证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250902 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250829 2025 年 09 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 9 月观点：本月对中证红利指数持谨慎态度。 ◼ 2025 年 9 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 600023.SH | 浙能电力 | 公用事业 | 2025/9/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 600803.SH | 新奥股份 | 公用事业 | 2025/9/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/9/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/9/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601166.SH | 兴业银行 | 银行 | 2025/9/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 600036.SH | 招 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook by President Trump marks an unprecedented attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve, escalating pressure on monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action is seen as a direct assault on the Federal Reserve's independence, with market analysts suggesting it could increase uncertainty regarding future policy directions [1]. - Edward Mills from Raymond James highlighted that this move signifies the White House's growing pressure on monetary policy [1]. - David Zervos from Jefferies Group argued that the Federal Reserve has never been truly independent and has faced increasing political pressure over the years [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, spot gold prices reached a two-week high, while the U.S. dollar index experienced a temporary decline [1]. Group 3: Responses from Key Figures - Lisa Cook responded to her dismissal by stating that there was no legal basis for Trump's claims and that she would continue her role in supporting the U.S. economy [3]. - Zervos noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted many "outrageous" policy calls during Biden's presidency but failed to address fiscal issues during a critical period of rising government spending [2].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.26 [Table_Industry] 商业银行/金融 区域动能强劲，扩表提速、风险趋良 重庆银行(601963) 重庆银行 2025 半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 重庆银行 2025H1 营收及归母净利润同比增速较 25Q1 小幅提升，存贷款同比多增， 资产质量持续改善。上调目标价至 12.3 元，维持增持评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 13,211 | 13,679 | 14,635 | 15,659 | 16,810 | | (+/-)% | -1.9% | 3.5% | 7.0% ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, macroeconomic policies, and the impact of U.S.-China relations on investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Confidence and Economic Transition** - China adopts a non-concessional strategy while the U.S. gradually concedes, leading to a gradual establishment of market confidence. The economy is transitioning away from real estate dependency towards manufacturing and high-tech industries, fostering optimism about future economic growth models [1][2] 2. **Stock Market Outlook** - The current stock market is characterized as a structural slow bull market, driven by two macro factors: U.S.-China relations and economic restructuring. The focus should be on dividend assets in the context of U.S.-China confrontation and technology assets in the context of cooperation [2][10] 3. **Bond Market Characteristics** - The bond market does not exhibit bear market characteristics despite stock market gains. A phase adjustment is normal due to prior accumulated gains, with interest rates at low levels and a long-term downward trend expected [3] 4. **Monetary Policy Direction** - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes stabilizing employment, maintaining economic growth, and promoting reasonable price recovery, indicating a loosening monetary policy direction [4] 5. **Macro-Prudential Management** - Focus on financial stability and prevention of systemic financial risks is crucial. Non-bank institutions are now included in the assessment of systemically important financial institutions, enhancing oversight [5] 6. **Central Bank Re-lending Support** - The central bank's re-lending support focuses on inclusive finance, green projects, and technology, with a balance of 3.8 trillion yuan. The loan growth rate for the elderly care industry is the highest, reflecting changes in credit allocation due to economic restructuring [6] 7. **Financial Support for Technological Innovation** - Financial support for technology innovation is vital, involving various stakeholders such as financial institutions and private equity firms, which help leverage more equity capital for future fundraising [7][8] 8. **Financial Stability Risk Prevention Tools** - Various tools for assessing financial stability risks include equity pledge financing and liquidity management for public funds, which help mitigate systemic risks [9] 9. **U.S.-China Trade Relations** - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations include a 90-day extension of a 24% reciprocal tariff suspension, with expectations for a meeting between leaders at the APEC conference. This has improved market risk appetite [11][12] 10. **Potential Risks in U.S.-China Negotiations** - China faces risks from U.S. negotiation tactics, particularly regarding secondary tariffs on energy, which could extend to other countries, including China [14] 11. **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes** - The U.S. has announced significant tariffs on copper and semiconductors, with potential expansions to other industries, which could impact market dynamics [15][16] 12. **Potential Sanction Risks in Financial Sector** - Risks of sanctions primarily affect Chinese concept stocks, although the actual impact is expected to be limited due to preparations for domestic companies to return [17] 13. **Federal Reserve Decision-Making Adjustments** - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce the cancellation of the average inflation target at the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, although the marginal impact is considered minimal [18] 14. **U.S. Treasury Financing Report Highlights** - The U.S. Treasury plans to replenish the TGA account to $850 billion, which may lead to a liquidity siphoning effect and increased volatility in overseas markets, affecting A-share risk appetite [19] 15. **Importance of Bank Reserves** - The U.S. banking system's reserve ratio must maintain at least 9% of GDP. A potential drop in reserves due to TGA withdrawals could impact market stability, necessitating close monitoring of liquidity conditions [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on macro-prudential management and the inclusion of non-bank institutions in systemic risk assessments highlight a shift towards a more comprehensive approach to financial stability [5] - The ongoing transition in credit allocation towards sectors like elderly care and green finance reflects broader economic restructuring trends [6]

分红率提升，村改支加快打开成长空间 常熟银行(601128) 常熟银行 2025 半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 常熟银行中报营收及归母净利润平稳保持两位数增长，公司拟首次实施中期分红， 分红率较 2024A 提升 5.47pct 至 25.24%。上调目标价至 9.1 元，维持增持评级。 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：调整公司 2025-2027 年净利润增速预测为 13.6%、13.4%、 13.3%(新增)，对应 BVPS 为 9.57(-1.14，受资本公积转增股本影响)、 10.90(-1.29)、12.28(新增)元/股。2025 年公司首次实施中期分红，分 红率为上半年归母净利润的 25.27%，我们预计全年分红或为 0.3 元 /股，分红率较 2024 年提升约 3pct 至 23%左右。叠加长期无风险利 率下行推动稳定红利资产估值提 ...

Group 1 - Baofang, the founder of Huaxing Capital, has reappeared after being missing for approximately two and a half years, but the company has stated he will no longer participate in daily management [1] - Huaxing Capital's operations are reported to be normal, with the executive committee now responsible for strategic advancement [1] - The new XPeng P7 model has received over 10,000 pre-orders in just 6 minutes and 37 seconds, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - Chery Automobile's chairman has ordered a reduction in mandatory Saturday overtime, aiming to improve employee work-life balance [2] - The company plans to streamline meetings by 30% and reduce the number of participants, reflecting a shift in management philosophy [2] - Chery's chairman acknowledged past management practices as inhumane and expressed a commitment to valuing employees' time [2] Group 3 - Hang Seng Bank reported a 30.46% decline in net profit for the first half of the year, with shareholder profit at HKD 6.88 billion [4] - The bank's net interest income also decreased by 7.39%, leading to a 7.4% drop in stock price on the day of the earnings release [4] - The new chairman emphasized a focus on diversifying income sources and building a future-oriented business model [4] Group 4 - The active management equity fund sector has seen a strong recovery, with 95% of funds achieving positive returns, averaging over 15% [6] - The medical industry theme funds have emerged as the biggest winners, with four funds doubling their returns [6] - Notably, Zhang Kun from E Fund leads with over 50 billion in assets under management, while some fund managers have reported negative returns [6] Group 5 - Hichain Energy's president has been taken into custody for allegedly infringing on trade secrets, but the company claims the technology in question is publicly known [7] - The company reassured stakeholders that the incident will not adversely affect its operations [7] Group 6 - Wang Hong has been appointed as the vice chairman of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, focusing on attracting long-term capital through ETFs [8] - GAC Honda has announced a leadership change, with Gao Hongxiang taking over from Li Jin as executive vice president [9] - The management reshuffle at GAC Honda has been confirmed, although the duration of Gao's term was denied as being publicly disclosed [9] Group 7 - In a significant leadership change, Ye Cai has been appointed as the chairman of Invesco Great Wall Fund Management, marking a transition in the management of this large asset management firm [11] - The new chairman's appointment is part of a broader restructuring within the company [11] Group 8 - Zhu Yong has been elected as the vice chairman of CITIC Securities, following a board meeting that approved his appointment [12] - This change reflects ongoing adjustments within the company's leadership structure [12] Group 9 - Wang Yijun has been approved as the chairman of Bank of Communications Investment, bringing extensive experience from his 31 years at the bank [13] - His leadership is expected to guide the investment firm through its strategic initiatives [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.3 CNY, up from the previous estimates [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's mid-year report for 2025 exceeded expectations, showing accelerated growth in revenue and net profit compared to Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio improved, and both non-performing loans and the non-performing loan ratio decreased, indicating enhanced asset quality [2][13]. - The revenue and net profit growth rates for H1 2025 were 2.6% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively, with Q2 2025 showing even stronger growth rates of 4.0% and 26.9% [13][15]. - The company has adjusted its net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.7%, 11.0%, and 10.4%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 174,365 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% compared to 2024. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 50,095 million CNY, marking a 10.7% increase from the previous year [4][14]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 10,069,070 million CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 5,768,937 million CNY [14]. - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to decline to 1.29% by 2026, while the provision coverage ratio is projected to be 183.15% [14]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 72% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the market index [11]. - The current market capitalization stands at 417,391 million CNY, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.73 for 2025 [7][17]. Risk Management - The company has effectively managed risks, with a non-performing loan ratio that has decreased for seven consecutive quarters, reaching 1.31% by the end of Q2 2025 [15][13]. - The provision coverage ratio has increased to 194%, indicating a strong capacity to cover potential loan losses [15][13].

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 21 to July 25, 2025, a total of 414 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 592.83 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 47.80% [3] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 202 issues with a scale of 219.28 billion, a week-on-week increase of 24.66%, making up 36.99% of the total issuance [3] - City investment bonds totaled 166 issues with a scale of 109.63 billion, a week-on-week increase of 2.90%, representing 18.49% of the total [3] - Financial bonds had 46 issues with a scale of 263.92 billion, a week-on-week increase of 122.44%, accounting for 44.52% of the total [3] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.35 years, with industrial bonds at 3.38 years, city investment bonds at 3.75 years, and financial bonds at 1.66 years [3] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.08%, with industrial bonds at 2.01%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [3] - A total of 23 credit bonds were canceled during the week [3] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads increased across industries, with the largest increase in AAA-rated industries being in pharmaceuticals, which rose by 7.6 basis points, while electronics saw a decrease of 1.5 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated industries, real estate experienced the largest increase in credit spreads by 8.9 basis points, while building materials decreased by 15.3 basis points [4] - In the AA-rated category, electronics had the largest increase in credit spreads by 7.5 basis points, while building materials decreased by 0.5 basis points [4] - In terms of city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Shaanxi, which rose by 5.3 basis points, while Yunnan saw a decrease of 1.2 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated credit spreads, Fujian had the largest increase of 6.4 basis points, while Qinghai decreased by 1.2 basis points [4] - The largest increase in AA-rated credit spreads was in Hubei, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while Sichuan decreased by 2 basis points [4] Group 3: Trading Volume - The top three credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [5] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 573.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 35.93%, accounting for 37.04% of the total trading volume [5] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 368.42 billion, a week-on-week increase of 1.83%, representing 23.81% of the total [5] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 327.90 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 4.54%, making up 21.19% of the total [5]

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 401.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% week-on-week [2] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues with a scale of 175.91 billion yuan, down 2.02%, representing 43.86% of the total issuance [2] - City investment bonds had 178 issues with a scale of 106.535 billion yuan, an increase of 16.25%, making up 26.56% of the total [2] - Financial bonds totaled 35 issues with a scale of 118.65 billion yuan, down 40.42%, accounting for 29.58% of the total [2] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.17 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.39 years, city investment bonds 4.07 years, and financial bonds 2.21 years [2] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.07%, with industrial bonds at 1.93%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [2] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, up 6.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the electronics sector, down 2.8 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated spreads, the steel industry saw the largest increase of 8 basis points, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest decrease of 5 basis points [5] - In the city investment bond sector, the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads was in Jilin, up 1.8 basis points, while Shanxi saw the largest decrease, down 3.4 basis points [5] - The trading volume for credit bonds ranked as follows: commercial bank bonds at 433.848 billion yuan (up 2.87%), company bonds at 356.402 billion yuan (down 1.49%), and medium-term notes at 324.001 billion yuan (down 5.68%) [5]

Employment Quality Report - Fudan University released the employment quality report for the 2025 insurance master's graduates, showing a 96.30% employment rate, with an average of 2.86 job offers per graduate and an average salary of 231,800 yuan [1][4] - The demand for insurance talent is significantly increasing from insurance companies and internet/technology firms, with a diversified employment trend [1][4] Recruitment Trends - Major insurance companies are expanding their recruitment efforts, with China People's Insurance Group offering over 6,500 positions, China Ping An over 2,000 positions, and Taikang Insurance providing over 2,100 positions [4][5] - Core positions such as actuarial and risk control are seeing starting salaries exceeding 250,000 yuan per year, with over 60% of offers in these areas [5] Salary Expectations - 59% of graduates reported their actual salaries met their expectations, while 11% received salaries higher than anticipated [8] Historical Context - Fudan University has a long history in insurance education, having trained nearly 30 chief actuaries and over 500 actuaries since its establishment in 1919 [9] Industry Leadership - Graduates from Fudan University hold significant positions in leading insurance companies, contributing to the industry's high-quality transformation [10][13] Talent Demand - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation, with a significant reduction in the number of agents from 9 million in 2019 to around 2.8 million, indicating a shift towards professionalization [13][14] - There is a growing need for high-quality talent, particularly in sales roles, with an emphasis on higher educational qualifications and cross-disciplinary knowledge [14][15]