Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced mixed performance on July 4, with a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan from stock ETFs, primarily driven by broad-based ETFs and profit-taking behavior from short-term investors [1][2][3]. ETF Market Overview - As of July 4, the total scale of 1,135 stock ETFs reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.302 billion yuan on that day [3]. - Broad-based ETFs saw the largest net outflow, totaling 5.474 billion yuan, with the CSI A500 index leading at 2.192 billion yuan [3]. - Specific ETFs with significant outflows included the CSI 300 ETF (0.983 billion yuan), A500 ETF by Harvest (0.377 billion yuan), and Dividend ETF (0.348 billion yuan) [3][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment has shown signs of recovery due to easing external risks and ongoing domestic growth policies, leading to a generally upward trend in the market [3][4]. - Analysts from HSBC Jintrust suggest that as external disturbances diminish and the Federal Reserve approaches a rate cut, the market's risk appetite is likely to improve, creating a favorable environment for equity assets [4]. Hong Kong Market Performance - Despite the overall outflow in stock ETFs, the Hong Kong market ETFs experienced a net inflow of 4.308 billion yuan, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading at 1.986 billion yuan [8][9]. - Notable inflows were observed in ETFs managed by leading fund companies, such as E Fund's Hang Seng Technology ETF (0.24 billion yuan) and the SSE 50 ETF (0.12 billion yuan) [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts from Huaxia Fund maintain an overweight position on Hong Kong stocks, citing the core assets within the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index as having strong investment value due to their historical low valuations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bonds: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending June 27, the stock index rose significantly, with small and medium - cap stocks showing obvious gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16% weekly. The current stock market is mainly supported by loose capital and risk appetite, and the overall trading volume of the stock market has significantly recovered [1]. - From the perspective of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 5 points, the valuation indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 6 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points [1]. - The rapid convergence of the discount in the term structure may indicate an increase in the bullish power of the market and is also related to the correction of style drift at the end of the quarter. It is expected that as the neutral strategy increases again after obtaining a low hedging cost with the season change, the discount is expected to deepen again [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.35% last week, mainly due to holding TF long positions on Thursday and Friday. In the long - term, the decline in industrial enterprise profits exerts some pressure on IC and IF, but the overall impact weight is not large. In the short - term, as the US dollar fluctuates downward, the pressure on interest rate spreads and exchange rates decreases, and the impact weight of the capital side on stock index futures continues to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators such as blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The stock index futures score is 7, and the bond futures score is 0 [2]. 3.2 Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. Both stock index futures and bond futures scores for inflation are 7 [3]. 3.3 Liquidity - Liquidity indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The stock index futures score for liquidity is 5 [4]. 3.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The stock index futures score for index valuation is 9 [5]. 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Market sentiment indicators for the stock index such as margin trading balances, trading volumes, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The bond futures score for stock - market sentiment is 8 [6]. 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bond - Market sentiment indicators for bonds such as the yield of 10 - year government bonds, credit spreads, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the bond index. The bond futures score for bond - market sentiment is 9 [7]. 3.7 Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - related high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. 3.8 Prediction Signals - The short - term model, position volume indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF are provided. The comprehensive signal strength is synthesized by weighting the signals of three independent models (0 - 1) [18]. 3.9 Last Week's Situation - The positions of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF last week are presented, and the net value is tracked [20]. 3.10 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, and the model is constructed using PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression. The signals are divided into three categories: '1', '0', and '- 1'. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [21]. 3.11 Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T main contracts from June 23 to June 27 are provided, showing the signals from the N - S model and the trend regression model [24].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - In May, global markets rebounded, with significant gains in major stock indices, particularly in the US, where the Nasdaq rose by 9.56% due to strong corporate earnings and improved market sentiment following the Geneva agreement between China and the US [4] - The Hong Kong market also benefited from the US-China talks and domestic growth policies, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by over 5% and net inflows from southbound funds reaching 45.617 billion HKD [4] - The A-share market showed a weaker rebound influenced by the easing of US-China tensions and monetary policy adjustments, but credit growth remains sluggish, indicating a need for time to support economic recovery [4] Bond Market Review and Outlook - The bond market experienced slight fluctuations in May, with the China Bond Index declining by 0.06%, as long-term rates increased while short-term rates decreased [7] - The central bank's monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, have maintained liquidity expectations in the bond market, with government bond net financing reaching a small peak [7] - Future market performance will depend on external demand and domestic economic recovery, with a focus on upcoming economic data [7] Macro Indicators Review - The manufacturing PMI in May rose by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a marginal improvement in economic conditions, although it remains below the expansion threshold [13] - Electricity generation in April 2025 was 7,111 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.90%, while online retail sales reached 1,117.67 billion CNY, up 1.34% year-on-year [13] - M1 and M2 growth rates for April were recorded at 1.50% and 8.00%, respectively, with M2 showing a strong upward trend due to supportive growth policies [13] Market Style Rotation - As of May 30, 25 out of 31 A-share sectors saw gains, with notable increases in defense, pharmaceuticals, and banking, while sectors like electronics and real estate faced declines [15] - The market's focus on export opportunities and military strength due to geopolitical tensions has driven interest in related sectors [15] Research Interest Trends - Research sentiment has gradually improved, with a focus on machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, as indicated by the number of due diligence visits by major private equity firms [17][18] - Notable companies receiving attention include Huichuan Technology and Tianzhun Technology in the machinery sector, and Zhongan Technology in the electronics sector [18] Summary - The overall market performance in May was positively influenced by US-China relations, with expectations for cautious asset allocation strategies focusing on bonds and selective equity investments in technology and consumer sectors [19]

Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on funds with low equity exposure, as investors are shifting their expectations towards a rebound in equity assets, leading to potential contract termination risks for several funds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Strategy - Many funds are facing redemption pressure due to a significant mismatch between their investment strategies and market expectations, particularly those with a "heavy debt, light equity" approach [1][2]. - Funds like 德邦新回报灵活基金 have reported stock allocations as low as 8%, with a substantial 72% of their assets allocated to bonds, which contrasts sharply with the rising market expectations for equities [3]. - 博时恒润6个月持有期基金 has seen its equity allocation drop from 25.7% a year ago to approximately 7% currently, indicating a trend of reduced equity exposure among certain funds [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fund Size - The market's overall performance is influencing fund sizes, with investors increasingly favoring funds that have higher equity allocations, as evidenced by the performance of偏债型基金 products that have increased their equity exposure [4][5]. - The招商智安稳健配置FOF fund has also faced risks due to its heavy allocation to bond funds (62%), with only 6% in equity funds, reflecting a broader trend of investor dissatisfaction with low equity exposure [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Impact - The article discusses how the recent monetary policy changes have positively influenced market risk appetite, with expectations of continued support for financial and real estate sectors [6][7]. - The decline in risk-free rates has reduced the opportunity cost of investing in equities, encouraging new capital inflows into the Chinese stock market [6][7]. - The overall sentiment is that the Chinese stock market is entering a phase of systematic decline in discount rates, which is expected to enhance investment prospects in A/H shares [6].