新澳股份 20260127 摘要 化纤面料、皮毛市场及毛发行业订单显著增加，内销价格基本与羊毛价 格同步上涨，原材料考核价格调整频率加快，四季度订单保持高位增长， 预计 2026 年 1 月订单将高速增长。 预计 2026 年羊毛价格将维持上涨态势，或涨至"难以下手"程度，上 半年业绩确定性高，下半年无需过度担忧。公司对 2026 年信心较过去 三四年更强，期望实现 20%左右的增长。 现有交期约 45 天，宁夏和越南新投产项目使产能增量超 20%。一来二 期 3 万锭车间建设中，宁夏 4 万吨运行后或有 3 万吨增量，计划 2027 年投产，产能扩张前提是利用率达 90%以上。 2026 年新增产能预计增长 10%-15%，价格上涨及订单增加共同推动 收入增长约 20%。部分外贸品牌锁定价格，可能无法完全享受涨价红利， 利润增长或与收入增长不同步。 羊毛价格已从底部上涨约 40%，新增订单按涨价后价格计算，需让利客 户。预计至少一半以上的涨价红利可转化为自身收益。2026 年 6 月底 前羊毛价格将保持坚挺，全年涨幅或达 30%-50%。 Q&A 请介绍一下 2025 年四季度及 2026 年的一些投产、产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to release profit elasticity in 2026 due to rising wool prices, with a resilient performance in 2025 despite industry pressures [4][8] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast slightly, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.62, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 10.54 yuan based on a 17x PE valuation for 2025 [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 4,438 million yuan in 2023 to 6,050 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% [6] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 484 million yuan in 2023 to 755 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 11.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 404 million yuan in 2023 to 624 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 11.2% [6] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 18.6% in 2023 to 21.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [6] Market Performance Summary - The company's stock price as of January 13, 2026, is 8.9 yuan, with a target price of 10.54 yuan, suggesting a potential upside [1] - The stock has shown strong absolute performance over various time frames, including a 45.76% increase over the past year [1]

Core Insights - Australian wool prices have recently entered a new upward trend, with a 7.64% increase in November and reaching 1521 AUD per 100 kg (approximately 6963.14 RMB per 100 kg) by December 5, marking a 33.19% increase compared to the same period last year [1][3] - China accounts for 80% to 85% of Australia's wool exports, with strong demand for wool raw materials driven by low domestic inventory and pre-holiday stocking by traders and factories [3][4] - The Australian wool market is expected to develop positively by 2026, contingent on improved seasonal conditions and deeper cooperation between Australia and China in the wool industry [3] Price Trends - Year-to-date, Australian wool prices have increased by 31.80%, with November marking the second wave of price increases following a surge in late September and early October [1] - The price volatility of wool has led to challenges for manufacturers in managing inventory and costs, with high-end textile products maintaining strong prices while mid-range products see slight adjustments [4] Market Demand - Wool products such as wool sweaters, scarves, and blankets are popular this winter, with some imported Australian wool blankets selling over 100,000 units on e-commerce platforms [3] - There is a noticeable price disparity in wool garments, with consumers reporting higher prices for similar styles compared to last year, and a reduction in the availability of cost-effective options [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recent increase in wool prices, which is projected to enhance gross margins and order intake [2][5]. - The company is steadily advancing its capacity planning and optimizing its domestic and international production layout [3]. - The company is deepening its global market presence to meet diverse customer needs through participation in various international textile exhibitions [4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.3 billion with a year-on-year growth of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million, up 3% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.9 billion, reflecting a 1% increase, and a net profit of 380 million, which is a 2% increase [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 470 million, 550 million, and 630 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [5]. Market Dynamics - Wool prices have been on the rise, with the Australian wool trading index showing a price of approximately 1001 USD/KG as of October 9, 2025, marking a 22% increase from the end of August [2]. - The increase in wool prices is anticipated to stimulate customer ordering behavior, as downstream clients may increase their purchases of fine wool yarn to better control costs [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion plans, including a 50,000 spindle high-end fine wool yarn project in Vietnam, with the first phase of 20,000 spindles gradually coming into production [3]. - The company’s subsidiary in Yinchuan has completed the installation of a 20,000 spindle high-quality fine wool yarn project, which is expected to release capacity in the second half of the year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has initiated a "key customer strategy" to systematically categorize high-value clients, deeply understand their needs, and provide customized solutions to establish long-term stable partnerships [4].