结构化市场

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摩根斯坦利策略首席:中国真正的“核心资产”不是茅台,而是它们
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 02:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market rally is driven by strong corporate earnings rather than liquidity, indicating a shift from a "liquidity bull market" to an "earnings bull market" [3][6][20] - Corporate earnings have stabilized for three consecutive quarters, with the "Earnings Revision Breadth" indicator turning positive for the MSCI China Index in August, signaling a recovery in companies' profit-generating capabilities [4][25] - The market is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with hot sectors like technology, internet, finance, and biotechnology showing strong earnings growth, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and real estate are facing downward revisions [7][11][29] Group 2 - AI is not a bubble; leading companies in China are significantly undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, with the potential for substantial profit contributions from AI integration into their existing businesses [12][13][25] - The market is witnessing a fundamental shift in foreign investment, with over 90% of U.S. investors expressing plans to increase exposure to Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors where China has established global leadership [14][30] - Key sectors attracting foreign investment include humanoid robotics, automation, and biotechnology, indicating a strategic shift in how foreign investors view China from a mere emerging market to a core asset in the global tech race [15][16][30]
有钱真的可以为所欲为
表舅是养基大户· 2025-04-16 13:30
今天收盘后,昨晚咱们的标题,《 暂时不允许股市下跌》,是不是含金量更高了? 尾盘14点30之后,几个沪深300、上证50、中证500、中证1000ETF,再次集体放量,国家队靠一己之力, 再次把上证指数和沪深300,双双拉 红, 实现了上证指数的七连阳 。 空头:有钱大晒啊? 国家队:sorry,有钱真系大晒。 我们还是以日间活跃度不算大的,华夏沪深300ETF为例,下面的分时图的黄色框框显示, 14点30之后,买盘一通放量 ,瞬间指数就窜起来了。 第一,具体买了什么品种? 这个,几乎是明牌,主要是4个品种,上证50、沪深300、中证500、中证1000。 时至今日,去探讨国家队尾盘拉升的合理性和必要性,已经没有太大的意义了,我们不妨站在国家队的视角,去思考几个问题。 第二,这样拉尾盘,每天需要买多少?换句话说,国家队买不买的动? 昨天一天来看,上述4个品种,净买入靠前的几个产品,合计净买入在90亿左右。 上周四、周五那两天,基本可以确定国家队没买,当日,宽基ETF,分别流出-45亿、-50亿,这都是市场化想卖出止盈的资金。 也就是说,简单来看,要确保稳住大盘,国家队需要每日准备,至少2倍于市场卖盘体量的资金 ...