昨日黄金又是过山车的走势，高位震荡回踩向下，同时保持高位抗跌走势。晚间最低回落4163，不过尾盘又强势收回失地。黄金如果继续保持这样的走势， 那么不排除后续日K会震荡上升，盘面重新回到多头主导。 黄金虽短期面临获利回吐压力，但美联储降息预期、央行强劲购金、美债收益率回落、美元走弱以及地缘政治不确定性等多重因素合力推动向上突破。临近 年末，展望未来，5000美元目标可能并非遥不可及。大家多多关注美联储和关键数据的表现。 早盘反弹继续关注4245和4265附近阻力，接近不破轻仓空。回测先关注4183附近，进一步下破关注4163附近支撑。目前来看多空都有机会，反复性强，短线 处于高位反复迂回洗盘，小周期可能伴随反复的冲高回落。积存金关注945-940。日内操作有两个难点：一是支撑快速刺破容易被扫损，二是回踩后持续抗 跌拉升难以形成趋势性回落。保持好自己的节奏，最近不去追单，注意下操作手法 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 反弹4245轻仓试空，突破关注4265附近压制 回落4183不破多，破位关注4163支撑 积存金关注945-940 更多实时关注李槿后续 投资有风险，入行需谨慎 昨日超神回落多拿下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by various employment data, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. - The U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 5.6 basis points to 4.1607% and the 2-year yield falling by 2.88 basis points to 3.5878% [1]. - Key employment data released included a surge in Challenger job cuts to 86,000 in August from 62,100 in July, an ADP private sector job increase of only 54,000, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000 [1][2]. Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that strong job growth earlier in the year has been undermined by uncertainties, including labor shortages and consumer confidence issues, leading to cautious hiring decisions by companies [2]. - Traders are heavily betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 99.4%, and over a 50% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [2]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide final guidance for the market, although some analysts caution that ADP data may not accurately predict non-farm performance, as seen in previous discrepancies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for July has significantly increased the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability rising from 38% to 55% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July fell short of expectations, prompting traders to adjust their forecasts for monetary policy [1] - The futures market now reflects a 55% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, short-term U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant decline, signaling a re-evaluation of the monetary policy outlook [1] - Long-term Treasury yields, which had previously risen due to President Trump's latest tariff measures, also fell in response to the employment report [1]