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大摩闭门会:邢自强-牛市未歇-[AI 纪要]
2025-08-25 09:13
中国入境游市场前景广阔,预计未来十年收入年化增长约 19%,上半年 外国人入境增长 30%,旅游服务出口增长超过 60%,免签政策是重要 推动力,AI 和科技发展消除语言障碍。 Q&A 近期市场的主要驱动力是什么? 近期市场的主要驱动力可以归结为三大因素。首先是宏观叙事的改善,自去年 9 月以来,政策方向逐渐清晰,信心有所恢复。其次是微观产业提供了许多燃 点,例如 AI 算力自主化、创新药和新消费等结构性主题不断涌现。最重要的是 资金流入股市,从七月初开始,资金搬家现象显著增加,这种流动性驱动的行 情正在推动市场上涨。 当前经济基本面的情况如何? 当前经济基本面仍然较为疲弱。预计三季度 GDP 增长速度将回落至 4.5%左右。 从八月份的高频指标来看,七月份的数据全面低于预期,而八月份在天气因素 消退后可能会略有反弹,但整体表现仍不如二季度。出口端抢出口效应消退, 集装箱码头数据下行;耐用消费品消费,即使有以旧换新第三轮资金下发,但 汽车、家电同比恶化;房地产市场仍在调整中,二手房成交和价格继续探底; 财政刺激效果有限,大项目虽批复但基建需求有限。 大摩闭门会:邢自强-牛市未歇 20250825 摘要 中国经 ...
5月起,中国将迎来“四大降价潮”?除房价外,这三类也准备降价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 06:24
Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to enter a state of structural deflation by 2025, while prices of essential goods such as cooking oil, paper products, cigarettes, and toiletries are rising, leading to increased living costs for consumers [1] - Many individuals are experiencing stagnant or declining wages, exacerbating the perception of rising living expenses [1] Real Estate Market - The downward trend in housing prices is anticipated to continue, with a reported 1.51% cumulative decline in second-hand residential prices across 100 cities in Q1, and a year-on-year drop of 7.29% [4] - The average price of second-hand homes is currently at 13,988 yuan per square meter, with further declines expected as new and second-hand housing supply increases [4] - Factors contributing to the long-term adjustment in housing prices include oversupply in the market, reduced household incomes, and the loss of speculative investment appeal in real estate [4] Automotive Industry - A price war is emerging in the automotive sector, with significant discounts being offered across both domestic and imported brands, with reductions of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for regular brands and 80,000 to 100,000 yuan for high-end brands [7][8] - The decline in consumer demand, driven by reduced incomes and job losses, is leading to increased inventory pressure in the automotive market [7] - The entry of technology companies into the automotive space has intensified competition, further pushing manufacturers to lower prices to clear stock [8] Small Appliances Market - The small appliance sector has been experiencing a price decline of 10% to 15% since last year, with expectations for further reductions as the market adjusts [10] - Rapid technological advancements and the introduction of new models are prompting manufacturers to discount older models to clear inventory [10] - Consumer behavior has shifted towards retaining existing appliances, leading to a decrease in demand for new purchases [10] Pork Market - Pork prices have significantly decreased, currently ranging from 17 to 20 yuan per kilogram, down from a peak of 40 yuan per kilogram in previous years [12] - The oversupply in the pork market is attributed to increased production following previous high prices, alongside changing consumer preferences towards healthier protein sources [12] - Reduced household incomes are also contributing to lower demand for pork, further driving down prices [12]