing sustained demand growth [48][49]. Company Analysis - The company is enhancing its international presence, with overseas revenue contributing 44% and gross profit contributing 47% in H1 2024 [8][9]. - Product line expansion includes strengthening its excavator business and increasing its presence in the mining machinery sector, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [8][9]. - Operational quality is improving, with anticipated increases in profitability and asset quality due to scale effects and a shift towards high-margin overseas revenue [9][9]. Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.124 billion and 8.224 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17 times and 12 times [9].