青岛啤酒（600600） 2025 年中报点评：全渠道协同发力，持续高 质量增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33,937 | 32,138 | 33,015 | 34,544 | 36,025 | | 同比（%） | 5.49 | (5.30) | 2.73 | 4.63 | 4.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,268 | 4,345 | 4,741 | 5,292 | 5,823 | | 同比（%） | 15.02 | 1.81 | 9.12 | 11.61 | 10.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.13 | 3.19 | 3.48 | 3.88 | 4.27 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.30 | 21.91 | 20.08 | 17.99 | 16.35 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司 ...

青岛国际啤酒节的激情仍在回荡，以烧烤闻名的淄博已接过快乐的接力棒。 8月15日晚，淄博2025青岛啤酒节在海月龙宫淄博烧烤体验地盛大开幕，创新性融合"淄博烧烤"与"青岛 啤酒节"两大顶流IP，打造一场集美酒、美食、音乐、文化与城市烟火气于一体的全民狂欢。 双IP联合：左手烤串右手举杯 欢聚淄博，干杯世界。本届淄博青岛啤酒节占地面积达2万平方米，将淄博的城市美食名片淄博烧烤和 游淄有味的生活美学，与青岛啤酒所代表的高品质与快乐融为一体，带给广大市民和游客全新的体验。 当晚，细雨中的海月龙宫西广场，化身为沉浸式啤酒狂欢梦幻之地，游客可以一站式享受滋滋冒油的淄 博烧烤与冰爽醇厚的青岛啤酒碰撞出的极致风味，体验"左手烤串右手举杯"的独特风情。 淄博烧烤的"灵魂三件套"——小炉+小饼+小葱，与青岛啤酒全系产品碰撞：麦香浓郁的经典系列、清 爽鲜活的青岛纯生、果香曼妙的白啤、新鲜直送的原浆以及充满淄博特色的绿兰莎啤酒，在烟火气中体 验"一饼一卷一酒"的快乐"淄"味。美食区还汇聚了齐鲁风味，从地道的淄博烧烤、博山特色菜、青岛海 鲜大咖到各种网红小吃饮品，一站式满足味蕾全方位探索。 在为期十天的狂欢中，本届啤酒节还精心策划了青 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is focused on deepening its domestic and international market presence, with a primary goal of increasing sales volume. It employs a strategic approach that includes consolidating its market position along the Yellow River, expanding its coastal market strategy, and leveraging opportunities in the southern market [4][6] - The company is implementing a product development strategy that includes a combination of classic, pure draft, and white beer as core products, alongside premium and fresh products to capture market trends [5] - New market opportunities are being pursued through the development of diverse products catering to consumer preferences, new channel partnerships, and targeting new demographics [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from a low base in 2024, with projected revenues of 331.81 billion, 339.14 billion, and 344.16 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3.25%, 2.21%, and 1.48% [7][10] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 47.24 billion, 51.25 billion, and 54.76 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.73%, 8.48%, and 6.85% [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.46, 3.76, and 4.01 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 18, and 17 times [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Qingdao Beer Festival is set to take place in multiple cities, including Heze, Jinan, and Linyi, offering a unique summer experience filled with joy and cultural integration [1][14]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The Heze Qingdao Beer Festival will last for 10 days, covering over 9,000 square meters, and is expected to attract over 100,000 visitors with themed nights featuring music and performances [3]. - The Jinan Beer Festival will run from June 21 to July 6, introducing a tent format that allows visitors to select from a wide range of beer products, including fresh and classic varieties [5]. - The Linyi Beer Festival will take place from June 21 to July 13, focusing on a combination of food, music, and cultural experiences to create a summer carnival atmosphere [7]. Group 2: Cultural Integration - The festivals in Heze, Jinan, and Linyi aim to merge local culture with the beer experience, featuring interactive activities and city landmarks [9]. - In Jinan, a giant beer tent serves as a city landmark, and visitors can receive commemorative cup sleeves featuring local attractions when purchasing beer [9]. - The Heze festival includes a cultural market showcasing local crafts and traditional arts, while Linyi features local music and art to enhance the cultural experience [11][13]. Group 3: Future Events - The Qingdao Beer Festival will continue to expand across various cities in China, promising a series of vibrant events filled with music, light, and beer [14][16].

Group 1: Current Status of the Beer Industry - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to October 2024, indicating stable consumer demand [2][14] - China's beer production has shown steady growth since 2021, with low industry inventory levels in 2023 and strong confidence among distributors [2][17] - The market is highly concentrated, with five major brands (China Resources, Tsingtao, Yanjing, Chongqing, and Zhujiang) holding 70% of the market share, and Yanjing Beer reported a remarkable net profit growth of 94.3% in 2023 [2][17] Group 2: Trends in Beer Consumption Demand - Beer has gained significant popularity on social media, with a 260% year-on-year increase in social media mentions, leading the beverage industry [3][24] - The flavor profile of beer is diversifying, with white beer and fruit-flavored beers gaining traction, and the integration of tea flavors becoming a new trend [3][27] - The market for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beers is rapidly growing, with a market value of 94.07 billion yuan in 2023, expected to increase its market share by 4% by 2027 [3][19] Group 3: Future Development Trends in the Beer Industry - Product innovation is on the rise, with a focus on integrating Chinese tea culture into beer, and packaging trends leaning towards functionality and sustainability [4][17] - Health-conscious products are emerging, such as zero-sugar and zero-alcohol beers, with brands like Suntory introducing vitamin D-infused non-alcoholic options [4][19] - Marketing strategies are evolving, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu being key for brand promotion, and live-streaming sales gaining traction [4][30]

Company Dynamics - Moutai is set to launch ten new products in five countries as part of its "Going Global" series, with a release planned for the 2025 Osaka World Expo [1] - Meituan has initiated a promotional campaign for Moutai, offering limited-time sales of 1,499 yuan per bottle during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The Moutai Airport initiative to allow passengers to purchase Moutai with a 100% winning chance was announced but subsequently canceled [3] Industry Trends - Tsingtao Brewery has emphasized its "fresh beer" strategy, focusing on key products like classic, pure draft, and white beer to drive growth [4] - China Resources Snow Beer has reported a significant increase in sales, with daily sales of a new product surpassing 40,000 cans [5] - Yingjia Wine has set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [6] Regulatory Changes - A new national standard for sauce-flavored liquor has been implemented, clarifying definitions and production processes to aid consumer understanding [7] Market Performance - JD.com reported a 150% year-on-year increase in sales for premium liquor during the 618 shopping festival, with specific categories seeing even higher growth [8] Executive Changes - Rémy Cointreau has appointed Franck Marilly as the new CEO, replacing Eric Vallat amid declining sales [9] - Pernod Ricard has also made leadership changes in its cognac division, reflecting adjustments in response to market challenges [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has elected Wu Yuefei as the new vice chairman of its board [11] Corporate Restructuring - Wuliangye has undergone management changes within its sales company, integrating its brand management and sales functions [12] - Chongqing Beer has welcomed a new CFO from PepsiCo, indicating a strategic shift in its financial leadership [13] - Luzhou Laojiao has seen the resignation of a board member, marking a significant change in its governance [14] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities has indicated that the beverage and beer sectors are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives to boost consumption [15] - New products from Jiuziyuan are being introduced at competitive prices, aiming to capture market interest during the festive season [16]

Core Viewpoint - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and sales growth, continuing the previous strategic framework while introducing new initiatives to adapt to market demands [3][4]. Group 1: New Management Strategy - The new management strategy focuses on "beer + biotechnology + health" as strategic areas for future development [3]. - The company aims to deepen its presence in both domestic and international markets [3]. - A product development strategy termed "1+1+1+2+N" will be implemented to enhance product offerings [3]. - Brand communication will be strengthened to improve consumer experience [3]. - The "Five New" framework (new products, new channels, new scenarios, new demographics, new demands) will support the cultivation of new growth points [3]. - Digital transformation will be accelerated to adapt to changing market conditions [3]. - The company plans to solidify its core business while exploring new ventures [3]. Group 2: Focus on Consumer Demand - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with a projected per capita beer consumption in China of 30.5 liters in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [4]. - There is a growing demand for mid-range and premium beers, driven by consumer preferences for quality, personalized experiences, and value for money [4]. - The company aims to meet evolving consumer needs through new products, channels, and scenarios, targeting demographics such as Generation Z, women, high-net-worth individuals, and the elderly [4]. Group 3: Emphasis on Sales Growth - The product strategy includes a focus on classic, pure draft, and white beer as core growth products, alongside the development of fresh products and high-end offerings [5]. - The southern market is identified as a growth highlight, with new consumption scenarios and product launches showing initial success [5]. - International expansion will target potential markets in South Korea, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and West Africa to drive overall sales growth [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [7] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, indicating resilience and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters [7] - The gross profit margin improved, with a net profit margin rising to 16.64%, reflecting better operational efficiency [7] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management enhancements [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, 34.783 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.909 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.59%, 3.48%, and 3.24% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.845 billion yuan in 2025, 5.350 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.736 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 11.51%, 10.43%, and 7.21% respectively [1][8] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2025, 3.92 yuan in 2026, and 4.20 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.75 in 2025 to 18.38 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [8] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, with expectations for marginal acceleration in sales growth in Q2 and Q3 due to low base effects [8] - The gross margin improved, and the net profit margin continued to rise, reaching 16.64% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management strengthening [8] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is updated to 4.845 billion, 5.350 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [8] - The report provides detailed financial projections, including total revenue and net profit growth rates, with expected revenue of 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.59% year-on-year increase [9]