Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially recovering to around $3672 per ounce before dropping over $40 to a low of $3627.82, closing at $3644.22, a slight decline of 0.42% [1] - Silver showed relative strength, closing at $41.797 per ounce, up 0.35% [1] - In the Asian market, gold opened at $3643.64, fluctuated down to $3636.13, and later stabilized around $3647 [1] Influencing Factors - The primary factors affecting gold prices were the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, with the dollar index reaching a high of 97.60 and closing at 97.36, up 0.34% [2] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.566%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.7 basis points to 4.108%, raising the holding costs of gold and diminishing its investment appeal [2] Commodity and Stock Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude closing at $62.93 per barrel, down 0.52%, and Brent crude at $66.98, down 1.34% [3] - US stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 123.92 points (0.27%), S&P 500 up 31.60 points (0.48%), and Nasdaq up 209.40 points (0.94%) [3] - European stock indices also rose, with Germany's DAX30 up 1.47%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.19%, and France's CAC40 up 0.87% [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D closed down 0.43% at 823.55 CNY per gram, while silver T+D rose 0.21% to 9851.0 CNY per kilogram [4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1128, indicating a depreciation of the yuan [4] Economic Data and Central Bank Policies - Recent US economic data showed mixed results, with initial jobless claims at 231,000, below expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index significantly exceeded forecasts at 23.2 [4] - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.00% and reduced its quantitative tightening pace from £100 billion to £70 billion, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - The Federal Reserve's new board member hinted at potential rate cuts in upcoming meetings, raising market speculation about the Fed's policy direction [5] Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical developments include the Trump administration's legal actions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence and the signing of a US-UK technology cooperation agreement [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment [6] Gold Industry Insights - Switzerland's gold exports to the US plummeted by 99% in August due to a temporary tariff on gold bars, highlighting market panic [7] - Recent thefts involving gold in Hong Kong and Paris underscore the increasing value and security concerns surrounding gold [7] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices due to Fed rate cut expectations being priced in, long-term demand for gold remains strong due to inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and diversification needs [8] - The market anticipates a potential shift in Fed policy post-2026, which could favor gold investments [8] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show gold prices have retreated from recent highs, with the current trading range expected to be between $3635 and $3655 [10][11] - The market is advised to monitor key resistance and support levels closely as volatility persists [11]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with predictions of two cuts by year-end, and some institutions forecasting a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.39% on August 1, closing at 98.68, marking the largest single-day drop since April. This decline reduced the cost of holding gold. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.710% (the lowest in five weeks) and the 10-year yield dropping to 4.223% (the largest single-day drop since early April), creating a favorable low-interest environment for gold [3] - Tariff policies have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump imposed high tariffs (25%-50%) on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to a global stock market crash and increased market risk aversion. This situation has driven demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The tariffs raised import costs, causing the U.S. manufacturing PMI to drop to 48.0 (indicating contraction for the fifth consecutive month) and factory employment to hit a five-year low, further supporting gold prices amid rising global economic uncertainty [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding its policy direction. Chairman Powell previously stated that no decision had been made regarding a September rate cut, but the weak employment data has weakened the hawkish stance. There are internal divisions among officials, with some concerned about the labor market slowdown while others advocate for maintaining interest rates. The upcoming employment data in August (to be released on September 5) will be a critical reference point, and continued weakness may further solidify rate cut expectations [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant rise last Friday, breaking through multiple moving average resistances, indicating strong momentum. The 5-day moving average has turned upward, suggesting short-term upward momentum, while the 10-day moving average remains slightly downward, indicating some divergence in short- to medium-term trends. The 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are flat, suggesting that short-term moving averages may not provide clear guidance for precise short-term direction. Since mid-May, gold has been in a high-level wide-ranging oscillation pattern, and the overall approach should remain cautious regarding premature judgments of a one-sided trend [7] - On the four-hour chart, gold is in the C-wave of a larger correction that began from 3500. The C-wave is further divided, with the C-1 wave dropping to 3247 and the C-2 wave rising to 3438/3439. Currently, gold is experiencing a decline in the C-3 wave after encountering resistance at 3438/3439. The analysis suggests that the recent low of 3268 may mark the end of the C-3-1 wave decline, with a potential upward movement in the C-3-2 wave expected. The focus for the beginning of this week should be on the continuation of the C-3-2 wave upward movement, while monitoring for potential resistance at previous highs [9] - Resistance levels to watch are 3373/3374 and 3402/3403, which correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent decline. Support levels to monitor are in the range of 3340-3335, with additional support at 3325 and 3315 if the market experiences significant pullbacks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by Trump's tariff policies, Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the strength of the US dollar and bond yields [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 771.02 CNY per gram, up by 0.19% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3325.9 USD per ounce, up by 0.15% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Trump's tariff policy includes a 25%-40% tariff on 14 countries starting August 1, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased market volatility and affect gold demand [3]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming release of the June monetary policy meeting minutes is crucial; a dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while a hawkish tone may lead to a price correction [3]. - A strong dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, and rising US bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, both of which exert downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3400 USD, with significant uncertainty [4]. - Geopolitical tensions or dovish Fed minutes could push gold above 3355 USD, while easing tariff uncertainties and hawkish minutes may lead to a drop towards 3300 USD or lower [4]. - Long-term factors, including global monetary system restructuring, are expected to support a gradual upward trend in gold prices, although short-term volatility remains a concern [4].