美元互换
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锡:高位回落
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 13:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].
所长早读:10月金融数据发布,存款搬家持续-20251114
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 01:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - 10 - month financial data shows continued deposit transfer, with credit growth slowing due to the off - season and delayed policy effects. The deposit activation trend has slightly slowed, but the deposit transfer process continues in the context of a vibrant capital market [7][8]. - PX has a strong medium - term trend and is suitable for positive spreads. Factors such as overseas blending demand, supply shortages, and future supply - demand gaps support this view [9][10]. - Pure benzene is mainly in short - term oscillations, and it is advisable to buy on dips for PX - BZ [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, it reached a new high [14][17]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [14]. - **Copper**: Macro - disturbances limit price increases [14][21]. - **Zinc**: Trades in a range [14][24]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [14][27]. - **Tin**: Declined from high levels [14][29]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slight upward bias; Alumina oscillates at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [14][35]. - **Nickel**: High inventories and Indonesian risks lead to low - level oscillations; Stainless steel lacks upward drivers and has limited downside [14][38]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates at high levels with potential upward pressure [14][43]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Medium - term trend is strong, positive spreads [9][10][68]. - **PTA**: Cost - supported, with high - level oscillations and limited positive spread space [68][71]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure eases marginally, but the rebound height is limited [68][72]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates [14][73]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term oscillations are supported [14][77]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillates at low levels [14][80]. - **LLDPE**: Some supply disturbances, attention to import pressure [14][93]. - **PP**: Trend is weak [14][97]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillates [14][102]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates [14][107]. - **Glass**: Spot prices are stable [14][112]. - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillations [14][116]. - **Urea**: Runs within the valuation range [14][120]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations [14][123]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [14][126]. - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; Propylene has short - term support due to narrowing supply - demand [14][129]. - **PVC**: Still under pressure [14][137]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, weaker than low - sulfur in the short term; Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and weakens [14][142]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks drivers and oscillates [14][160][172]. - **Soybean Oil**: With stable US soybeans, the spread between soybean and palm oil continues to widen [14][172]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report [14][179]. - **Soybean**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the report [14][179]. - **Corn**: Oscillates [14][182]. - **Cotton**: Lacks upward drivers and the price declines slightly [14][186]. - **Eggs**: Maintains oscillations [14][192]. - **Hogs**: The spread between fat and standard pigs weakens, and drivers emerge [14][194]. - **Peanuts**: Attention to the spot market [14][198]. Others - **Logs**: Oscillates repeatedly [14][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillates [14][144]. - **Short Fibers**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at low levels [14][160].