Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to continue, creating upward pressure on Asian currencies, particularly in the second half of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Asian Currency Strength - Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a decrease in marginal funds flowing into US assets and a gradual rotation towards non-US assets [1][2][5]. - Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit, have appreciated by approximately 5-10% against the US dollar this year, with this trend likely to continue into the summer [1]. Group 2: Specific Currency Insights - The South Korean Won is favored by Goldman Sachs, with expectations of continued strong performance due to recent political stability and government initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence [6]. - The New Taiwan Dollar is also expected to face further appreciation pressure, driven by significant accumulated US dollar deposits and unhedged overseas assets held by Taiwanese insurance companies [9]. - The Chinese Yuan is projected to receive support from resilient economic growth and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, contributing to a stable exchange rate against the dollar [10]. - In contrast, the Indian Rupee is anticipated to lag behind other Asian currencies due to the Reserve Bank of India's potential actions to mitigate large short forward positions, limiting upward pressure on the currency [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that LGT Royal Bank (Asia) remains bearish on the US dollar, expecting its decline to continue over the next 12 months due to various factors including the Trump administration's policies [1] - Despite the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China, concerns about the US economic cycle and fiscal situation persist, with the latest budget proposal reinforcing doubts about sustainable fiscal control [1] - The euro is seen as the best alternative to the dollar due to increased fiscal support from the EU, while the Australian dollar benefits from interest rate differentials and Chinese fiscal stimulus [1] Group 2 - LGT advises investors to approach the recent dollar sell-off cautiously, as the process of reducing dollar exposure to diversify risk is expected to be gradual [2] - Gold is highlighted as a long-term asset for risk diversification and inflation hedging, with a preference for buying during price corrections, particularly after trade or tariff tensions ease [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange talks between the U.S. and South Korea have ultimately led to the appreciation of Asian currencies [1] Group 1 - The discussions between the U.S. and South Korea are seen as a significant factor influencing currency movements in the Asian region [1] - The South Korean central bank governor, Lee Chang-yong, emphasized the positive impact of these talks on the valuation of Asian currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in Asian currencies, particularly the South Korean won and the Japanese yen, against the US dollar, driven by expectations of US pressure on countries with trade deficits to appreciate their currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - On May 14, the South Korean won appreciated by 2% against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen also saw an increase, reaching a level of 145.70 yen per dollar, indicating a significant shift in the currency market [1]. - The South Korean won traded at approximately 1380 won per dollar, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous day, influenced by reports of US-Korea trade discussions that included currency issues [1][3]. Group 2: US Trade Negotiations - The article highlights that the US is expected to exert pressure on Asian countries with trade deficits to appreciate their currencies, a sentiment that has been echoed in previous trade negotiations [3][4]. - The US government's stance, as articulated by economic advisors, suggests that a weaker dollar could enhance the competitiveness of American manufacturing, although there are conflicting reports regarding the actual intent to devalue the dollar [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Taiwanese dollar appreciated by approximately 10% against the US dollar during early May, attributed to speculation that the US was pressuring Taiwan to strengthen its currency amid trade talks [3]. - Asian investors have increased their exposure to US assets without hedging against currency risks, leading to heightened volatility in the currency markets [3]. Group 4: Future Expectations - There is a prevailing expectation that currency volatility will increase in the short term, with market analysts suggesting that the US dollar is overvalued based on purchasing power parity [4]. - Discussions at the upcoming G7 meeting regarding currency issues are anticipated to further influence market sentiments and currency valuations [4].

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The measures aim to stabilize market expectations and support the development of the real economy, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.67 points on the announcement day [2][3] Public Fund Industry Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced an action plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, shifting focus from "scale" to "returns" [4] - Key changes include linking management fees to fund performance, with lower fees for underperforming funds and potential increases for those exceeding benchmarks [4][5] - As of the end of April, public funds managed 32.5 trillion yuan, with over 50% of pension assets under management [4][5] Trade and Export Performance - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, while imports turned positive with a 0.8% increase [9] - The total value of goods trade for the first four months reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase compared to the previous year [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 21.0%, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8% [9] Automotive Industry Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on new safety standards for automotive door handles, focusing on emergency access and safety in accidents [10] - The proposed standards aim to enhance the safety and visibility of hidden door handles, addressing concerns raised by recent traffic incidents [10][11] Private Sector Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects this year, encouraging private sector participation in major infrastructure projects [13] - The initiative aims to leverage the flexibility and innovation of private enterprises to enhance project execution and create jobs [13] Stock Market and Corporate Actions - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, leading to its delisting from the NYSE and a focus on consolidating its automotive business [18] - This move reflects Geely's strategy to enhance its competitiveness in the smart electric vehicle sector amid increasing market pressures [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian currency rally, led by the New Taiwan Dollar, is likely to continue as investors bet that the worst impact of tariffs has passed, with potential concessions from both negotiating parties in the coming months [1] Currency Performance - The New Taiwan Dollar appreciated by 4% against the US Dollar, reaching 29.79 TWD shortly after the market opened [1] - Other Asian currencies have also seen significant appreciation due to the weak performance of the US Dollar, prompting central banks to intervene to prevent excessive volatility [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Kamakshya Trivedi, indicated that the pressure on the US Dollar, combined with rising recession risks in the US, may lead to lower interest rates [1] - This shift in the economic landscape alters the risk and reward structure for Asian exporters holding US Dollar deposits [1] Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts continued appreciation of Asian currencies, including the Renminbi, New Taiwan Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit [1]