突发。 据新华社25日消息，欧洲信用评级机构范围评级公司日前发布报告，将美国主权信用评级从"AA"下调 至"AA-"，原因是美国公共财政状况持续恶化及政府治理标准下降。 该机构表示，美国公共财政持续恶化主要表现在财政赤字持续高企、利息支出不断上升以及预算灵活性受 限。这些因素共同推动政府债务水平持续攀升。 报告预计，若缺乏实质性改革，美国政府债务占国内生产 总值（GDP）比例到2030年将升至140%，远高于大多数主权国家。 报告指出，政府治理标准下降也是评级下调重要原因。该机构认为，美国行政权力日益集中，特朗普政府 多次无视法院命令、挑战司法权威、规避国会监督，降低了政策制定的可预测性和稳定性，增加了政策失 误风险。美国在与主要贸易伙伴关税谈判中表现出的不确定性即为例证。 该机构还表示，美国评级展望为"稳定"，未来12至18个月内评级上调与下调风险总体平衡。报告强调，下 行风险包括债务水平持续上升，以及美元作为全球储备货币的地位可能明显削弱，从而导致全球对美国国 债需求下降。 就在今年10月22日，美国财政部最新公布的数据显示，截至10月21日，美国联邦政府债务规模总额首次 超过了38万亿美元。 据悉，这距 ...

Group 1 - A large-scale strike and protest occurred in France on September 18, with over 500,000 participants nationwide, including approximately 55,000 in Paris, in response to government austerity measures [1][3] - The protests involved workers from various sectors, including transportation, education, electricity, and healthcare, calling for a "fairer" fiscal plan, with reports of violence and property damage during demonstrations in cities like Paris, Lyon, and Rennes [3] - The French government reported over 300 arrests due to the protests, and some cultural sites, such as the Louvre and the Musée d'Orsay, temporarily closed certain exhibition halls [3] Group 2 - On September 12, Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [4][5] - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP, with public debt totaling 114% of GDP, contributing to political instability and uncertainty regarding the passage of the 2026 budget [5] - The downgrade may have dual impacts on France's financing environment, with some analysts suggesting limited effects on interest rates due to market expectations, while others warn of potential sell-off pressure on French government bonds, increasing financing costs [5]

Group 1 - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate concerns about the vulnerability of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly regarding the intermediary capabilities of traders, the growing presence of hedge funds, and low market depth [1] - Participants noted that while regulatory capital levels remain sufficient, some banks are still susceptible to rising long-term yields and unrealized losses on related assets [1] - The recent passage of the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" by Congress mandates stablecoin issuers to hold dollar reserves on a 1:1 basis, which may increase demand for U.S. Treasury assets [1] Group 2 - As of August 12, the total U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, resulting in a per capita debt burden of over $108,000 [2] - The U.S. government has been increasing its debt at an average rate of approximately $1 trillion every 100 days since the passage of the "Fiscal Responsibility Act" in June 2023 [2] - The "Debt Ceiling" established by Congress sets a maximum borrowing limit for the federal government, which needs to be raised or suspended to avoid government shutdowns and defaults [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt have led to market apprehension, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating for the first time in history [3] - The FOMC members acknowledged that recent inflation indicators suggest a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [3] - Most committee members agreed to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, despite some support for a 25 basis point rate cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [3]

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that US government bonds "will never default," despite warnings from industry leaders about a potential collapse in the bond market [1][3] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns at the Reagan National Economic Forum, indicating that excessive fiscal spending and quantitative easing could lead to cracks in the bond market, although he is uncertain when a crisis might occur [3] - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron highlighted that the focus is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising government debt, identifying the budget debate and fiscal condition as the biggest macroeconomic risks [3] Group 2 - The US government debt ceiling is set at $36.1 trillion, which was reached in early January, leading the Treasury to rely on "extraordinary measures" to avoid default [4] - Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit for the 2026 fiscal year could reach $2.2 trillion, with a deficit rate of 7%, exceeding market expectations, which may increase supply pressure on US bonds [4] - The rising deficit is expected to push up US bond yields and exacerbate the fiscal burden, potentially becoming a source of ongoing volatility for dollar assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - California's Governor Newsom has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and have severely disrupted the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on California - California, as the largest importing state and manufacturing hub in the U.S., plays a crucial role in international trade, with a total import and export volume of $675 billion in 2024, and 45% of exports going to Mexico, Canada, and China [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies have significantly impacted California's economy, causing supply chain disruptions, a 12%-15% increase in raw material costs, and hindering 60,000 small businesses from exporting [3]. - The lawsuit against the Trump administration is a direct response to the economic damage caused, including severe losses for farmers and technology companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has warned that Trump's tariff policies are likely to push inflation up, creating a dilemma for the Fed between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [5]. - Economic experts and financial institutions are pessimistic about the outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of recession if Trump continues trade wars, while JPMorgan estimates the likelihood at 60% [5]. - Standard & Poor's has also warned that the U.S. sovereign credit rating could be downgraded from its current AA+ level due to deteriorating fiscal conditions linked to tariff policies [5]. Group 3: Bond Market and Public Sentiment - The trade war initiated by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the bond market, leading to a record increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield reaching 4.5% [6]. - The rising yields on U.S. debt, which has reached $36 trillion, could increase annual interest payments by nearly $100 billion, further straining the U.S. fiscal situation [6]. - Public sentiment is largely against Trump's tariff policies, with 72% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University poll believing that tariffs will harm the economy in the short term, and 53% believing the same for the long term [8].

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to concerns over the growing $36 trillion debt, becoming the last of the three major credit rating agencies to do so [3] - The downgrade has raised concerns in the market, with analysts noting that it has brought many existing worries back into focus [3] - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, saw their deposit ratings downgraded by Moody's, citing the weakened government support for these banks following the sovereign rating downgrade [4] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33 points, or 0.32%, closing at 42,792.07 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw minor increases [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.52% before settling at 4.47% [4] - Notable stock movements included a 1% increase in Microsoft shares, while Apple and Tesla saw declines of 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively [5]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary expressing skepticism towards Moody's, labeling it as a "lagging indicator" [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that tariff discussions are focused on 18 key partnerships, warning that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2 if negotiations are not sincere [1] - Exports from the EU to the U.S. surged by 59% ahead of Trump's "liberation day," resulting in a record trade surplus [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's president reported constructive discussions with the U.S. regarding foreign exchange issues, asserting that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator [1] - ECB Governing Council member Villeroy hinted at the possibility of lowering interest rates below 2%, indicating no reason for a further 50 basis point cut in the foreseeable future [1] - ECB Chief Economist Lane announced that an updated strategy will be released in the second half of the year, incorporating U.S. tariff uncertainties into June's forecasts [1] Group 3 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Shinichi, indicated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, further interest rate hikes will continue [1] - Canadian Finance Minister noted that most tariffs on the U.S. remain in place [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, resulting in the loss of the highest rating from all three major rating agencies [1][12] - The downgrade coincides with the critical phase of Trump's tax cut plan and a budget impasse [1][12] - The report from GF Securities indicates that the uncertainty surrounding the tax cut plan and the 2026 fiscal budget may not lead to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market [1][13] Group 2 - The 2025 fiscal budget remains unresolved, with Congress relying on continuing resolutions until the end of September [2] - The House and Senate have set ambitious tax cut and debt ceiling increase targets, with the House proposing a $4.5 trillion tax cut and $2 trillion in spending cuts over ten years [2][4] - The Senate's targets include a $3.8 trillion tax cut and a $1.2 trillion spending cut, with a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [4] Group 3 - The proposed tax cut plan aims to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, potentially increasing the average tax burden on ordinary taxpayers by 22% if not passed [5] - The 2026 fiscal budget proposal indicates that non-defense discretionary spending will decrease by over $160 billion (23%) compared to 2025 [5][9] - Significant cuts are expected in various departments, including a 56% reduction in the National Science Foundation and a 54% cut in the Environmental Protection Agency [8] Group 4 - Historical experience suggests that while rating adjustments may lead to short-term bond yield increases and stock market volatility, the mid-term impact is likely to be limited [13] - Current economic data in the U.S. shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession in consumer spending or durable goods orders [15]

清明节休假，全家老老小小的住酒店度假，这会晚上都去游泳池玩水了，就我一个人在房间里上钟。 今天虽然不开盘，但非常热闹，发生的事不少，你们听我一件一件说。 首先是中国决定对美发起关税报复，对原产于美国的所有商品加征34%关税，同时把一批美国企业列入 了出口管控管制名单。不仅态度十分强硬，而且反应迅速，美国那边刚宣布第二天中国的反制措施就出 来了，说明很早就已经有相关预案，就等美国出招立刻予以还击。 两边互加34%关税，这外贸基本上就没法做了，几千亿美元的生意，一个不打算再进口了，一个不打算 再出口了，一拍两散，就这么着吧。 美国之所以如此蛮横，底气在于他们是全球最大的贸易逆差国，而且比第2到第10的贸易逆差额加起来 还多，大部分国家在对美贸易中是赚钱的，所以不到万不得已不愿和美国翻脸。另外美国还是全球最大 的消费市场，将近20万亿的规模，占全球的1/3，如果放弃美国市场，多出来的商品卖到哪是一个很棘 手的问题。 具体到中美贸易，去年美国从中国进口5246亿，中国从美国进口1636亿，那显而易见的一笔账，都收 34%关税的话美国能收到更多的钱。但即便如此中国依然在第一时间做出了反击，在全球大多数国家和 地区对美关 ...