来源：滚动播报 美国国债期货跃升，美元走软。此前ADP Research发布的数据释放美国劳动力市场放缓的信号。美国国 债现货市场因退伍军人节假期休市。ADP数据发布后，10年期美国国债期货上涨。该变幅对应10年期国 债收益率下跌约4个基点。该期限国债收益率周一收于4.12%。货币市场也上调了对美联储降息的押 注，与美联储会期挂钩的互换合约显示，市场预期下个月降息的可能性超过60%。对降息的预期升温导 致彭博美元指数大幅下跌，触及本月最低点，而欧元和日元兑美元均升至盘中高点。周二公布的数 据"与劳动力市场已趋稳定的观点相悖"，T. Rowe Price首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci对Bloomberg Surveillance表示，"我们正在密切予以关注，但同时也意识到10月数据有很多干扰因素，而且会受到政 府停摆的影响。" ...

由于美国政府停摆导致官方经济数据发布中断，市场在10月份出现对风险与预期的重新定价，美元在当月录得了今年第二大的月 度涨幅。然而，随着延迟数据逐步恢复，外汇与宏观分析人士认为，美元目前的强势可能只是短期现象，未来或面临回调压力， 核心原因聚焦在美国劳动力市场的结构性放缓。 从更早的数据来看，政府停摆前公布的非农报告本身已显示劳动力市场降温迹象。8月份就业增速明显放缓，失业率升至近三年来 的高位，随后公布的企业裁员公告和消费者支出信号也与此相吻合。例如，美国企业在10月份宣布的裁员规模达到二十多年来同 月最高水平，而部分连锁餐饮企业出现业绩下调，反映出消费意愿开始受到影响，进而形成对整体需求的拖累。 此前，美国政府停摆使得投资者无法及时获取关键经济指标，尤其是就业数据。就业作为经济基本面的重要组成部分，不仅影响 消费与投资，也对货币政策路径具有深刻影响。在数据缺位的情况下，市场参与者只能依赖预期和局部民间指标，从而忽视了招 聘增速放缓与就业质量下降这一趋势。 多家机构预计，一旦完整就业数据恢复发布，美元可能重新面临抛售压力，尤其在与欧元的对比中显得更为明显。一些策略师预 计，若劳动力市场疲软趋势确认，欧元兑美元 ...

美联储"三把手"：美国劳动力市场或进一步放缓 支持年内继续降息 美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在周四接受专访时表示，鉴于美国劳动力市场可能进一步放 缓，他支持今年内继续降息。不过，他也强调，当前的就业降温并不意味着经济即将陷入衰退。威廉姆 斯同时在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）兼任副主席，与美联储理事一样拥有永久的投票权。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 10月10日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1048，上调54.00点。 美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为94.1% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为5.9%，降息25个基点的概率为94.1%。美联储 12月维持利率不变概率为0.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为17.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 82.0%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by various employment data, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. - The U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 5.6 basis points to 4.1607% and the 2-year yield falling by 2.88 basis points to 3.5878% [1]. - Key employment data released included a surge in Challenger job cuts to 86,000 in August from 62,100 in July, an ADP private sector job increase of only 54,000, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000 [1][2]. Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that strong job growth earlier in the year has been undermined by uncertainties, including labor shortages and consumer confidence issues, leading to cautious hiring decisions by companies [2]. - Traders are heavily betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 99.4%, and over a 50% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [2]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide final guidance for the market, although some analysts caution that ADP data may not accurately predict non-farm performance, as seen in previous discrepancies [3].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a short-term surge, reaching a new high of $3409 before quickly retreating to $3388, currently stabilizing around $3402 [1] - The recent increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a slowdown in the labor market, with claims rising by 7,000 to 226,000, the highest level in a month, which is slightly above market expectations [2] - The number of continuing jobless claims has risen to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting that finding new employment is becoming more challenging for unemployed individuals [2] Group 2 - The short-term trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying, with key support at $3352 and resistance levels at $3385 and $3400 [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have surged to over 91%, up significantly from 37.7% a week prior, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with employers continuing to create jobs but reducing hiring, indicating that more companies are pausing expansion plans due to economic uncertainty [1] - Despite a strong labor market so far this year, the slowdown in job growth suggests deepening cracks in the employment market [1] - Economists warn that chaotic tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and federal government layoffs may further suppress economic growth [1] Labor Market Analysis - Employers are still generating employment opportunities, but the pace of hiring has decreased [1] - The labor market has remained robust throughout the year, but the recent trends indicate a potential weakening [1] Economic Implications - The reduction in hiring could be a response to broader economic uncertainties faced by businesses [1] - Potential factors contributing to economic growth suppression include tariff policies, immigration policies, and government employment cuts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, as indicated by the rising four-week average of initial jobless claims [1] - The increase in jobless claims is considered to be somewhat genuine, as the unadjusted 52-week average has been on an upward trend since last fall [1] - Although the overall layoff rate in the U.S. remains low, there are indications that it has recently started to rise [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that hiring activity will weaken due to tariffs [1]