2026 年 1 月 9 日 锡：高位松动 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 349,640 | -2.62% | 347,430 | -1.53% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 43,675 | -2.18% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 400,445 | -59,464 | 38,798 | -5,171 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 1,065 | 4 3 | 660 | 371 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | 6,788 | 8 | - | - | | | 伦 锡 | 5,405 | 0 | 6.57% | -0.38% | | | | | 昨 日 | 前 日 | 较前日变动 | | | SMM 1#锡锭价格 | | 355,050 | ...

商 品 研 究 锡：多头资金受阻，冲高回落 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 359,050 | 2.93% | 355,170 | -0.28% 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 44,650 | 0.34% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 459,909 | 134,924 | 43,969 | 2,774 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变 ...

12月31日（周三），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜周三小幅下跌，但预计2025年，期铜料录得自2009年以 来最大年线涨幅，且为基本金属总表现最好者，因供应忧虑和AI繁荣和能源唤醒等引发的需求增长预 期。 作为"万物电气化"的主要受益者之一，由于美国关税的不确定性和对可能限制供应的矿山生产中断的担 忧，铜价今年迄今已飙升逾42%。 三个月期铜最新跌0.49%，报每吨12,497美元。 沪铜主力合约周三收高0.84%，报每吨98,240元，今年累计上涨33.27%。 今年铜价数度突破关键水准，触及纪录新高，主要是受矿山生产中断，比如自由港旗下印尼旗舰 Grasberg铜金矿一度暂停生产，这推动铜价走升。 周三LME三个月期铝上涨0.44%，料录得逾17%的年线涨幅。沪铝主力合约周三收盘上涨2.25%，今年 累计上涨14.65%。 预计镍价将自2023年以来首度录得年线涨幅，因印尼政府计划削减2026年矿业出口配额，以支撑价格。 三个月期镍下跌1.35%，最新报每吨16,600美元，今年料录得逾8%的年线涨幅。沪镍主力合约周三收高 2.44%，年线涨幅为4.93%。 其他基本金属方面，三个月期锌下跌0.24%，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting fluctuations in major indices and sector performances, with a focus on the impact of specific themes such as digital currency and commercial aerospace on stock movements [3][4][5]. Market Performance - As of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1% to 3961.21, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.23% to 13568.09, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.06% to 3220.56 [3][4]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 101.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks declining [5]. Sector Highlights - The film and television sector saw a rebound, with notable stocks like Baidu and Huayi Brothers experiencing significant gains, driven by a total box office of 5.245 billion yuan for the 2025 New Year’s season [7]. - The commercial aerospace sector showed resilience, with stocks like China Satellite and China Satcom rising over 5%, continuing to set historical highs [9]. - Digital currency and cross-border payment sectors were active, with stocks like Cuiwei Co. and Feitian Chengxin hitting the daily limit, reflecting positive sentiment around the upcoming implementation of the new digital RMB design [10]. Commodity Market - Nickel futures on the Shanghai exchange rose by 4% to 132,580 yuan per ton, while London nickel also increased by 4% to 16,384.20 USD per ton [6]. - Lithium carbonate futures saw a significant drop of 8% to 115,780 yuan per ton, indicating volatility in the energy metals market [17]. Currency and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan with a rate of 1.40%, with 59.3 billion yuan maturing today [13]. - The RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.0348, depreciating by 17 basis points from the previous trading day [15].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is expected to experience a phase of marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure in 2026, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions providing support, leading to a high-level fluctuation of the Shanghai tin futures contract. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The price of Shanghai tin futures reached a three-and-a-half-year high of 323,700 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and expectations of macroeconomic easing [1] - The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has progressed, with the current mine recovery rate reaching two-thirds, leading to an expected increase in tin imports from Myanmar to an average of 1,000 to 1,500 metal tons per month in Q1 2026 [1] - Indonesia's Timah company aims to significantly increase production in 2026, but ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining may lead to supply reductions for some small and medium-sized producers [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - The domestic refined tin smelting sector is expected to maintain stable operations in Q1 2026, with raw material constraints easing compared to 2025, leading to a slight year-on-year increase in tin ingot supply [2] - Traditional consumption sectors are showing significant seasonal weakness, with the consumer electronics market not showing substantial recovery, and global smartphone shipments predicted to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026 [2] - The home appliance industry faces demand pressure following the withdrawal of national subsidies, with domestic sales growth slowing and export benefits from emerging markets insufficient to offset domestic weakness [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to continue the pattern of "marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure" in Q1 2026, with increased supply from Myanmar and Indonesia suppressing price upward potential [3] - The core trading range for the Shanghai tin futures contract is anticipated to be between 280,000 and 330,000 yuan/ton in early 2026, influenced by macroeconomic liquidity support from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Key factors to monitor include the actual progress of production resumption in Myanmar, the approval schedule for Indonesia's RKAB quotas, and the stability of the DRC [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - As of December 10, London copper prices remained stable, slightly below record highs, with a 0.68% increase to $11,565 per ton [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 0.23% decrease in the main copper contract, closing at 91,850 yuan per ton [1]. - Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 4,155 contracts to 62,397 contracts as of the week ending November 4 [1]. Group 3 - Overseas aluminum suppliers have raised their quotes for shipments to Japan in Q1 2024, with premiums of $190-203 per ton over LME spot prices, marking an increase of 121%-136% compared to Q4 2023 [2]. - In LME base metals, three-month aluminum rose by 0.37% to $2,867 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin also saw price increases [2]. - In Shanghai, the main aluminum contract fell by 0.25% to 21,935 yuan per ton, while other metals like zinc and nickel also experienced declines [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of tin, including price, trading volume, inventory, and key industry prices, and also provides some macro and industry news [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,860, with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 294,380, with a night - session increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 69,596, an increase of 13,478 from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,347, a decrease of 3,235 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,884, a decrease of 22 from the previous day [1]. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,425, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 3,085, unchanged from the previous day, and the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 293,600, an increase of 2,200 from the previous day [1]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 96, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 97,430, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 2,860, an increase of 3,490 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 270,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 274,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and also talked about the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine crisis [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, both support a December interest - rate cut due to concerns about the labor market [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to launch the artificial intelligence "Genesis Project" [2]. - Ukraine said that the US and Ukraine finalized a new peace draft, with the number of points reduced from 28 to 19, and sensitive parts are to be decided by the US and Russian presidents [2]. - Moore Threads, the "first domestic GPU stock", started its IPO subscription, with an online winning rate of 0.02423369% and an offline subscription multiple of nearly 1,600 times [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodities showed mixed performance, with silver leading gains by over 2%, while other commodities like tin, SC crude oil, synthetic rubber, low-sulfur fuel oil, rapeseed oil, iron ore, and lead rose by more than 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1487.7 points, up 7.73 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2053.27 points, up 11.28 points or 0.55% [1] Group 2: Silver and Tin Market Dynamics - Silver prices continued to rise, driven by weak U.S. employment data which boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, positively impacting precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Tin prices increased by 1.75% due to tight supply expectations, influenced by reduced tin ingot exports from Indonesia and slow recovery in production from Wa State [2] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Insights - Crude oil prices were supported by geopolitical tensions affecting supply expectations, with SC crude oil main contract rising by 1.52% [3] - However, market analysts caution that while geopolitical factors provide short-term support, the overall market remains under pressure due to macroeconomic conditions and potential risks from U.S. government shutdowns [3] Group 4: Egg and Red Date Market Trends - Egg futures experienced a significant drop of over 3%, attributed to an oversupply issue and pressure from the approaching delivery of near-month contracts [5] - Red date futures have been declining due to increased selling pressure from previously locked-in stocks, with expectations of further price declines as supply exceeds demand [7]