这些政策信号意义重大，它可能意味着供应端无序扩张的阶段临近尾声。与之相呼应的是行业数据：企业扩张意愿正在减弱。2025年前 三季度，石化化工上市公司资本开支同比减少10.1%，在建工程规模收缩。当行业处于长期低价、扩张停止且政策推动出清时，其"否极 泰来"的潜力自然会吸引资金的目光。这也能解释为何股市化工板块及关联ETF同步走强，并进一步带动了商品市场的热度。 短期"催化剂"强化上涨叙事 02 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期商品市场热点轮动。继贵金属和有色金属之后，化工板块开始吸引资金关注。以1月22日为例，化工期货几乎全线上涨，合成橡胶、乙 二醇和苯乙烯涨幅均超4%。资金流入迹象明显，仅PTA和苯乙烯两个品种就流入近17亿元。这引发了一个核心问题：化工板块的集体走强， 是趋势反转的开始，还是短期情绪的宣泄？ 市场关注点为何转向化工？ 01 一轮行情的启动，通常需要一个清晰的叙事逻辑。 当前市场关注的核心，是一个关于 "周期反转" 的故事。 这个故事的前半段是漫长的行业低谷。过去四年，化工行业面临双重压力：前期资本开支扩张导致产能严重过剩，同时下游如房地产等 领域需求 ...

Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]