Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: China Securities Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index **Model Construction Idea**: The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed central enterprises with high dividend yields and stable dividend levels within the scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect, focusing on high-dividend assets[9][55] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: Select securities from the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index sample[57] 2. **Liquidity Screening**: Exclude securities with a median monthly turnover rate below 0.1% over the past 12 or 3 months unless their average daily trading amount exceeds HKD 50 million in the past year[57] 3. **Selection Criteria**: - Select securities controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) or listed in the SASAC central enterprise directory - Include the top-ranked securities in terms of daily average market capitalization in the financial and real estate sectors, and all securities in other industries - Further filter securities that have paid dividends for three consecutive years, with an average dividend payout ratio between 0 and 1 over the past three years - Rank the remaining securities by their average dividend yield over the past three years and select the top 50 as index components[57] **Model Evaluation**: The index emphasizes high-dividend attributes, low valuation, and stable profitability, making it attractive for investors seeking defensive and income-generating strategies[9][55] Model Backtesting Results - **China Securities Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index**: - Annualized Dividend Yield (2021-2025): Above 8% consistently[9][72][73] - Annualized Volatility (2025): 18.00% (Price Index), 17.83% (Total Return Index), lower than most common Hang Seng broad-based indices[86] - Annualized Return (2025): 17.27% (Price Index), 26.83% (Total Return Index), significantly outperforming other indices[40][86] - Cumulative Return (2016-2025): 140.08%, with excess returns of 97.28% and 123.19% over the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index and Hang Seng Index, respectively[80][83] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: High Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on securities with high and stable dividend yields to capture income-generating opportunities and defensive characteristics[9][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the average dividend yield over the past three years for each security 2. Rank securities by their average dividend yield 3. Select the top 50 securities with the highest average dividend yield as the factor sample[57] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong income-generating potential and defensive attributes, particularly in volatile market conditions[9][55] Factor Backtesting Results - **High Dividend Yield Factor**: - Annualized Dividend Yield (2021-2025): Above 8% consistently, outperforming other common Hang Seng indices[9][72][73] - Annualized Volatility (2025): 18.00% (Price Index), 17.83% (Total Return Index), indicating better risk control compared to other indices[86] - Annualized Return (2025): 17.27% (Price Index), 26.83% (Total Return Index), showcasing strong return potential[40][86] - Cumulative Return (2016-2025): 140.08%, with significant excess returns over other indices[80][83]

股 营收增幅进一步提升，利润增速由负转正 工商银行(601398) 工商银行 2025 年三季报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 工商银行三季度利润增速由负转正，营收延续良好增长势头，手续费及佣金收入逐 季回暖，其他非息收入表现亮眼，资产质量保持稳健。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 843,070 | 821,803 | 833,520 | 857,395 | 897,469 | | (+/-)% | -3.7% | - ...

《广东省金融支持企业开展产业链整合兼并行动方案》日前印发。其中提到，鼓励商业银行机构按照市 场化、法治化原则，综合客户信用评级、借款金额等因素，对符合条件的产业链整合兼并项目，合理确 定贷款利率。鼓励银行机构重点支持企业数智化改造及产业链延伸项目，并为涉及电子信息制造、新能 源汽车、生物医药和医疗器械、人工智能和机器人、新材料等战略性产业的企业开展产业链整合兼并项 目提供信贷支持，在政策允许范围内给予利率、贷款期限等方面优惠，合理匹配产业周期。推动降低企 业融资成本，对先进制造业和科技型企业符合条件的贷款提供财政贴息。 ...

Core Points - The strategic cooperation signing ceremony between the City Data Group and four rural commercial banks in Jiangsu marks a significant step towards the collaboration between public data operation and the financial sector, aligning with national digital economy development strategies [1][2] - The City Data Group will leverage high-value public data resources to provide regulatory compliance and secure data technology support to the four banks, enhancing their ability to meet financial service demands [1][2] Group 1 - The cooperation aims to focus on inclusive finance, rural revitalization, agricultural wholesale markets, and convenient services, creating specialized financial data products [2] - The banks will utilize their local service advantages and digital platforms to extend financial and convenient services to local enterprises and residents, promoting the empowerment of public data to the real economy [2] - This collaboration establishes a platform for resource sharing, complementary advantages, business promotion, and mutual benefits, enhancing the data element market ecosystem in Zhenjiang [2] Group 2 - The partnership is expected to deepen the integration of data and finance, creating a model for "digital + finance" cooperation, which will inject new momentum into the development of the digital economy in Zhenjiang [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China expressed hope for the Netherlands to show genuine cooperation regarding the ASML semiconductor issue and to propose substantive solutions quickly [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [1] - The Financial Regulatory Administration is set to release a revised "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and acquisitions, particularly for technology enterprises [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that 6G standardization research has fully commenced this year, with over 300 key technologies reserved [1] - The Ministry of Water Resources reported that from January to October, water conservancy construction investment reached 1,009.47 billion yuan, creating 2.484 million jobs [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicated that the national seed supply guarantee rate has reached 80%, an increase of 10 percentage points since 2020 [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that 592 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board achieved a total operating income of 1,105.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] Group 2 - Starbucks Workers United announced that employees across the U.S. have officially begun a strike, starting with 65 stores, aiming to be the largest and longest strike in Starbucks history [2] - Semiconductor company SMIC expects its fourth-quarter revenue to remain flat or increase by 2% compared to the previous quarter, with a gross margin between 18% and 20% [3] - Canadian solar company Canadian Solar's controlling shareholder anticipates total revenue of 1.3 to 1.5 billion U.S. dollars for the fourth quarter [3] - Derun Group is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Lide Man plans to acquire 70% of Xiansheng Xiangrui for 1.733 billion yuan [3] - Haige Communication's wholly-owned subsidiary intends to increase capital and introduce strategic investors [3]

Macroeconomic Insights - Global asset performance shows mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.29% and the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.08%, while developed markets like the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[6] - In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined, indicating economic slowdown, while consumer confidence continued to drop according to the University of Michigan index[7] Inflation and Prices - October CPI in China rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.1%, indicating a stable inflation environment with core service prices reaching their highest level since March 2024[11] - The rise in core CPI is attributed to reduced food drag and increased service contributions, with gold prices significantly impacting jewelry costs[13] Trade and Exports - In October, China's exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.0%, leading to a slight decrease in trade surplus[16] - The export structure shows weakness in non-U.S. markets, particularly the EU, while exports to the U.S. and ASEAN remained strong[18] Investment Strategies - The asset allocation report suggests an overweight position in Chinese A-shares and industrial commodities, with equity allocation set at 45% and bonds at 45%[22] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI industry trends and the potential for volatility in global equity markets, recommending a focus on quality assets[23] Market Dynamics - The trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across indices, indicating a cautious market sentiment[28] - The report highlights a decrease in northbound capital flow, with a net outflow of 2.6 billion CNY in the recent week, reflecting investor sentiment shifts[34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q3 2025, under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and the new public fund fee regulations, the bond market weakened, and the bond fund market scale declined. Active bond funds adopted a "defensive" strategy of reducing leverage and shortening duration. In terms of performance, hybrid secondary bond funds had outstanding returns, while other types of funds showed different degrees of decline. In terms of bond holdings, active bond funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds and reduced their holdings of other bond types. In terms of heavy - held credit bonds, they increased their holdings of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds and reduced their holdings of financial bonds [1][2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the Bond Fund Market in Q3 2025 - The number of bond funds increased, with 3,936 funds at the end of Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 74 funds or 1.92%. The market scale decreased, with a total market scale of 10.69 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan or 2.23%. The fund shares had a net redemption of 475.2 billion shares, with a redemption ratio of 4.95% [12]. - In terms of market structure, medium - and long - term pure bond funds dominated the market, accounting for 55.5% of the total scale, followed by passive index bond funds at 14.7% [14]. - Different types of funds had different trends. Pure bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds had net redemptions and a decrease in market scale, while hybrid secondary bond funds and convertible bond funds had net subscriptions and an increase in market scale [17]. 2. Quarterly Performance of Active Bond Funds 2.1 Performance: Significantly Improved Quarterly Returns of Hybrid Secondary Bond Funds - In Q3 2025, the single - quarter weighted average returns of short - term pure bond funds, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, hybrid primary bond funds, and hybrid secondary bond funds were 0.17%, - 0.19%, 0.48%, and 4.31% respectively. Compared with the previous quarter, the return of hybrid secondary bond funds increased by 262.5 BP, while those of other funds decreased [22]. 2.2 Leverage Ratio and Duration: Reducing Leverage and Shortening Duration - At the end of Q3 2025, the single - quarter weighted average leverage ratios of short - term pure bond funds, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, hybrid primary bond funds, and hybrid secondary bond funds were 110.96%, 119.72%, 113.12%, and 108.14% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter decreases [25]. - The weighted average durations of heavy - held bonds were 0.91 years, 2.80 years, 3.16 years, and 3.77 years respectively, also showing quarter - on - quarter decreases [28]. 2.3 Bond Holdings: Increasing Holdings of Convertible Bonds and Reducing Holdings of Other Bond Types - At the end of Q3 2025, the total bond holding market value of active bond funds decreased by 7.66% quarter - on - quarter. Only the market value of convertible bonds held by active bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter, while other bond types decreased to varying degrees [30]. - By fund type, the bond holding scales of pure bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds decreased, while that of hybrid secondary bond funds increased [33]. 3. Analysis of Heavy - Held Credit Bonds of Active Bond Funds 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Leading Increase in Holdings in Regions such as Jiangxi and Jiangsu - **Heavy - Held Region Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held urban investment bonds by active bond funds was 76.841 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.344 billion yuan. Regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong had large heavy - held market values. Active bond funds increased their holdings in regions such as Jiangxi and Jiangsu and reduced their holdings in regions such as Guangdong and Sichuan [35]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held high - rated urban investment subjects such as Hunan Expressway, Hanjiang State - owned Assets, and Tianjin Urban Construction. Subjects such as Jiangxi Communications Investment and Hanjiang State - owned Assets had leading increases in holdings [39]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Increasing Holdings in Transportation and Real Estate, Reducing Holdings in Petroleum and Petrochemicals and Non - bank Finance - **Heavy - Held Industry Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held industrial bonds by active bond funds was 129.823 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8.719 billion yuan. Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation had large holding scales. Active bond funds increased their holdings in industries such as transportation and real estate and reduced their holdings in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and non - bank finance [41]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held AAA - rated central and state - owned enterprises such as Central Huijin, State Grid, and China Guoxin. Subjects such as State Power Investment, China Chengtong, and Beijing Capital Tourism Group had leading increases in holdings [44]. 3.3 Financial Bonds: Leading Reduction in Holdings of Commercial Bank Tier 2 Capital Bonds - **Heavy - Held Variety Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, the market value of heavy - held financial bonds by active bond funds was 553.951 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.666 billion yuan. Ordinary commercial financial bonds and commercial bank tier 2 capital bonds accounted for the main scale. Active bond funds increased their holdings of ordinary commercial financial bonds and TLAC bonds and reduced their holdings of sub - debt, perpetual bonds, and tier 2 capital bonds [46]. - **Heavy - Held Subject Analysis**: At the end of Q3 2025, active bond funds mainly held large state - owned banks and joint - stock banks such as Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Everbright Bank. Subjects such as Shanghai Bank, Huatai Securities, and Ping An Bank had leading increases in holdings [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.13 CNY [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the retail loan growth for the company has shown a continuous upward trend, while the decline in net interest margin and net profit margin is slowing down each quarter. Core revenue growth is accelerating, supported by the progress in the transformation of village banks into branches, which further expands the company's development footprint [2][11]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials are as follows (in million CNY): - Revenue: 9,870 in 2023, expected to grow to 15,060 by 2027, with a CAGR of 12.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company: 3,282 in 2023, expected to reach 5,751 by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.9% [4]. - Book value per share (BVPS): Expected to increase from 8.99 in 2023 to 12.15 by 2027 [4]. - Return on equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 12.8% in 2023 to 13.8% by 2027 [4]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a year-on-year growth in total assets, loans, and deposits of 10.89%, 7.13%, and 9.69% respectively as of Q3 2025, with a significant loan increment of 5.3 billion CNY in the quarter [11]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 462.95% [11]. Growth Drivers - The ongoing transformation of village banks into branches is expected to accelerate, with the company having announced the absorption of eight village banks since October 2024, enhancing its market share in Jiangsu province [11]. - The report indicates that the company has successfully optimized its deposit pricing strategy, leading to a slight increase in the proportion of demand deposits [11].

Key Insights - The total financing amount raised by companies in mainland China in the global capital markets reached $92.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 120% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [1] - The number of issuances increased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 404 transactions, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16% in Q3 2025 [1] - The total amount raised from Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) was $15.5 billion, marking an 83% year-on-year increase and a 47% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The total amount raised from follow-on offerings reached $55.32 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 250%, although it decreased by 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The issuance of convertible bonds and equity-linked securities totaled $21.8 billion, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase and a 39% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Industry Performance - The industrial sector led the market with a 23% share, raising a total of $21.09 billion, which is a 98% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Following the industrial sector, the high-tech, energy and power, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors also contributed significantly to the capital raised [3] Underwriter Rankings - Morgan Stanley ranked first among underwriters for Chinese stocks and equity-linked securities in 2025 [4] - CITIC Securities and Gao Hua ranked second and third, respectively, with total underwriting amounts of $10.43 billion and $9.47 billion [5] Legal Advisory Rankings - Jingtian & Gongcheng ranked first among legal advisors for Chinese stock and equity-linked issuers [5] - In the underwriting legal advisor rankings, Jingtian & Gongcheng also held the top position [6] Bond Market Insights - The issuance of RMB bonds increased by 23% year-on-year, while the issuance of Panda bonds decreased by 18% compared to 2024 [8] - Government and institutional bond issuances accounted for approximately 12.1 trillion RMB, representing 52% of the market share, with a year-on-year growth of 32% [10] - CITIC led the RMB bond underwriting rankings, while the Bank of China ranked first in Panda bond underwriting [12] Syndicated Loan Market - The Bank of China led the syndicated and club loan rankings across all currencies, with a total amount of 22.065 billion RMB, holding a market share of 43.3% [16] - The overall syndicated loan market saw a significant decline, with a 51% decrease in loan amounts compared to the previous year [16]

Core Insights - Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, floods, and droughts, are becoming the new normal globally, significantly threatening human health and well-being [2] - The 2025 report from UCL and WHO indicates that global temperature rise leads to approximately one death per minute from heat-related diseases, with an average of 546,000 deaths annually from 2012 to 2021 [2] - The report criticizes the U.S. for its climate commitments, particularly after former President Trump withdrew from climate agreements, exacerbating the health impacts of climate change [2] Group 1 - The top 100 fossil fuel companies have raised their production forecasts, potentially tripling CO2 emissions beyond the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target [3] - In 2024, commercial banks are projected to invest a record $611 billion in the fossil fuel sector, compared to $532 billion in green sectors [3] - Governments are providing $2.5 billion daily in direct subsidies to fossil fuel companies, while extreme heat is causing significant economic losses due to reduced labor capacity [3] Group 2 - The average global exposure to lethal heat has increased, with individuals facing 19 days per year of extreme heat, 16 of which are attributed to human-induced climate change [3] - In 2024, extreme heat is expected to result in a loss of 639 billion hours of labor, with the least developed countries experiencing economic losses equivalent to 6% of their GDP [3] - Air pollution from fossil fuel combustion is responsible for millions of deaths annually, and the dry climate is contributing to wildfires, with smoke-related deaths projected to reach 154,000 in 2024 [3] Group 3 - The CEO of ClientEarth emphasizes that humanity is in an era of "climate consequences," shifting the focus from "if" to "when" accountability for climate impacts will occur [4] - There is a call for an immediate end to fossil fuel subsidies and increased investment in clean energy to safeguard future health [5]