海外利率系列点评 降息后美债利率走势推演 2025 年 09 月 19 日 不及预期：危机期间，风险补偿性的期限溢价上升，使得长短端分离。不及预期 （过度预期了降息节奏）的情况更多发生于 08 年金融危机期间，1 个月期国债 利率大幅低于目标利率区间，而风险补偿性的期限溢价上升，使得长短端分离， 降息对于长端没有产生即时性的显著影响。 正常消化（与本次降息模式类似）：平稳-小幅上行-新数据后风险重估。正常消化 模式下，市场往往处于双重风险的困境中，对于加息与降息的持续性存有争议。 10 年期国债利率往往先经历 3-5 个交易日的平稳期，10 年期国债利率波动极 小。1 周后随着市场重估长端风险利率上行 7-10bp。3 周后随着新数据的公布， 市场开展新的交易模式，交易逻辑根据数据表现分化。 提前完全消化：短端平稳，长端平稳下行。提前完全消化模式下，经济环境稳定， 降息更多是基于全球经济增速放缓下的预防式降息，市场与联储均对于降息不存 在太大的分歧，短端利率平稳，长端利率随着降息预期持续平滑下行，以 19 年 7 月末为例，30 个交易日（约为两次会议间隔）平均长端利率下降 50bp。 展望未来：很可能复刻" ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act has resolved the U.S. debt ceiling issue, leading to market concerns about a significant increase in U.S. Treasury supply in Q3, potentially repeating the rapid interest rate rise seen in 2023Q3. The net issuance of Treasuries in Q3 may reach approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to 2020Q2, indicating substantial supply pressure. However, historical analysis suggests that this increase is already anticipated by the market, and a rapid rise in rates would require sustained economic growth to support it, making a repeat of the 2023Q3 scenario unlikely. If Treasury rates rise significantly in 2023Q3, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle [2][9]. Group 1 - The estimated net issuance of Treasuries for 2025Q3 is approximately $1.12 trillion, which is only second to the peak in 2020Q2 and exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in 2023Q3 [4][10][18]. - The net issuance of Treasuries is calculated as the sum of the fiscal deficit and changes in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, with the fiscal deficit for 2025Q3 estimated at $0.6 trillion and TGA net growth at $0.52 trillion [4][10][18]. - The actual quarterly financing amount from the Treasury is expected to be around $1.12 trillion, slightly higher than the financing amount during the supply panic in 2023Q3 [19]. Group 2 - The supply panic in 2023Q3 was primarily due to the actual quarterly financing amount significantly exceeding expectations, with a financing amount of $1.01 trillion compared to an expected $0.85 trillion [5][23][25]. - The TGA balance at the beginning of 2023Q3 was lower than anticipated due to the debt ceiling issue, which contributed to the supply panic [5][25][26]. - For 2025Q3, the expected Treasury supply is anticipated to align with market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of the 2023Q3 panic [26][28]. Group 3 - The pressure from maturing Treasuries in Q3 is not expected to be significant, with a total maturity amount of approximately $7.2 trillion for 2025Q3, which does not represent a substantial increase compared to historical data [6][33]. - The total maturity amount for medium- and long-term Treasuries in 2025 is estimated at $3.3 trillion, with $0.85 trillion maturing in 2025Q3 [6][33]. Group 4 - The total issuance of Treasuries for 2025 is estimated at $30.6 trillion, with $8.32 trillion expected in 2025Q3, indicating a high issuance pressure [7][36]. - Adjusting the debt issuance structure by increasing the proportion of short-term debt could alleviate some pressure on long-term debt issuance, but it cannot fully offset the issuance pressure in Q3 [7][45]. - The historical trend shows that the proportion of medium- and long-term debt issuance has decreased, with the current structure potentially leading to excessive short-term debt issuance that the market may struggle to absorb [7][42][44].