从分产品维度来看，目前各品牌的占比情况和增速如何？ 重庆啤酒 20251217 摘要 2025 年第四季度消费平稳，略好于去年同期低点，但对全年影响不大。 嘉士伯、乐堡、风花雪月和乌苏前三季度销量增长，重庆和大理品牌有 所下降。乌苏啤酒通过新品推出和渠道拓展，在疆内外均实现增长。 1986 版绿乌苏替换老版绿乌苏的升级已完成过半。吨价增长受消费环 境影响，消费者倾向于性价比高的产品，公司减少 12 元以上价格段啤 酒，集中于 8-10 元价格段，新产品推广需更多折扣，影响 ASP。 费用投放策略因地制宜，今年略高于去年，明年视市场而定。短期内， 公司希望通过 8-10 元价格带产品稳住并提升产品结构，保持竞争力。 预计明年消费状况与今年相似，啤酒整体销量可能微跌。 公司将拓展非现饮渠道，如新零售、即时零售及零食量贩，推出更多一 升灌装产品，尝试新的品牌策略。截至 2025 年第三季度，集影渠道销 量占比约 44%，非集影渠道约 56%，未来比例可能继续变化。 非直营渠道中，品牌影响力至关重要。全国性现代零售平台扩张带来新 机遇。即时零售渠道一升灌装产品销量最高，推动公司罐化率迅速提升， 从 2019 年的 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal packaging industry is entering a capacity expansion phase from 2022 to 2024, with increased competition and a projected average price drop for two-piece cans to 0.47 yuan per can in 2024. However, leading companies are showing a stronger willingness to avoid internal competition, which may stabilize prices and improve profitability across the industry [1]. Industry Overview - The metal packaging industry generated revenue of 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 13.05% of the overall packaging industry. Approximately 70% of the demand for metal packaging products comes from the food and beverage sector, with two-piece and three-piece cans being the primary products [1]. Price Fluctuation and Demand Drivers - The price of two-piece cans has experienced cyclical fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand dynamics. Historical price trends show a decline from 0.52 yuan per can to 0.37 yuan per can during the capacity concentration phase (2012-2016), followed by a recovery to 0.54 yuan per can during the industry consolidation phase (2016-2022). The average price is expected to drop to 0.47 yuan per can during the current capacity expansion phase (2022-2024) [2]. - The beer canning rate in China is projected to increase from 21.21% in 2016 to 29.56% in 2024, driving demand for two-piece cans from 28.96 billion cans to 31.55 billion cans. Each 1% increase in canning rate is estimated to add 1.061 billion cans to demand [2]. Industry Consolidation - The market share of leading companies in the two-piece can sector is increasing, with the CR3 ratio approaching 80% following the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin in April 2025. This consolidation is expected to halt net growth in domestic two-piece can capacity, with companies also expanding overseas production [3]. Cost Structure and Profitability - Aluminum is the largest cost component in the production of two-piece cans, and its price fluctuations significantly impact profitability. If aluminum prices remain stable, a 0.01 yuan increase in two-piece can prices could lead to a 45% increase in net profit per unit. Conversely, a 2% decrease in aluminum prices could result in a 32% increase in net profit per unit if can prices remain unchanged [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the metal packaging industry [11]. Core Insights - The metal packaging industry, particularly the two-piece can segment, is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply dynamics shift and demand from the beverage sector remains stable [3][4]. - The two-piece can market is characterized by cyclical price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand imbalances, with recent trends indicating a potential bottoming out of prices [2][56]. - The increasing canning rate in the beer and soft drink sectors is projected to be a key driver for future demand growth for two-piece cans [3][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The metal packaging industry generated revenue of CNY 150.56 billion in 2023, accounting for 13.05% of the overall packaging industry [1][19]. - Approximately 70% of the demand for metal packaging comes from the food and beverage sector, with two-piece cans being a significant product [1][18]. Price Dynamics - The price of two-piece cans has experienced three distinct phases: 1. A decline from CNY 0.52 to CNY 0.37 per can during the capacity concentration phase (2012-2016) due to oversupply [2]. 2. A recovery to CNY 0.54 per can during the industry consolidation phase (2016-2022) as market concentration increased [2]. 3. A projected decline to CNY 0.47 per can during the current capacity expansion phase (2022-2024) as competition intensifies [2][56]. Demand Drivers - The canning rate for beer in China is expected to rise from 21.21% in 2016 to 29.56% in 2024, leading to an increase in demand for two-piece cans from 28.96 billion to 31.55 billion cans [3][32]. - Each 1% increase in the canning rate is estimated to add approximately 1.061 billion cans to demand [3][32]. Industry Consolidation - The market share of leading companies is expected to increase following the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by ORG Packaging, which will further concentrate the market [3][49]. - The top three companies are projected to control nearly 80% of the market share post-acquisition [3][49]. Cost Structure - The price of aluminum, a major cost component in can production, significantly impacts profitability; a CNY 0.01 increase in can price can lead to a 45% increase in net profit per unit [4][56]. International Expansion - Leading companies are actively establishing overseas production bases to enhance profitability, with significant investments planned in countries like Vietnam and Thailand [52][54].