2025 年 11月 25 日 锡:供应再出扰动 刘雨营 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 292. 860 | 0. 73% | 294. 380 | 0.05% | | 期货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 37.425 | 1.23% | | l | | 及现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 69.596 | 13.478 | 18. 347 | -3.235 | | 子盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | -9 | 13. 988 | 53 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪锡 | 5.884 | -22 | l | l | | | 伦锡 | 3. 085 | O | 6. 57% | -0. 38% | | | SMM ...

| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodities showed mixed performance, with silver leading gains by over 2%, while other commodities like tin, SC crude oil, synthetic rubber, low-sulfur fuel oil, rapeseed oil, iron ore, and lead rose by more than 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1487.7 points, up 7.73 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2053.27 points, up 11.28 points or 0.55% [1] Group 2: Silver and Tin Market Dynamics - Silver prices continued to rise, driven by weak U.S. employment data which boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, positively impacting precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Tin prices increased by 1.75% due to tight supply expectations, influenced by reduced tin ingot exports from Indonesia and slow recovery in production from Wa State [2] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Insights - Crude oil prices were supported by geopolitical tensions affecting supply expectations, with SC crude oil main contract rising by 1.52% [3] - However, market analysts caution that while geopolitical factors provide short-term support, the overall market remains under pressure due to macroeconomic conditions and potential risks from U.S. government shutdowns [3] Group 4: Egg and Red Date Market Trends - Egg futures experienced a significant drop of over 3%, attributed to an oversupply issue and pressure from the approaching delivery of near-month contracts [5] - Red date futures have been declining due to increased selling pressure from previously locked-in stocks, with expectations of further price declines as supply exceeds demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The ongoing government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2][4]. - Silver: Expected to rebound with oscillations [2][5]. - Copper: Lacks clear drivers, with prices expected to oscillate [2][9]. - Zinc: Expected to trade within a range [2][12]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][19]. - Aluminum: Expected to perform strongly [2][23]. - Alumina: Expected to rebound from the bottom [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Constrained by inventory accumulation at the smelting end, supported by uncertainties at the mine end [2][25]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 with a daily decline of 0.36% and a night - session increase of 0.63% to 916.38; Comex Gold 2512 rose 1.25% to 3990.40 [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a night - session increase of 1.58% to 11381; Comex Silver 2512 rose 2.06% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Silver trend strength is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 85670 with a daily decline of 0.08% and a night - session increase of 0.27% to 85900; LME Copper 3M rose 0.79% to 10733 [9]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter; Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export quota; Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month and down 4.5% year - on - year; Glencore plans to close its Canadian smelter and refinery [9][11]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22650 with a daily decline of 0.09%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3077.5 with a decline of 0.98% [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17475 with a daily increase of 0.34%; LME Lead 3M closed at 2021 with a decline of 0.44% [16]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 282090 with a daily decline of 0.58% and a night - session increase of 0.28% to 282820; LME Tin 3M rose 0.21% to 35745 [19]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21395, Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2772, and the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20830 [23]. - **Industry News**: US employment showed signs of stabilization; the US October ISM services PMI rebounded strongly [24]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0, indicating neutral views [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120030, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12535 [25]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over by the forestry working group; China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China [25][26][27]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0, indicating neutral views [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on tin, highlighting the need to pay attention to macro - level impacts. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - For the Shanghai Tin main contract, the yesterday's closing price was 286,350 with a daily decline of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 280,830 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 105,146, an increase of 26,165 from the previous day, and the open interest was 34,660, a decrease of 288 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,809, a decrease of 42 from the previous day [2]. - For the LME Tin 3M electronic disk, the yesterday's closing price was 35,350 with a decline of 3.99%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,410, an increase of 20 from the previous day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 288,600, an increase of 5,000 from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 62, a decrease of 5 from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 91,110, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,510, a decrease of 8,380 from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 272,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 276,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export controls on rare earths and other items are not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and engage in dialogue and negotiation [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, stating that the facts are clear and the evidence is conclusive [3]. - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed to five, and a BlackRock executive impressed someone. Fed Governor Waller is concerned about the job market and is open to a 25 - basis - point rate cut [3]. - The White House announced permanent layoffs in the Trump administration for the first time in modern US history [3]. - The release of the US September CPI report is scheduled for October 24, 9 days later than originally planned [3]. - Japan's ruling coalition has broken up, with Komeito announcing it will no longer form a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and rejecting support for Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices were volatile, closing at 274,160 yuan/ton on Friday. Fundamentally, the overseas LME structure declined significantly to -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium also dropped to 250 yuan/ton, indicating a simultaneous weakening of domestic and foreign supply and demand. Social inventories increased, with overseas LME inventories rising by 300 tons and domestic inventories by 108 tons. In terms of tin ingot production, the weekly operating rate dropped significantly to 28% due to maintenance at Yunnan enterprises such as Yunnan Tin, but due to sufficient enterprise inventories, it may not actually affect the market supply of tin ingots. Macroscopically, this week's non - farm payroll data was poor, leading to concerns about overseas economic performance and a decline in risk appetite. It is believed that tin prices will face downward pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 250 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventories increased by 108 tons, and futures inventories decreased by 79 tons. LME inventories increased by 390 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 7.06% [25][30]. - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated capital for Shanghai tin was 162.85 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [37][43]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [48]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In May 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%; in July 2025, the import volume was 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profitability of tin ore imports increased slightly [52][53]. - **Smelting**: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces dropped significantly to 28% [58][60]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net imports were 393 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profitability was -16,622 yuan/ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Use Consumption) - **Consumption Volume**: In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [78]. - **End - Use Consumption**: In July 2025, the end - use production performance varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, generally showing a month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of tin prices [85][87][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated July 24, 2025 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The price of tin is affected by the flood in Wa State [1] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,540 with a daily increase of 0.01%, and the trading volume was 69,039, an increase of 5,372 from the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,750 with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day [2] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,807, an increase of 16 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 1,690, a decrease of 25 from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 266,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day, and the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 269,100, an increase of 2,500 from the previous day [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 254,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 258,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day [2] 4.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30 [3] - The media reported that the US and the EU are close to reaching an agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on the EU. The White House responded that it was speculation. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on 100 billion euros of US goods [3] - Trump said that the US and Japan reached an agreement, and Japan accepted a 15% tax rate and opened the automobile and rice markets. The three major US automakers were dissatisfied with the US - Japan trade agreement [3] - The US Treasury Secretary said that there is no rush to finalize the successor to Powell [3] - Ishiba Shigeru denied the "resignation rumor" and said that he had not discussed whether to stay or step down [3] - The auction demand for 40 - year Japanese long - term bonds hit a 14 - year low [3] - The White House released an "AI Action Plan" to relax regulations and expand energy to accelerate AI development [5] - Hainan Free Trade Port will be sealed off on December 18, with a 74% "zero - tariff" commodity ratio and 8 "first - line" ports [5] - Tesla's Q2 performance was dismal, with the largest sales decline in a decade. Musk warned that the situation may be severe in the next few quarters [5] 4.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The range of trend intensity is in the interval of [-2, 2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]