老登经济，在2025年彻底挺不住了。 曾几何时，白酒、名表、燃油车构筑了"老登"们消费世界的"铁三角"，成为实力、人情与圈层的硬通货。 然而2025年，这条曾被认为最稳固的价值阵线正悄然生锈、无声变形。从白酒到烟草，甚至年轻人连烟都直接戒了。 捞金生意大退潮：糖果、饮品、汽车...... 去年年底，天津最大的奥迪4S店一夜之间清空，保安亭上赫然贴着"闭店"告示。 这家经营20年的经销商集团，没想到竟然说塌就塌，只是很多看热闹的人没想到，当时不过是敲响的第一个警钟。用一个梗来形容今年的经销商再精准不 过：本来应该从从容容、游刃有余，现在是匆匆忙忙、连滚带爬。先说肉眼可见比较"难过"的行业：白酒。2025年，20家上市酒企库存就累计了近400万 吨，部分酒企产能消化周期动辄长达3年以上，经销商直接成了库存的"蓄水池"。 一边是销售回款缓慢，另一边还要先向酒企预付货款，可谓是"双重挤压"。 如果说白酒经销商们还在苦苦支撑，那么饮品经销商们则是已经深度感受到寒意。今年，饮品市场虽然花样频出，但是叠加物流与原材料成本持续攀升， 再加上来自品牌方的任务压力，不少饮品经销商也是叫苦不断。有人透露，自己的生意整体相较于去年下 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by distributors in the beverage industry, particularly in terms of declining revenue and profit margins from 2023 to 2025. It emphasizes the need for adaptation and transformation in business models to navigate these changes effectively. Revenue Trends - In the first half of 2023, 60.6% of distributors reported a decline in revenue compared to the same period in 2022, with the figures expected to improve slightly to 58.7% in 2024 and 37% in 2025 [2] - The data indicates that the most significant impact on revenue occurred between 2023 and 2024, largely due to the disruption of traditional distribution channels by new retail formats [4] Profit Trends - The proportion of distributors experiencing profit declines was 51.7% in 2023, increasing to 63.3% in 2024, and slightly decreasing to 56.3% in 2025 [3] - This trend underscores the widespread nature of profit erosion among distributors, necessitating a reevaluation of business strategies [4] Business Transformation - The case of Haocun Special Trade illustrates a successful transformation from a traditional distributor to a more diversified business model, focusing on multiple product categories and channels [7][12] - Key strategies included expanding product categories, establishing a B2B platform, and entering the instant retail market, which collectively helped stabilize the business [8][20][36] B2B Development - Haocun Special Trade's B2B initiative aims to shift from a wholesale mindset to a platform-based approach, addressing the challenges of integrating traditional distribution with digital solutions [21][24] - The company plans to achieve a B2B scale of approximately 12 million in 2023, focusing on structural health rather than just size [33] Instant Retail Strategy - The company has established seven instant retail stores in 2024, adopting a "light asset, self-operated" model in collaboration with Meituan to enhance market presence [36][40] - The expected sales for instant retail are projected to reach 10 million in 2024 and 15 to 20 million in 2025, emphasizing the strategic importance of this segment for market positioning rather than immediate profit [40] Industry Evolution - The article concludes that the role of distributors is evolving from mere sellers to operational nodes that connect brands with consumers, highlighting the importance of self-selling capabilities and data collection [42] - This shift reflects a broader trend in the industry where the focus is on operational efficiency and consumer engagement rather than traditional distribution metrics [42]