黄金逻辑是否真的会在2026年因亚洲货币而逆转？宏观变量的跟踪需要持续的数据和框架。你可以打开 见闻历 ，订阅"全球央行动态"与"外 汇关键数据"，让系统化的提醒帮你捕捉货币趋势的早期信号，不再错过宏观叙事切换的关键节点。 以下为采访要点总结： 以下为访谈内容实录： 全球市场"最脆弱的一环"？美债市场恐步日本后尘 现实情况是，无论美联储是在12月降息，还是在2026年进行更多次降息，现在大局已定：我们正在目睹美联储和美国财政部的合流。 什么会先崩溃？是股市、美元还是债券市场？我认为，最有可能的是债券市场。 再次以日本国债市场作为参考：它全年都在下跌，跌势还在加速，而股票市场则对此不以为意。 大多数人将黄金和白银视为通胀对冲工具，但它们实际上是对冲零利率的工具。 因此，我认为2026年的关键问题是：亚洲货币会升值吗？如果会，那么近年来许多行之有效的交易可能就不再奏效了。 所以我怀疑，我们此刻是否正在从"市场奖励花钱"的阶段，转向"市场开始奖励甩卖资产"的阶段。如果是这样，Anthropic或OpenAI的IPO将非常难以实现。 我认为AI存在一个内在矛盾：到了这个地步，数字已经如此庞大，以至于要让这些数字合理化 ...

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that US government bonds "will never default," despite warnings from industry leaders about a potential collapse in the bond market [1][3] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns at the Reagan National Economic Forum, indicating that excessive fiscal spending and quantitative easing could lead to cracks in the bond market, although he is uncertain when a crisis might occur [3] - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron highlighted that the focus is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising government debt, identifying the budget debate and fiscal condition as the biggest macroeconomic risks [3] Group 2 - The US government debt ceiling is set at $36.1 trillion, which was reached in early January, leading the Treasury to rely on "extraordinary measures" to avoid default [4] - Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit for the 2026 fiscal year could reach $2.2 trillion, with a deficit rate of 7%, exceeding market expectations, which may increase supply pressure on US bonds [4] - The rising deficit is expected to push up US bond yields and exacerbate the fiscal burden, potentially becoming a source of ongoing volatility for dollar assets [4]