贵金属日报 | 2025-12-05 美国就业数据趋弱 哈塞特再次放鸽 市场分析 就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。另据美国私 人数据提供商Revelio Labs，美国11月非农就业减少9000个，同时10月数据下修至减少1.55万个。另外，美国挑战 者企业11月裁员7.1万人，同比增24%，今年累计裁员人数攀升至117万。降息节奏方面，美国 白宫国家经济委员 会主任哈塞特表示，实际工资增长现在高于通胀；可能会在下一次美联储会议上看到降息，将降息25个基点左右。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-04，沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于953.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.34%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于954.50元/克，收于958.46元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-12-04，沪银主力合约开于13691.00元/千克，收于13424.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.16%。当日成交 量为2280887手，持仓量为452403手。昨日夜盘沪银主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Senate has passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," taking a key step towards ending the government shutdown. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday [1]. - The ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector has seen a significant decline in employment, with a reduction of 45,000 jobs in October, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [1]. - Due to the increasing market risk sentiment, the safe-haven investment demand for gold may slightly increase. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kilogram and 12,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate has passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," and the House of Representatives plans to vote on it on Wednesday. The ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector has reduced 45,000 jobs in October [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 940.18 yuan/gram and closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, a change of 1.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 944.18 yuan/gram, down 0.50% from the afternoon close [2]. - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,810.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,880.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 675,734 lots, and the open interest was 233,702 lots. The night session closed at 11,921 yuan/kilogram, down 0.35% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 11, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.067%, a change of -4.67 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.516%, a change of -0.72 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 11, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long position changed by -4,804 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position changed by -245 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 457,338 lots, a change of -5.06% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2512 contract, the long position changed by -5,965 lots, and the short position changed by -6,656 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,370,140 lots, a change of -26.87% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,042.06 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,089 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 11, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -7.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,168.12 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 79.87, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the foreign market gold-silver ratio was 81.49, a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 63,048 kilograms, a change of 23.13% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 725,114 kilograms, a change of 1.74% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 240 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kilogram and 12,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts has deepened, and weak economic data may add more weight to the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates in December. Short-term risk aversion catalysts are weakening. Gold and silver prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold may fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram, and the Ag2512 contract for silver may fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, saying the Fed's policy is too tight and the longer it remains restrictive, the greater the risk of an economic downturn. He reiterated that the neutral policy rate is far below the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50-basis-point rate cuts. Governor Cook said each Fed meeting is a real-time decision on monetary policy, the current policy is moderately restrictive, inflation remains high and faces upward risks, and a rate cut in December is possible but depends on new information. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. New orders declined for the second consecutive month, the production index was weak, and the price payment index hit a new low since the beginning of this year [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 924.60 yuan/gram and closed at 922.58 yuan/gram, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 919.52 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 752,034 lots, and the open interest was 261,467 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,455 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,350 yuan/kilogram, a 0.92% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 3, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, up 2.71 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.505%, down 0.38 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,855 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,997 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 341,261 lots, a 13.8% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,117 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,530 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,267,986 lots, a 16.7% decrease from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,039.20 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,190 tons [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 3, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 4.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -905.77 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 80.54, a 0.59% decrease from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 81.97, a 0.93% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,556 kilograms, a 5.20% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 525,416 kilograms, a 7.75% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112,200 kilograms [7]