Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is experiencing a price decline along with gold. Its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with high volatility. The Ag2604 contract may fluctuate between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 22,500 yuan/kilogram [9] - For arbitrage, short the gold - silver ratio at high levels; for options, hold off [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO intercepting Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. Iran denies seeking negotiations with the US, and the election of the supreme leader may be postponed to next week. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation. The US tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court vetoed Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the 15% global tariff rate may be adopted this week. The US DFC will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,153.06 yuan/gram, a change of - 2.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 1,144.20 yuan/gram, a 0.77% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21,300.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,854.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,514 lots, and the open interest was 150,089 lots. The night - session closed at 21,546 yuan/kilogram, a 1.41% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 4, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.096%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury was 0.555%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long position decreased by 8,940 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position increased by 847 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 586,170 lots, a 7.58% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 7,345 lots, and the short position decreased by 7,675 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,433,023 lots, a - 24.98% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,981 tons, an increase of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 4, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was 52.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was 923.69 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 52.76, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 64.78, a 13.72% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 93,672 kilograms, a 15.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 546,706 kilograms, an 8.45% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. COMEX silver and spot silver soared and then fell back, while COMEX gold and spot gold also saw their gains narrow. The U.S. durable goods orders in November 2025 showed strong growth. The report predicts that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, and the silver price will maintain an oscillation pattern [1]. - The report provides detailed data on futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of gold and silver, as well as the holdings of precious metal ETFs [2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On Monday, COMEX silver once rose by more than 16%, and spot silver by nearly 14%, but then both fell back. COMEX gold and spot gold also saw their gains narrow. Spot palladium first rose by 7% and then fell by more than 3%. The European Parliament has not decided on whether to resume the approval process of the EU - US trade agreement. The U.S. durable goods orders in November 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month, and core durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month - on - month [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 26, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1113.00 yuan/gram, and the closing price was 1143.32 yuan/gram, a change of 2.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. The night - session closing price was 1148.14 yuan/gram, up 0.42% from the afternoon closing price. The opening price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 25228.00 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 27207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 8.98% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 965900 lots, and the open interest was 322579 lots. The night - session closing price was 29005 yuan/kg, up 6.61% from the afternoon closing price [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 26, 2026, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.215%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.625%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On January 26, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by 6068 lots, and the short position changed by 175 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 579443 lots, a change of - 21.30% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract of Shanghai silver, the long position changed by - 2898 lots, and the short position changed by 7803 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2376284 lots, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,086.53 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,090 tons, a decrease of 14 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 26, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was - 7.34 yuan/gram, and that of silver was - 1006.38 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 42.02, a change of - 4.10% from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 49.76, a change of - 3.71% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 26, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 82850 kg, a change of - 4.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 702202 kg, a change of 4.44% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly increase, but the risk of price correction at high levels still exists. It is expected that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1130 yuan/gram and 1160 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Silver and gold both showed a situation of price soaring and then falling back. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than the gold price. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillation pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 27000 yuan/kg and 30000 yuan/kg [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US employment data and dovish signals from Hassett are expected to lead to a slightly stronger and volatile pattern in the near - term gold prices. The Au2602 contract may oscillate between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram. For silver, although the short - term sharp rise due to spot shortages has cooled, the macro - level logic remains unchanged, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 13000 yuan/kilogram and 13800 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the US employment market, the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022. In November, private data showed a reduction of 9,000 non - farm jobs, and the October data was revised down to a reduction of 15,500. Challenger companies laid off 71,000 people in November, a 24% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative layoffs this year reached 1.17 million. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that real wage growth is now higher than inflation and there may be a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 4, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 958.00 yuan/gram and closed at 953.42 yuan/gram, a - 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 954.50 yuan/gram and closed at 958.46 yuan/gram, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 13,691.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,424.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.16% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,280,887 lots, and the open interest was 452,403 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,382 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,366 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.43% decrease from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 4, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.098%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, a - 0.01% change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On December 4, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 2,090 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 1,347 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 385,011 lots, a 5.18% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 7,725 lots, and the short positions changed by - 1,207 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,302,467 lots, a - 10.43% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,046.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 15,999 tons, an increase of 136 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 4, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,353.77 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 71.02, a 0.83% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 71.97, a - 1.24% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 41,664 kilograms, a 54.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 848,996 kilograms, a - 13.77% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 120 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Senate has passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," taking a key step towards ending the government shutdown. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday [1]. - The ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector has seen a significant decline in employment, with a reduction of 45,000 jobs in October, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [1]. - Due to the increasing market risk sentiment, the safe-haven investment demand for gold may slightly increase. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kilogram and 12,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate has passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," and the House of Representatives plans to vote on it on Wednesday. The ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector has reduced 45,000 jobs in October [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 940.18 yuan/gram and closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, a change of 1.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 944.18 yuan/gram, down 0.50% from the afternoon close [2]. - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,810.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,880.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 675,734 lots, and the open interest was 233,702 lots. The night session closed at 11,921 yuan/kilogram, down 0.35% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 11, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.067%, a change of -4.67 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.516%, a change of -0.72 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 11, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long position changed by -4,804 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position changed by -245 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 457,338 lots, a change of -5.06% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2512 contract, the long position changed by -5,965 lots, and the short position changed by -6,656 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,370,140 lots, a change of -26.87% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,042.06 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,089 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 11, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -7.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,168.12 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 79.87, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the foreign market gold-silver ratio was 81.49, a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 63,048 kilograms, a change of 23.13% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 725,114 kilograms, a change of 1.74% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 240 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kilogram and 12,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts has deepened, and weak economic data may add more weight to the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates in December. Short-term risk aversion catalysts are weakening. Gold and silver prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold may fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram, and the Ag2512 contract for silver may fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, saying the Fed's policy is too tight and the longer it remains restrictive, the greater the risk of an economic downturn. He reiterated that the neutral policy rate is far below the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50-basis-point rate cuts. Governor Cook said each Fed meeting is a real-time decision on monetary policy, the current policy is moderately restrictive, inflation remains high and faces upward risks, and a rate cut in December is possible but depends on new information. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. New orders declined for the second consecutive month, the production index was weak, and the price payment index hit a new low since the beginning of this year [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 924.60 yuan/gram and closed at 922.58 yuan/gram, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 919.52 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 752,034 lots, and the open interest was 261,467 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,455 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,350 yuan/kilogram, a 0.92% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 3, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, up 2.71 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.505%, down 0.38 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,855 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,997 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 341,261 lots, a 13.8% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,117 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,530 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,267,986 lots, a 16.7% decrease from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,039.20 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,190 tons [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 3, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 4.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -905.77 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 80.54, a 0.59% decrease from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 81.97, a 0.93% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,556 kilograms, a 5.20% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 525,416 kilograms, a 7.75% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112,200 kilograms [7]