锡：关注宏观地缘影响 2026 年 3 月 2 日 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 【趋势强度】 锡趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 453,240 | 8.53% | 455,610 | 5.65% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 58,050 | 6.74% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the tin industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 429,570, with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the closing price of the night session was 447,140, with a night - session increase of 4.09%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 56,605, with a daily increase of 7.49%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin increased by 102,997 to 378,618, and the position increased by 33,940 to 56,254. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 361 to 890, and the position increased by 202 to 23,931 [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,582, a decrease of 34. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,195, and the cancellation warehouse - receipt ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price - Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 420,300, an increase of 17,050. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 423,300, an increase of 20,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 245, a decrease of 56. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 233,310, an increase of 19,730. The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was 14,290, an increase of 29,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 406,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 410,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 63A solder bar was 277,750, an increase of 11,000. The price of 60A solder bar was 265,250, an increase of 10,000 [2] Macro and Industry News - Negotiations among delegations from Ukraine, the US, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, UAE have ended - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, visited China again, with his first stop being NVIDIA's new office in Shanghai - OpenAI's API business increased its annual recurring revenue by $1 billion last month - The central bank governor stated to promote the internationalization of the RMB in an orderly manner [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "strongly bullish", with a trend strength of 2, indicating the most bullish outlook [1][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend, as evidenced by significant price increases in both futures and spot markets [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54,000 with a daily increase of 9.88% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 404,698, a decrease of 65,525 from the previous day, and the open interest was 42,405, a decrease of 448. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,536, a decrease of 14, and the open interest was 23,559, an increase of 271 [2] - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrant Ratio**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,107, an increase of 862, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, unchanged. The cancelled warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 25,300 to 405,500, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 30,000 to 410,000. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 22 to - 65 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 25,300 to 393,500, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 25,300 to 397,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US will suspend all visas for 75 countries, covering nearly one - third of the world - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, driven by a rebound in car sales and holiday consumption - The Japanese yen fell to an 18 - month low, and the Japanese Finance Minister warned of "not excluding any means" to rescue the market - China's Foreign Ministry stated that US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from major Middle - East bases [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for tin is "Oscillating Strongly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 352,540 with a daily increase of 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a night - session increase of 3.15%; the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 45,700 with a daily increase of 4.64% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 253,086, a decrease of 147,359 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,737, an increase of 1,939; the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 588, a decrease of 477, and the open interest was 23,214, an increase of 335 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,429, a decrease of 359; the futures inventory of LME Tin was 5,415, an increase of 10, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 349,750, a decrease of 5,300 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 350,900, a decrease of 2,000; the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 30, an increase of 9; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 157,480, an increase of 3,620; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,260, an increase of 7,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 337,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 341,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 63A solder bar was 233,250, a decrease of 3,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trump said there will be no more oil or funds flowing into Cuba - British officials have not ruled out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland - The National Commercial Work Conference stated to deeply implement the special action to boost consumption - Trump was reported to have received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Date and Title - Date: January 9, 2026; Title: "Tin: Loosening at High Levels" [1] 2. Analysts and Contact Information - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com); Contact: Tang Wenhao (Futures Qualification No.: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com) [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking Futures - **Prices**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 349,640 yuan with a -2.62% daily increase and 347,430 yuan at night with a -1.53% increase; LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 43,675 with a -2.18% daily increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Tin main contract had 400,445 trades (-59,464 compared to the previous day) and 38,798 open interests (-5,171); LME Tin 3M electronic disk had 1,065 trades (43 more) and 660 open interests (371 more) [2] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,788 (8 more); LME Tin inventory was 5,405 (unchanged), and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57% (-0.38%) [2] Spot and Price Difference - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 355,050 yuan (-900 compared to the previous day); Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin average price was 352,900 yuan (-4,400) [2] - **Price Differences**: LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -52 (13 more); the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 153,860 (unchanged); the spread between spot and the futures main contract was -6,150 (-14,630) [2] Industrial Chain Key Price Data - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 343,050 yuan (-900); 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 347,050 yuan (-900); 63A solder bar price was 236,750 yuan (-500); 60A solder bar price was 226,750 yuan (-500) [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - Trump hopes to visit Venezuela; the Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US rose to 3.42% (previous value: 3.2%); the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the "Volunteer Alliance" and Ukraine are the "war axis"; the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs set a record high in annual capital inflows in 2025 [2][4] 5. Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] representing different views from most bearish (-2) to most bullish (2) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the tin market, showing that long - position funds faced obstacles, leading to a price increase followed by a decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050 with a daily increase of 2.93%, and the night - session closing price was 355,170 with a - 0.28% change compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650 with a 0.34% increase [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924 from the previous day, and the position was 43,969, an increase of 2,774. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the position was 13,988, an increase of 53 [1]. - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780, a decrease of 306, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,405, a decrease of 15. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [1]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 355,950, an increase of 14,900 from the previous day; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 357,300, an increase of 15,200 [1]. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 65, a decrease of 35; the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 162,370, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 8,480, an increase of 750 [1]. - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 343,950, an increase of 14,900; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 347,950, an increase of 14,900 [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 237,250, an increase of 9,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 227,250, an increase of 9,000 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" with a 40% - 50% increase expected in Q1 [2]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to accelerate the industrialization and commercialization of new terminals such as AR/VR wearable devices and brain - computer interfaces [2]. - The People's Bank of China carried out 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8 [2]. - The US will "distribute on commission" Venezuelan oil and requires Venezuela to cut economic ties with China and Russia [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 representing the most bearish and 2 representing the most bullish [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - During the holiday, the tin market showed stable fluctuations. The trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 326,330, down 2.47% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 441,257 (down 12,067 from the day before) and an open interest of 43,769 (down 6,392). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195, up 5.46%, with a trading volume of 180 (down 9) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53) [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,772, down 133 from the previous day, and LME Tin inventory was 5,330, up 185. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, down 0.38% [1] - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 (down 800), the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 321,600 (down 22,300). The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 95 (down 35), the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract remained unchanged at 130,660, and the spot - to - futures main contract spread was - 12,990 (down 18,340) [1] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 327,800 (down 800), the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 331,800 (down 800), and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars remained unchanged at 227,250 and 217,750 respectively [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump claimed to have captured Maduro and his wife. China called on the US to ensure their safety and stop regime - change efforts. Russia also urged the US to release Maduro [2] - OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter [2] - Yushu Technology clarified that it has not applied for a "green channel" and its listing work is progressing normally [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of tin, including price, trading volume, inventory, and key industry prices, and also provides some macro and industry news [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,860, with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 294,380, with a night - session increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 69,596, an increase of 13,478 from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,347, a decrease of 3,235 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,884, a decrease of 22 from the previous day [1]. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,425, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 3,085, unchanged from the previous day, and the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 293,600, an increase of 2,200 from the previous day [1]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 96, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 97,430, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 2,860, an increase of 3,490 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 270,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 274,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and also talked about the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine crisis [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, both support a December interest - rate cut due to concerns about the labor market [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to launch the artificial intelligence "Genesis Project" [2]. - Ukraine said that the US and Ukraine finalized a new peace draft, with the number of points reduced from 28 to 19, and sensitive parts are to be decided by the US and Russian presidents [2]. - Moore Threads, the "first domestic GPU stock", started its IPO subscription, with an online winning rate of 0.02423369% and an offline subscription multiple of nearly 1,600 times [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of tin is trending upwards, with the Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin 3M electronic disk showing increases in prices and trading volume. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a daily increase of 1.48%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 37,405 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai tin main contract increased significantly compared to the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 136 tons to 5,446 tons, while the inventory of LME tin increased by 40 tons to 3,055 tons. The cancellation warehouse receipt ratio of LME tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1] - **Spot and Price Difference**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 yuan to 282,800 yuan, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 4,300 yuan to 292,400 yuan. The spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2,680 yuan to 4,220 yuan [1] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 yuan, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic and Policy News**: After the end of the shutdown, the US October inflation and employment reports may not be released. The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The US Treasury Secretary will adjust the national debt issuance structure according to investor demand. The US Supreme Court will hold a court debate on the Fed Governor Cook case on January 21 [2] - **Global Commodity Market**: OPEC lowered the global oil demand forecast, and the oil price dropped by 4% as the Q3 market shifted from "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" [2] - **Chinese Market Policy**: China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated to prevent large market fluctuations [2] - **Corporate News**: Due to strong demand for AI servers, Hon Hai's Q3 net profit increased by 17% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and its revenue increased by 11%. Alphabet's Waymo will supply highway self - driving taxis [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral to slightly positive view on the tin market [4]