证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 1、《净利润断层策略本周超额收益 1.31%》2026-02-23 2、《量化择时周报：缩量信号如期出 现，聚焦科技与周期》2026-02-23 3.44%》2026-02-08 报告摘要 两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 上周周报（20260223）提示：综合来看，市场整体在海外影响以及日历效应的影响下， 风险偏好有望抬升，同时成交金额也到达我们预期的阶段地量水平，市场有望延续节 前反弹节奏。最终 WIND 全 A 全周上涨 2.75%，并创出新高。市值维度上，本周代表 小市值股票的中证 1000 上涨 4.34%，中盘股中证 500 指数上涨 4.32%，沪深 300 上 涨 1.08%，上证 50 上涨 0.17%;本周中信一级行业中，涨幅靠前的行业包括钢铁 ...

量化择时周报：两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《净利润断层策略本周超额收益 1.31%》2026-02-23 2、《量化择时周报：缩量信号如期出 现，聚焦科技与周期》2026-02-23 3.44%》2026-02-08 报告摘要 | 中泰量化周观点:两会来临,短期关注政策驱动 | | --- | | 风险提示 . | | 市场环境变动风险,模型基于历史数据。 . | | 图表 | 1 | ： | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 | ： | PB 估值水平 4 | 两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 上周周报（20260223）提示：综合来看，市场整体在海外影响以及日历效应的影响下， 风险偏好有望抬升，同时成交金额也到达我们预期的阶段地量水平，市场有望延续节 前反弹 ...

01 2月27日，A股主要指数表现分化，全市场ETF涨多跌少，超过200只ETF涨幅大于1%。 02 今天，金属板块ETF表现强势，出现"刷屏式"上涨。截至收盘，部分金属板块ETF今年以来累计涨幅已超 过30%。主投半导体设备板块的ETF出现明显回调，多只产品跌超2%。 03 前一交易日（2月26日），ETF市场整体呈资金净流出，金额超过290亿元。其中，宽基ETF资金净流出额 居前，多只产品单日资金净流出超10亿元。挂钩恒生科技指数的ETF"吸金"。 金属板块ETF大涨 2月27日，金属板块ETF成为ETF市场表现最为亮眼的品种，几乎占据ETF涨幅榜前25个席位。 截至收盘，跻身ETF涨幅榜前十的金属板块ETF全部涨超4%，主要跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数、中证稀土 产业指数、中证工业有色金属主题指数、中证有色金属矿业主题指数。这10只ETF中，半数以上产品今年 以来涨幅超过20%。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 今日涨幅 (%) | 今年以来涨幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159671.SZ | 稀有金属ETF工银 | 4.96 | 30.11 | | 562800. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The rare metals and rare earth sectors led the gains, with several ETFs in these categories rising over 4%, including the Rare Metals ETF from ICBC, which increased by 4.96% [2] - Other notable performers included the Rare Metals ETFs from Jiashi and Guangfa, both up by 4.68%, and the Rare Metals ETF Fund from Huafu, which rose by 4.55% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also saw significant increases, with the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF from Tianhong up by 4.28% and the Non-Ferrous ETF from Huashan rising by 4.17% [3] Declining Sectors - The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a notable pullback, with several ETFs in this category showing declines, including the Semiconductor Equipment ETF from Guotai, which fell by 2.16% [4] - The small-cap growth style, particularly in the ChiNext and National 2000 indices, faced pressure as funds rotated out of previously popular themes into cyclical resource sectors for safety [4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF from Haifutong led trading activity with a turnover of 576.06 billion yuan, followed by the National Debt ETF from Huaxia at 168.25 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang at 137.24 billion yuan [5] - The turnover rates were high for bond ETFs, with the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang achieving a turnover rate of 156.87%, indicating strong liquidity in this segment [6] ETF Issuance - Six new ETFs are set to launch, focusing on Hong Kong Stock Connect and Sci-Tech sectors, with fundraising starting on March 2, 2026 [8] - The Cash Flow ETF from Great Wall will track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, while the Engineering Machinery ETF from Penghua will follow the China Securities Engineering Machinery Theme Index [9] - Cross-border products include the Internet ETFs from ICBC and Xingye, which will track the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [9][10]

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 上证指数收涨0.39%，创业板指跌1.04%。沪深京三市成交额25055亿元，较上日缩量512亿元，三 市超3200只个股上涨。稀有金属概念股掀涨停潮，钢铁、燃气、煤炭、电力、环保涨幅靠前，云计算、 AI应用、算力租赁题材活跃。算力硬件、半导体、商业航天概念股调整。 今日，镁、钨等稀有金属股全线大涨，稀有金属ETF、稀土ETF嘉实、矿业ETF、有色ETF华宝、 大宗商品ETF、工业有色ETF万家、有色金属ETF、有色金属ETF基金、有色ETF鹏华分别涨4.68%、 4.11%、4.02%、3.74%、3.71%、3.68%、3.48%、3.39%、3.25%。电力板块走强，电力ETF、绿电ETF 分别涨2.73%和2.53%。钢铁板块走高，钢铁ETF涨2.45%。 创业板成长ETF、深成长ETF大成跌2%。半导体板块走低，半导体设备E ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 半导体设备ETF（159516）跟踪的是半导体材料设备指数（931743），该指数聚焦于半导体产业链中的 材料与设备环节，从市场中选取涉及半导体制造、封装测试所需的关键材料及设备供应业务的上市公司 证券作为指数样本，以反映半导体产业上游领域相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 申万宏源证券指出，算力行业的投资逻辑正向"效率优先、商业转化率优先"全面转型，其核心诉求 从"无上限的远期规模扩张"转向"有边界、可落地、与商业化节奏高度匹配的精准投入"。同时，全球半 导体产业链正迎来一轮覆盖全环节、多品类的系统性涨价潮，呈现出全链条传导、海内外共振的鲜明特 征。本轮涨价从上游晶圆制造、封装测试的产能报价，延伸至中游存储芯片、MCU、模拟芯片、功率 半导体的终端产品定价，并带动电阻、电感等被动元件同步涨价。当前电子产业链呈"三线并进"的系统 性涨价：包括景气拉动型（如存储、CPU）、成本传导型（如CCL/电子布、被动元件）以及供给收缩 型（如利基存储、成熟代工）。在AI资本开支加速与金属原材料上行的共振下，行业于26年一季度形 成"淡季不淡"的全面通胀格局。 ...

成长板块走低，创业板成长ETF、深成长ETF大成分别跌3%、2.79%。半导体设备板块回调，半导 体设备ETF、半导体设备ETF、科创半导体ETF、通信ETF、通信ETF华夏、5GETF博时、通信设备ETF 分别跌2.77%、2.75%、2.73%、2.52%、2.40%、2.33%和2.20%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com A股三大指数早盘集体下挫，截至午盘，沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌1.46%，北证 50指数跌0.74%，沪深京三市半日成交额15966亿元，较上日缩量532亿元。全市场超2300只个股上涨。 板块题材上，小金属、算力租赁、云计算、煤炭开采加工、跨境支付、钢铁、光伏设备、AI应用、旅 游及酒店板块涨幅居前；造纸、PCB、CPO、存储芯片、电池、光刻机、PET铜箔板块跌幅居前。 ETF方面，AI应用回暖，创业板软件ETF华夏、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has seen a significant inflow of over 54 million units, driven by ongoing expansions in advanced processes and memory production, indicating strong mid-to-long-term growth narratives in the semiconductor equipment sector [1] Group 1: Market Activity - On February 26, the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) recorded a net inflow of 54 million units, reflecting aggressive capital allocation by investors [1] - Institutions indicate that the semiconductor equipment sector is a clear beneficiary of expansions in advanced processes and memory production, with multiple catalysts such as new listings and market share gains from Japanese manufacturers [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current narrative surrounding semiconductor equipment differs from previous cycles of recovery or domestic substitution, as it is fundamentally benefiting from the high demand driven by global AI advancements [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), which focuses on the materials and equipment sectors within the semiconductor industry, selecting listed companies involved in semiconductor material R&D, production, and equipment manufacturing [1] Group 3: Investment Implications - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the upstream semiconductor sector, characterized by high technical barriers and growth potential, making it a crucial indicator for capturing development opportunities in this field [1]

春节后红包行情持续。我们统计2006—2025年历史数据进行复盘，发现： 节后红包行情的胜率比较突出：20次春节，节后1周胜率16/21（76%）、2周同为76%，1月胜率71%（15/21），显著 高于全年平均约52%。5次下跌均为外生系统性冲击，非节日效应本身失效。 节后红包行情的涨幅可观：1周均涨+1.6%、2周+2.5%、1月+4.6%；牛市年（2007/09/15/19）1月均涨超13%；2025年 节后AI科技行情推动大涨，1周+2.37%、1月+5.76%，节后效应再度验证。 | | | | | 历年春节后A股涨跌明细(中证全指) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | स्टेसि | 1周 | 2周 | 1月 | W | स्टेसि | 1周 | 2周 | 1月 | W | | 2025 | +2.37% | +4.08% | +5.76% | 1 | 2015 | +4.18% | +5.12% | +10.20 | A | | 2024 | +3.67% | +5.42% | ...

Group 1 - The core message indicates that China's leading chip manufacturers plan to significantly increase the production of advanced chips from currently less than 20,000 units to 100,000 units within 1-2 years, with a long-term goal of adding 500,000 units by 2030 [2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of advanced processes and storage, with a strong narrative for medium to long-term growth [2] - The current semiconductor narrative is driven by global AI demand rather than traditional cyclical recovery or domestic substitution, making it a unique investment opportunity [2]