美股科技股2026年开局失速，正在成为压制大盘上行的关键变量，而英伟达即将公布的财报被市场视为 能否扭转情绪的关键。 英伟达将于周三美股收盘后发布季度业绩。在AI相关抛售是否"杀过头"、承压科技股何时迎来拐点的 争论升温之际，这家半导体巨头的业绩与指引可能对整个科技产业链产生外溢影响。 截至目前，标普500信息技术板块年内下跌3.5%，创2022年以来最差开局。板块内部撕裂明显，软件公 司因AI颠覆担忧遭遇重挫，而半导体、硬件则保持上涨，反映资金对"AI受益端"与"AI冲击端"的重新 定价。 更重要的是，科技股对指数的影响仍难以被替代。科技板块在标普500中权重约33%，显著高于第二大 板块金融的12.4%。即便资金轮动推升材料、能源等板块，大盘要实现实质性上行仍离不开科技板块企 稳回升。 软件股重创，创史上最差开局 科技板块内部出现明显分化，软件行业首当其冲。市场担忧新一代AI工具将从根本上颠覆软件公司的 商业模式，导致标普500软件及服务指数年初至今重挫23%，为该指数有史以来最差年度开局。 个股层面，财务软件商Intuit股价今年以来暴跌约46%，该公司将于周四公布财报；Salesforce股价下滑 3 ...

交易流向 午间指数表现 ：下跌 1.9% ：下跌 2.1% ：下跌 2.4% ：1390 亿港元 ：1.56 亿美元 领涨板块：必需消费品（-0.0%）、电信（-0.1%）、工业（-0.2%） 领跌板块：非必需消费品（-2.5%）、信息技术（-2.8%）、医疗保健（-3.6%） 午间市场点评 香港市场在昨日强势后出现技术性回调，医疗保 午间指数表现 ：下跌 1.9% ：下跌 2.1% ：下跌 2.4% ：1390 亿港元 ：1.56 亿美元 领涨板块：必需消费品（-0.0%）、电信（-0.1%）、工业（-0.2%） 领跌板块：非必需消费品（-2.5%）、信息技术（-2.8%）、医疗保健（-3.6%） 午间市场点评 香港市场在昨日强势后出现技术性回调，医疗保健板块成为主要拖累因素。 A 股节后首个交易日表现强劲，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.33%。 南向投资者在香港市场净卖出，占港股成交额的 22%（高于通常的 20% 以下水平），资金似乎流向 A 股市 场。 Citrini报告对恒生科技指数造成压力，该指数早盘下跌 2.4%。 下跌 4.6%，反映出 AI 板块情绪疲软。 今日市场催化剂有限，但我们的主要做空 ...

假期间的事件驱动较难预判，今天的涨幅一次性释放后需要关注持续性。 ☁AI软件：春节期间，美股软件股继续暴跌，Adobe、CRM、Autodesk的最大回撤已经达到30%，驱动因素还是 多个大模型的密集发布，而Claude宣称具备的Cobol改造能力更是直逼IBM的心理防线（后者昨夜大跌13%，Cobol 语言起源于上世纪50年代，至今仍是美国政府和银行系统的核心底层支柱，因程序语言较为陈旧，稀缺维保能力 是IBM的护城河之一），但值得注意的是，这波计提的跌幅本质上是华尔街在等待一个尚未横空出世的杀手级产 品，何时到来、是否会到来都是未知数。 ☁AI硬件：不管软件板块有多腥风血雨，卖铲人的逻辑依然可靠。 "易中天"分别上涨1%、4%、12%，折射出的是市场对新技术的抢跑，CPO（光电共封装）技术有望在年底实现量 产，增量环节的光引擎、硅光芯片、光源、光纤、耦合乃至存储都是最大受益者，而业务模式单一、专注传统光 模块厂商的份额可能遭到挤占。 【春节后首个交易日，市场普涨，机构赎回含权资产】202602224 ☁春节假期海外事件频出，16号至23号期间恒生科技、纳斯达克整体微涨，对比之下A股表现更强，早盘高开、 午 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月13日凌晨，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.34%报49451.98点，标普500指数跌 1.57%报6832.76点，纳指跌2.03%报22597.15点。热门股方面，思科跌超12%，迪士尼跌逾5%，领跌道指。万得美国科 技七巨头指数跌2.2%，苹果跌约5%，脸书跌近3%。 有分析人士指出，投资者开始担忧人工智能建设会侵蚀一些公司的未来盈利，并可能颠覆多个行业的商业模式并推高 失业率，引发风险资产全线走低。 申万宏源证券此前撰文指出，近期美股科技显著跑输，主要由于估值拖累较为显著。特别是美股软件股的大幅下跌是 拖累科技股近期走势的核心关键，背后是市场担忧非上市的大模型公司对软件生态的颠覆，从远期的替代终局对软件 股进行了估值重塑。硬件公司的估值同样面临下修，市场担忧全产业链的涨价逻辑如果证伪或导致上游涨价受阻。 尽管业绩超预期且AI贡献超预期，但市场对于互联网的激进"花钱计划"依然感到担忧，体现了当前在融资环境难以进 一步宽松的背景下，AI的收入贡献的增速预期比不上当前成本支出的增速预期，难有增量资金支撑互联网估值。而此 前受到成本压力以及AI落后担忧的苹果走出下跌趋势，成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by the technology industry, particularly in the context of rising component prices, with storage prices increasing by 40%-50% in the last quarter and potentially doubling in the current quarter. This price surge is expected to impact the prices of PCs and smartphones, leading to a forecasted price increase of 15%-20% across the market [3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for the third quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, representing a year-on-year growth of over 18% [5]. - Adjusted net profit reached 4.07 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, indicating that profit growth is outpacing revenue growth [5]. - AI-related revenue surged by 72% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of total revenue, with AI PCs, smartphones, and servers all showing significant growth [5]. Group 2: Business Segments - The IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) segment generated over 110 billion RMB, growing by over 14% year-on-year, despite rising core component costs [5]. - The ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) segment reported revenue of 36.7 billion RMB, a 31% increase year-on-year, with AI server business experiencing high double-digit growth [5][6]. - Lenovo's inventory increased to 9.077 billion USD, up from 7.924 billion USD at the end of the previous fiscal year, attributed to business growth and longer delivery cycles for cloud service provider orders [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The hardware industry is facing extreme tests of efficiency and resilience due to supply chain challenges, particularly driven by the high demand for AI training and memory [8]. - Lenovo's scale across PC, smartphone, and server businesses provides it with strong negotiating power with suppliers, allowing it to secure better costs and supplies [8][9]. - The company has established deep, trust-based relationships with upstream suppliers, ensuring priority access during supply shortages, with significant growth targets set for partnerships, such as with NVIDIA [9]. Group 4: AI and Future Outlook - AI is viewed as a critical growth driver, with the potential for significant value creation in enterprise and personal intelligence through the use of private data [9]. - Lenovo's strategy focuses on "hybrid AI," emphasizing the importance of data, computing power, and models in driving future market demand for intelligent terminals and AI infrastructure [9].

Group 1 - BYD has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government to reclaim tariffs imposed on imported materials, claiming significant costs for its operations in the U.S. [2] - Over 1,000 companies, including major players like Costco and Toyota, have initiated similar lawsuits against the U.S. government regarding tariffs [2]. - NIO's CEO Li Bin emphasized the importance of optimizing the CBU mechanism to maximize efficiency and minimize costs in the company's operations [6]. Group 2 - Ford's global sales fell by approximately 2% to around 4.4 million units, while BYD's sales reached 4.6 million units, marking a significant shift in the automotive market [6]. - BYD aims to increase its export volume to 1.3 million units in 2025, following a successful year of expansion in Europe, South America, and Asia [6]. - NIO plans to implement a "store partner" program to enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness, allowing store managers greater decision-making power [6]. Group 3 - The European Union has approved Google's acquisition of cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion, marking Google's largest acquisition to date [9]. - Apollo Global Management is nearing a $3.4 billion loan agreement to finance the purchase of NVIDIA chips for Elon Musk's xAI [10]. - Alibaba's DAMO Academy has released an open-source foundational model for embodied intelligence, RynnBrain, enhancing its AI capabilities [10]. Group 4 - The Shanghai government has opened over 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads, with plans to expand the testing area further [17]. - Toyota and Nissan reported sales increases in China for January, while Honda's sales continued to decline due to delays in new electric vehicle launches [17]. - The launch of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service by Alipay indicates a growing trend towards automated transportation solutions in urban areas [15].

Core Viewpoint - The hardware industry is facing significant challenges in 2025 and 2026, with major delays in the release of the RTX 60 series graphics cards, as NVIDIA shifts its focus to AI products, leaving the gaming market in a state of stagnation [1][3]. Group 1: Graphics Card Market - NVIDIA has postponed the release of the RTX 60 series graphics cards to the end of 2027, prioritizing AI products over gaming hardware [1]. - The graphics card market is expected to experience a substantial update void over the next two years due to this shift [3]. - NVIDIA's introduction of DLSS 4 and 4.5 updates aims to extend the lifespan of older graphics cards, but this is seen as a temporary fix rather than a genuine hardware upgrade [4][7]. Group 2: Memory Market Dynamics - Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan predicts that the current memory price increase cycle will last until at least 2028, with no signs of relief in sight [10]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI applications is causing a significant increase in costs for consumer electronics, leading to a "stagflation" scenario where prices rise while performance declines [12][14]. - Major memory manufacturers are reallocating resources to HBM production, which is squeezing the supply of consumer-grade DDR4/5 and LPDDR memory, further escalating costs for manufacturers [14][16]. Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing Challenges - The semiconductor industry is facing limitations in process technology, with TSMC's N2 process showing minimal performance improvements compared to the more established 3nm process, leading to higher costs for marginal gains [17]. - Manufacturers are likely to adopt conservative strategies, focusing on refining existing 3nm products rather than pursuing new advancements, resulting in a stagnation of technological progress [19][21]. - The industry is expected to see more products that are merely name upgrades with downgraded specifications, reflecting a broader trend of stagnation in consumer electronics [21][23]. Group 4: Consumer Electronics Outlook - The consumer electronics market is entering a phase of technological stagnation, where new products may not represent significant performance improvements, but rather increased prices for minimal enhancements [23][25]. - Consumers are advised to adjust their expectations regarding technological advancements, recognizing that the current environment is characterized by rising costs and stagnant performance [28][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment theme of the US stock technology sector in 2026 may be "shrinking the circle", with hardware outperforming software and platforms, and the market favoring companies with a closed - loop business model and more robust financial conditions [3][5]. - In the short term, the risk of US stock earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate defensive value sectors or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic [15][18]. - Under regulatory guidance, Chinese stocks are moving forward steadily in a "slow - bull" market with a "slower slope". It is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped [19][23]. - The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be close to that of 1997 from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC [37]. Summary by Related Contents US Stocks - **Market Performance and Catalysts**: The US stock market had a 3 - day consecutive decline this week. The more stringent assessment of the "quality" of the earnings reports of US stock technology giants was the "trigger" for this adjustment. Since last November, the market's narrative on AI investment has shifted from "arms race" to "return on investment" [5]. - **Earnings Report Analysis of Tech Giants**: The 7 Sisters' guidance on Capex expenditure in 2026 is generally aggressive, almost doubling that of 2025. Google's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the doubling of Capex still caused a decline after the report. Microsoft was under pressure due to the disproportionate increase in cloud business revenue and capital expenditure. The ROIC of the 7 Sisters in Q4 2025 continued to decline, but the decline rate and slope were still controllable [3][9][11]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the risk of earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate appropriate value sectors for defense or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support level for the Nasdaq. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic, with hardware outperforming the 7 Sisters and application software, and Google with a closed - loop business model being more favored [15][16][18]. - **AI Bubble Analysis**: The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. From the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC, the current situation may be close to that of 1997. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" at the level of US stock technology giants and indices shows a sharp convergence trend [37]. Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Influencing Factors**: This week, the overall Chinese stock market was volatile and weak, with low - level cyclical and high - dividend sectors leading the rise. The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weaker than that of A - shares, mainly affected by three factors: rumors of VAT adjustment, the anxiety about the subversion of the software ecosystem by Anthropic Claude, and the weak performance of A - shares and US stocks [19][20]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced, focusing on high - quality performance lines and supplemented by low - level cyclical and dividend sectors. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped: technology assets with a clear industrial trend supported by policies, some new energy and chemical sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous sector supported by tight supply, strong structural demand, and catalyzed by interest rate cuts [23]. A - Share Earnings Forecast - The stocks in A - shares with an expected doubling of earnings growth are mainly concentrated in industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, biomedicine, and power equipment. For example, companies like Huisheng Bio, Kemeite Gas, and Xinqianglian are among them [24].

由于投资者越来越担心人工智能带来的颠覆性影响， 苹果(AAPL.US) 被视为安全的绿洲，其股价走势与科技股和整体市场走势相反。苹果股价 周三收涨2.6%，而以科技股为主的 纳斯达克100指数 下跌1.77%。这意味着苹果股价以自2025年初以来最大幅度的跑赢大盘。这一走势延续 了近期的上涨趋势，本月伊始，苹果股价已累计上涨近6%，而纳斯达克100指数同期则下跌了3.3%。 这种分化既反映了苹果公司的积极发展势头，也反映了科技行业大部分领域日益增长的不确定性。苹果公司上周公布的财报显示，其季 度销售额创下历史新高，且业绩指引也超出预期。与此同时，Alphabet和初创公司 Anthropic 推出的人工智能工具引发了科技股的普 遍抛售，因为投资者担心人工智能服务会蚕食公司的增长。 Eye指出:"苹果公司虽然不是价值股，但也不是高风险股。" Eye称："苹果公司决定不参与人工智能军备竞赛，现在看来比六个月前更明智。它仍然会从人工智能中受益，但它不必被迫背负千亿美 元的债务和资本支出来资助大量的基础设施和项目。" 该公司有望从人工智能的普及中受益，因为像iPhone这样的硬件设备将成为用户访问人工智能服务的核心平 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is perceived as a safe haven amid investor concerns over the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, with its stock price rising contrary to the overall market trend [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Apple's stock rose by 2.6% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq 100 index, which is tech-heavy, fell by 1.77% [1]. - This performance marks the largest outperformance of Apple against the market since early 2025, with Apple’s stock up nearly 6% this month, while the Nasdaq 100 has declined by 3.3% during the same period [1]. - Apple's market capitalization has slightly exceeded $4 trillion, making it the second-largest company globally, surpassing Alphabet [1]. Group 2: Financial Results and Market Sentiment - Apple's recent quarterly sales reached a historical high, and its earnings guidance exceeded expectations [3]. - In contrast, the launch of AI tools by Alphabet and startup Anthropic has led to widespread sell-offs in tech stocks, as investors fear that AI services may erode company growth [3]. - Software stocks are under pressure, with a popular ETF tracking this sector down 2.7%, marking a potential seventh consecutive day of declines, the longest losing streak in over two years [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Apple is not participating in the AI arms race, which is viewed as a wiser decision now compared to six months ago, allowing the company to benefit from AI without incurring massive debt and capital expenditures [4]. - Hardware devices like the iPhone are expected to become core platforms for users accessing AI services, positioning Apple favorably in the evolving tech landscape [3].