高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国 2026 股票策略，超配中韩印的理 由，首席策略师谈中国四大主题 20260110 高盛将亚太地区 MX APJ 指数 12 个月目标上调至 825 点，预计美元价 格回报为 14%，总回报为 17%，但认为回报可能不及 2025 年，建议 关注北亚、印度及周期性板块，通过核心主题创造超额收益。 高盛认为当前宏观环境具有建设性，美国 GDP 增速高于市场共识，美联 储或年中前再降息两次，美元指数将进一步贬值，通常利好亚洲市场。 预计 2026 年盈利增长强劲，从 10%提升至 19%。 高盛认为当前估值大致合理但略高，全年预测中计入小幅估值压缩，盈 利将是股市回报的核心驱动因素。海外投资者累计抛售约 1,000 亿美元， 共同基金配置较基准低 75 个基点，存在重建头寸空间。 高盛预计超大规模企业 2026 年投资增长 34%至约 5,500 亿美元，利 好硬件、半导体及 AI 领域。能源供应存在缺口，看好"亚洲能源升级" 主题，涵盖核电、电力及可再生能源等领域。 美中战略紧张局势带来美国再工业化机会，韩国、日本等国对美追加投 资，利好直接受益于美国需求增长或在工业技术、材料领域宣布对 ...

《南华早报》此前发文称，高盛预计2026年中国股市将进一步扩张，股权收益将更多地由盈利增长推动，而非单纯的 估值提升。报告还预测，随着AI货币化和以AI相关的资本支出的进展，2026年互联网和硬件公司的利润将实现约20% 的年度增长；汽车行业利润也可能翻一番，从2025年的低位水平回升。 【环球网财经综合报道】2026年开年以来，全球资金对中国资产的配置热情持续高涨。外资以"唱多又做多"的双重动 作，港交所披露数据显示，开年以来，摩根大通累计斥资超10亿港元增持多家港股公司，彰显出对中国经济韧性与资 产价值的坚定信心。 中信证券则认为，2026年初躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎资金的追涨 加速了行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布仓方向。 中信证券还提到，从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票 轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。 另有业内机构表示，短期市场波动或有所加大，重点布局结构性投资机会。如遇震荡行情，投资者可把握逢低布局机 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】高盛近日发布《2026年中国股票市场展望》报告，预计2026年MSCI中国指数与沪深300指数 将分别上涨20%和12%，对A股和H股维持超配评级。 《南华早报》发文称，得益于人工智能的蓬勃发展和上市公司的国际扩张，高盛预计2026年中国上市企业利润可能增 长14%，明显优于2025年的个位数增长。对此高盛强调："低至中位数的每股收益增长率、适中的估值和投资者普遍较 低的持股水平，都指向中国股市有利的风险收益比。" 报告还预测，随着AI货币化和以AI相关的资本支出的进展，互联网和硬件公司2026年的利润将实现约20%的年度增 长。汽车行业的利润也可能翻一番，从2025年的低位水平回升；未来12个月预期市盈率为12.4倍，沪深300指数为14.5 倍，接近13倍和15倍的估值合理水平。 高盛还预判，受到更低估值和更高股息收益率所吸引，南向资金净买入额或将达到2000亿美元，将超过2025年净买入 1800亿美元的创纪录水平，境内资产再配置或将为香港股市带来3万亿元人民币的增量资金。 另据香港交易所披露，贝莱德2026年1月2日加仓海尔智家、药明生物、美的集团、中国银行等港股股票。 ...

高盛发布研报称，预期今年MSCI中国指数及沪深300指数今年将分别升20%及12%，并在对A股及H股 的"增持"评级。该行认为今年股市的升幅将完全由盈利增长推动；在AI、"走出去"策略及反内卷政策支 持下，料盈利增长将由2025年的4%，加速至2026年及2027年的14%。而目前市场估值合理，AI变现、 政策刺激及流动性超预期将带来上行潜力。 行业方面，该行仍看好AI主题，将硬件板块评级上调至"增持"，与互联网板块一致。消费领域中，仍偏 好服务业多于商品类，同时聚焦材料行业，并维持保险板块的"增持"评级。 流动性方面，该行预测南向资金净流入可能达到2,000亿美元(约1.558万亿港元，对比2025年净流入1.4 万亿元)，再创历史新高；国内资产再配置的资金流可能加速，或为股市带来约3万亿元人民币的增量资 金；股息及股份回购总额今年或接近4万亿元人民币；外资长线投资者可能降低其对中国股票的减持幅 度，意味着潜在买入规模约100亿美元(约779亿港元)；而新股集资额今年或超过1,000亿美元(约7,790亿 港元)，同比增长80%，相当于当前市值的0.5%。 该行指，内地境内散户投资者方面，散户投资人目前距离 ...

以下文章来源于硬氪 ，作者张子怡 硬氪 . 专注全球化、硬科技报道。36kr旗下官方账号。 拉斯维加斯再次迎来一年中最多的中国企业。 内华达沙漠干燥的冷空气中，弥漫着微妙的竞争气息。12个展馆中，公司都亮出最具野心的底牌。你能看到处理家务的人形机器人、飞天扫地机器人、折成Z字形的 手机。哪怕这些产品十年内都不会出现在你家中，也足以刺激出一瞬间的惊叹。 硬件行业水温已逼近沸点。所有的场景都密不透风。一些过去很冷门的细分赛道，如今都填满了猎手。硬件行业的后入者，或者会感到一丝绝望。 作为一家深耕硬件行业的媒体，"硬氪"持续关注CES。此后几日，您将跟随我们的视角，去捕捉目光与情绪的流向，共同见证2026年硬件行业震动发生的前夜。 文 ｜ 张子怡 编辑 ｜ 袁斯来 来源｜ 硬氪（ID：south_36kr） 封面来源 ｜ 企业供图 上一次CES，没人能想到创客赛道会成为大热门。但仅仅一年时间，不止一个公司的单品拿下千万美金的众筹成绩，头部企业拓竹估值超过百亿美金， xTool的招股书也递到了港交所。 今年CES， 面向Maker领域的创意工具类产品展台，每家企业都展现出强悍的产品力。创想三维有其最新智能3D打印品牌 ...

12月30日晚，罗永浩在上海西岸国际会展中心登台亮相，举办"十字路口2025年度科技创新分享大会"。这是他时隔7年重新回到演讲的"主场"。 在2018年的"锤子科技和Ta的朋友们"秋季新品发布会后，罗永浩接连卷入公司出售、被限高、直播还债的种种漩涡。 过去几年里他大多活跃于直播与综艺舞台。即便如此，仍有锤粉记得他，以及他曾用以感染人的理想主义、产品观、使命感。 "我是脑残粉。"向'电厂'谈及花800元购票的原因时，一位观众直接这样说道。现场也不乏从北京、广州等城市远道而来的观众。本次大会设置300元、 400元、500元、600元、800元和1000元 6个档位门票，开售两小时即售罄，据官方披露门票收入合计达到了166.8万元。 情怀犹在，但这次大会的主旨，是由罗永浩介绍经过其选品审核的优秀科技产品。换句话说，暌违自研硬件产品多年的罗永浩，为"友商"们的产品举办了 一场发布会。 这是锤粉们在兴奋之余，难免感到不对味的地方。 迟到47分钟后，连推7大"年度最"硬件 这次的罗永浩"科技春晚"，在上海西岸国际会展中心举办，后者能容纳4000人次。大会原定于19点开始，但从17点30检票开始，各个入场通道就已排起长 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that Asian stocks are expected to perform robustly in 2025, driven by favorable policies, strong domestic demand, and AI-driven innovations [1] - The report anticipates a continued decline in the US dollar, which historically benefits Asian stocks, and a globally accommodative monetary policy environment that may lead investors to shift from the US market to more attractively valued Asian economies [1] - The outlook for 2026 is positive for Asian stocks due to improved earnings prospects, favorable liquidity conditions, and ongoing structural reforms, presenting attractive investment opportunities for global investors [1] Group 2 - The next phase of growth in Asia will be driven by the real-world application of AI, with accelerated adoption in healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and e-commerce expected to unlock more earnings and boost productivity [2] - Asia's competitive advantage lies in its vast data ecosystem, cost-effective talent pool, and government-supported digital strategies, which will facilitate scalable AI solutions [2] - The report emphasizes a preference for companies with clear monetization paths, proprietary technologies, and integration capabilities that can incorporate AI into their overall business deployment [2] Group 3 - In China, the report maintains an optimistic outlook supported by structural growth drivers and clear policy focus, with domestic consumption expected to contribute approximately 60% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights China's commitment to breakthroughs in core technologies and the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging industries, such as semiconductors and green energy, to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [2] - The report notes that industry consolidation is alleviating overcapacity issues in manufacturing, allowing leading companies to achieve sustained growth through advanced technologies and resources [2] Group 4 - In India, despite a lag in stock market performance compared to Asia and global peers in 2025, a turning point is expected in 2026, supported by stable consumption and investment trends [3] - Recent government measures, including reductions in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and personal income tax, are anticipated to ease household tax burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly benefiting sectors like consumer goods [3] - South Korea and Taiwan are expected to benefit from the ongoing technology cycle, especially in high-frequency storage and semiconductors, with long-term capacity growth anticipated due to rising AI application demand [3] Group 5 - ASEAN markets present attractive investment opportunities, although political uncertainties in some countries should be noted [4] - Singapore is highlighted for its stable economic outlook, supported by favorable policies and abundant liquidity, while Malaysia continues to attract global semiconductor and tech hardware companies [4] - The Philippines is expected to benefit from urbanization, a young population, and remittances, contributing to a solid foundation for long-term economic growth [4] - Overall, despite short-term uncertainties, Asia's large domestic market and evolving innovation ecosystem reinforce sustainable growth, with structural drivers continuing to support resilience in the region [4]

凤凰网财经讯 12月24日，市场震荡拉升，沪指高开高走，深成指、创业板指均涨近1%。 沪深两市成交额1.88万亿，较上一个交易日缩量196亿。盘面上，市场热点轮动较快，全市场超4100只个股上涨。 涨停表现 | 封板率 | 昨涨停今表现 | | --- | --- | | 78.00% | 2.61% | | 封板 76 触及 21 | 高开率 54% 获利率 | 截至收盘，沪指涨0.53%，深成指涨0.88%，创业板指涨0.77%。 从板块来看，商业航天概念持续爆发，20余只成分股涨停，神剑股份5连板，国机精工4天3板，上海港湾、九鼎新材、再升科技涨停。算力硬件概念拉升， 环旭电子6天3板，英唐智控20cm涨停。福建板块走强，安记食品7天4板，合兴包装3连板。PCB概念快速拉升，生益科技涨停创历史新高。下跌方面，贵金 属、保险、乳业等板块跌幅居前。其中乳业概念集体调整，庄园牧场跌停。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rally, driven by AI hardware and resource sectors, indicating an increase in risk appetite and potential for further gains in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%, supported by strong performance in AI hardware represented by CPO [1] - Over a hundred stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets hit the daily limit up, reflecting heightened trading sentiment [1] - The resource sector, including gold and silver stocks, saw significant gains, driven by rising international prices [3] Group 2: Global Liquidity Trends - There is a consensus among market participants that global liquidity will continue to increase, influenced by substantial fiscal spending from major economies [1][2] - The U.S. and Japan are implementing large fiscal stimulus plans, contributing to a trend of monetizing fiscal deficits in developed economies [1][2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The increase in global liquidity is expected to enhance risk appetite, benefiting technology growth stocks and resource companies in the A-share market [3] - Some institutional investors are shifting from neutral strategies to more aggressive buying in the A-share market, as evidenced by increased trading volumes in the CSI A500 ETF [4] - The potential for further gains in the A-share market is supported by the dismantling of neutral strategies by institutions, leading to a more bullish outlook [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the dual nature of opportunities and challenges in the Malaysian market for Chinese companies venturing abroad, emphasizing the need to understand local business logic beyond the typical Chinese perspective [1][2] - Malaysia is positioned as a buffer zone amid the US-China trade war, attracting interest from major powers due to its industrial advantages and high-tech capabilities, making it a desirable partner for both China and the US [3][4][6][7] - The article highlights the importance of localizing business strategies for Chinese companies, as many have struggled due to a lack of understanding of local culture, user experience, and language [11][15][18] Group 2 - The article identifies key sectors with growth potential in Malaysia, including renewable energy, digital technology, healthcare, and elder care, suggesting that Chinese companies should align their offerings with local needs [19][30] - It points out that the service sector in Malaysia surpasses manufacturing, providing a fertile ground for digital industries to thrive [20] - The discussion includes the necessity for infrastructure development, such as charging stations for electric vehicles, to support the growth of new industries [20][22] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for Chinese companies to engage with local communities and integrate into the local ecosystem to avoid missing opportunities [30] - It also mentions that many Chinese enterprises view Malaysia merely as a production base to circumvent tariffs, which is not a sustainable approach [17][30] - The importance of government collaboration in implementing technological advancements and regulatory frameworks is highlighted as essential for successful market entry [28][29]