Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by various employment data, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. - The U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 5.6 basis points to 4.1607% and the 2-year yield falling by 2.88 basis points to 3.5878% [1]. - Key employment data released included a surge in Challenger job cuts to 86,000 in August from 62,100 in July, an ADP private sector job increase of only 54,000, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000 [1][2]. Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that strong job growth earlier in the year has been undermined by uncertainties, including labor shortages and consumer confidence issues, leading to cautious hiring decisions by companies [2]. - Traders are heavily betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 99.4%, and over a 50% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [2]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide final guidance for the market, although some analysts caution that ADP data may not accurately predict non-farm performance, as seen in previous discrepancies [3].

疲软非农数据提振降息预期 美债收益率回落 金十数据8月1日讯，周五逊于预期的美国7月非农就业报告发布后，华尔街交易员押注美联储9月降息概 率显著上升。芝加哥商品交易所数据显示，期货市场定价反映的9月降息概率已从周四的38%升至 55%，意味着降息已成大概率事件。短期美国国债收益率应声大跌，反映市场对货币政策转向的重新定 价。尽管早前因美国总统特朗普最新关税措施而走高的长期国债收益率，也随之下行。 ...