1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% during the September meeting, revising economic and inflation forecasts upward, indicating potential for three more rate cuts by 2025 [1][42] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.2% and the Nasdaq index increased by 2.2% during the week, reflecting a positive market response [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of a decline of 0.2%, driven by improvements in online shopping and dining services [1][46] Group 2 - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a consensus on the TikTok issue, but limited progress was made on trade-related topics, with U.S. tariffs on China remaining high at 40.36% [1][28] - The average tariff rate for the U.S. on global imports is 9.75%, with significant contributions from China, which accounted for approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [1][28][31] Group 3 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.0 basis points to 4.1%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment following the Fed's decision [1][10] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey's yield dropping by 83.0 basis points to 29.6% [1][13] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index and its technology sector saw increases of 5.1% and 1.1% respectively, while the financial and real estate sectors experienced declines [1][7] - In the Eurozone, most sectors declined, with communication services and materials down by 3.0% and 2.2% respectively, while technology and non-essential consumer sectors rose [1][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%–4.25%. It also warns of potential price corrections after the market fully digests the interest rate cut expectations and suggests a strategy of lightly shorting on price increases. The report recommends focusing on the price range of 800 - 850 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 835.08 yuan/gram, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,906 yuan/kilogram, down 202 yuan [3]. - The positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract were 96,007 lots, down 8,053 lots; the positions of the Shanghai Silver main contract were 171,891 lots, down 23,613 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 165,539 lots, down 7,305 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 119,104 lots, down 10,720 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 54,126 kilograms, up 900 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,221,428 kilograms, down 9,833 kilograms [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 834.6 yuan/gram, down 1.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9,926 yuan/kilogram, down 178 yuan [3]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 0.48 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 20 yuan/kilogram, up 24 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, up 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,217.84 tons, up 64.94 tons [3]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 261,740 contracts, up 12,210 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 53,937 contracts, down 1,986 contracts [3]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [3]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.3%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.02%, down 0.07% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.42%, down 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.43%, down 0.48% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor, and Trump signed the appointment document; the US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed governor Cook could remain in office [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the market had digested a 25 - basis - point rate cut and was pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year [3]. - The US House Republicans proposed a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1st, but it lacked healthcare policies demanded by Democrats [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales up 2.1% year - on - year; manufacturing output in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillations [1] - Alumina: Oscillating at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are analyzed, with aluminum expected to range - bound, alumina to oscillate at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate decision is in a "four - way battle" situation, and the strong growth of US retail sales in August may influence the Fed's decision [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,975 yuan, down 45 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,712 US dollars, up 8 US dollars. Trading volume and open interest showed different changes compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,979 yuan, up 44 yuan. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,480 yuan, down 65 yuan. Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4,562.01 yuan, up 19.25 yuan. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,083 yuan, down 11 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 170 yuan, up 8 yuan. The three - place inventory totaled 48,620 tons, up 102 tons [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. - **US Economic News**: The Fed's interest - rate decision has a "four - way battle" situation. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with strong consumer spending potentially influencing the Fed's decision [3].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 shows an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of 2.6% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted GDP amount for Q2 is $5.9 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth of 3% [1] - The GDP growth rate is positioned as the 5th highest in the last 14 quarters, indicating a relatively strong performance [1] Group 2: GDP Composition - Personal consumption accounts for approximately 68% of GDP, private investment around 18%, government spending about 17%, and net exports at -3% [2] - Retail sales in June reached $720 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [2] - Core retail sales, which make up about three-quarters of total sales, amounted to $533 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - The reduction in trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP growth, with Q2 trade deficit shrinking from $3,906 billion in Q1 to $1,921 billion in Q2, a decrease of 51% [4] - Q2 exports totaled $846.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while imports decreased by 2% [4] - Private investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year rate of -15.6% in Q2, contributing negatively to GDP [6] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - July saw only 70,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below expectations, with previous months' figures revised downwards [5] - The unemployment rate, while low at 4.2%, is showing signs of a potential increase, indicating underlying labor market weaknesses [5] - The labor market's performance is critical as it reflects the overall economic health and consumer spending capacity [5] Group 5: Economic Challenges - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to negatively impact personal consumption, private investment, and net exports in the short term [3] - The overall economic growth appears to be uneven, with concerns about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory [4] - The real estate market is cooling, with new home sales down 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the housing sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resilient consumer spending trend in the U.S., with June retail sales exceeding expectations by growing 0.6%, and core retail sales increasing by 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight decline in consumer confidence, consumers are maintaining spending levels, driven by an "opportunistic" mindset towards purchasing big-ticket items, indicating a robust economic foundation [3] - Labor market data shows strength, with initial jobless claims dropping by 7,000 to 221,000, a three-month low, which supports consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold T+D indicates key resistance levels between 778-811 yuan/gram and important support levels between 761-790 yuan/gram [4] - A breakthrough above 785 yuan/gram could open up upward movement towards the critical level of 820 yuan/gram, while a drop below 750 yuan/gram may lead to further declines [4] - Current prices are at a critical decision point, necessitating close monitoring of breakout directions [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of the US retail sales and import price index for May at 20:30 Beijing time [1]