沪铜产业日报 2025/11/26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,590.00 | -10.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,893.50 | +75.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -10.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 204,728.00 | +5146.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -22,92 ...

摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美联储9月例会降息，全球多数股指延续上涨 全球多数股指延续上涨，人民币快速升值。 当周，标普500上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%；10Y美债 收益率上行8.0bp至4.1%；美元指数上行0.0%至97.65，离岸人民币升值至7.1196；WTI原油持平前值62.7 美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.1%至3685.9美元/盎司。 中美第四轮经贸会谈：TikTok问题达共识，贸易议题进展有限。 9月14日至15日，中美经贸第四轮双边 会议在西班牙马德里进行，双方就TikTok问题的解决机制达成基本框架共识，但贝森特表态称贸易相关 议题进展有限。中美双方领导人已于9月19日通话。 美联储9月例会降息25BP，美国8月零售销售强于预期。 美联储9月例会降息25BP至4.00-4.25%，上修经 济预测、通胀预测，点阵图显示2025年降息空间共3次；美国8月零售销售环比0.6%，市场预期-0.2%，主 要由网购、餐饮服务消费改善推动。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美联储9月例会降息，全球多数股指延续 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-09-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 835.08 | -7 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9906 | -202 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 96007 | -8053 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 171891 | -23613 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 165539 | -7305 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 119104 | -10720 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 54126 | 900 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1221428 | -9833 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 834.6 | -1.2 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 9926 | -178 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillations [1] - Alumina: Oscillating at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are analyzed, with aluminum expected to range - bound, alumina to oscillate at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate decision is in a "four - way battle" situation, and the strong growth of US retail sales in August may influence the Fed's decision [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,975 yuan, down 45 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,712 US dollars, up 8 US dollars. Trading volume and open interest showed different changes compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,979 yuan, up 44 yuan. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,480 yuan, down 65 yuan. Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4,562.01 yuan, up 19.25 yuan. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,083 yuan, down 11 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 170 yuan, up 8 yuan. The three - place inventory totaled 48,620 tons, up 102 tons [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. - **US Economic News**: The Fed's interest - rate decision has a "four - way battle" situation. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with strong consumer spending potentially influencing the Fed's decision [3].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 shows an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of 2.6% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted GDP amount for Q2 is $5.9 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth of 3% [1] - The GDP growth rate is positioned as the 5th highest in the last 14 quarters, indicating a relatively strong performance [1] Group 2: GDP Composition - Personal consumption accounts for approximately 68% of GDP, private investment around 18%, government spending about 17%, and net exports at -3% [2] - Retail sales in June reached $720 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [2] - Core retail sales, which make up about three-quarters of total sales, amounted to $533 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - The reduction in trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP growth, with Q2 trade deficit shrinking from $3,906 billion in Q1 to $1,921 billion in Q2, a decrease of 51% [4] - Q2 exports totaled $846.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while imports decreased by 2% [4] - Private investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year rate of -15.6% in Q2, contributing negatively to GDP [6] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - July saw only 70,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below expectations, with previous months' figures revised downwards [5] - The unemployment rate, while low at 4.2%, is showing signs of a potential increase, indicating underlying labor market weaknesses [5] - The labor market's performance is critical as it reflects the overall economic health and consumer spending capacity [5] Group 5: Economic Challenges - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to negatively impact personal consumption, private investment, and net exports in the short term [3] - The overall economic growth appears to be uneven, with concerns about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory [4] - The real estate market is cooling, with new home sales down 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the housing sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resilient consumer spending trend in the U.S., with June retail sales exceeding expectations by growing 0.6%, and core retail sales increasing by 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight decline in consumer confidence, consumers are maintaining spending levels, driven by an "opportunistic" mindset towards purchasing big-ticket items, indicating a robust economic foundation [3] - Labor market data shows strength, with initial jobless claims dropping by 7,000 to 221,000, a three-month low, which supports consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold T+D indicates key resistance levels between 778-811 yuan/gram and important support levels between 761-790 yuan/gram [4] - A breakthrough above 785 yuan/gram could open up upward movement towards the critical level of 820 yuan/gram, while a drop below 750 yuan/gram may lead to further declines [4] - Current prices are at a critical decision point, necessitating close monitoring of breakout directions [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of the US retail sales and import price index for May at 20:30 Beijing time [1]