Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-11-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-11-14 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 10 月金融数据发布，存款搬家持续 观点分享： 人民银行发布 10 月金融数据：新增社融 0.8 万亿元，同比少增 0.6 万亿元，余额同比增 速 8.5%，增速较上月下降 0.2 个百分点；新增贷款 0.2 万亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元，余额 同比增速 6.5%，增速较上月下降 0.1 个百分点。M1/M2 增速+6.2%/+8.2%，分别环比下 降 1.0 和 0.2 个百分点。10 月信贷继续同比少增，主要由于当前处于投放淡季，以及政策性 金融工具拉动效应尚未显现的窗口期。另外值得关注的是，10 月 M1 增速环比下降 1.0 个百 分点至 6.2%，显示存款活化趋势在高基数下略有放缓。但非银存款增速较 9 月上升 2.1 个百 分点至 11.8%，同比多增 7700 亿元，显示在资本市场活跃背景下，存款搬家进程仍在延 续。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PX | ★★★★ | PX：中期趋势偏强 ...