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产业革命推升需求,国际资本追寻避险,贵金属价格上演“岁末过山车”
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-30 22:44
【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩 环球时报特约记者 辛斌】2025年末,全球贵金属市场在经历长达数月的狂热上涨后,骤然遭遇刺骨"寒流"。12月29 日,黄金、白银双双从其刚刚创下的年内峰值大幅回撤。当天现货白银价格下跌9%至每盎司略低于72美元,并拖累国际金价下跌超过4%。分析 认为,受到全球需求端变化、地缘政治紧张以及货币政策调整等因素影响,全球贵金属价格波动可能在明年逐渐企稳。 据美国《华尔街日报》12月29日报道,最近的一波银价高位是由全球珠宝商、医疗设备制造商、电动汽车制造商、数据中心开发商,尤其是太阳 能电池板工厂对白银的需求支撑。花旗集团分析师估计,太阳能行业消耗的白银量已占到采矿和回收年产量的近30%。报道援引Sprott Asset Management首席执行官约翰·钱帕利亚的话称:"尽管美国对太阳能的支持有所减弱,但欧洲国家和中国并未放缓太阳能装机步伐,这消耗了大量 白银。" 白银涨价"并非好事" 据彭博社12月29日报道,2025年黄金经历一轮戏剧性大涨,原因是美国政府推行的经济政策促使投资者和各国央行纷纷转向避险资产。然而眼 下"抢走聚光灯"的却是白银。在12月底,白银价格一度突破每盎司80 ...
所长早读:10月金融数据发布,存款搬家持续-20251114
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 01:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - 10 - month financial data shows continued deposit transfer, with credit growth slowing due to the off - season and delayed policy effects. The deposit activation trend has slightly slowed, but the deposit transfer process continues in the context of a vibrant capital market [7][8]. - PX has a strong medium - term trend and is suitable for positive spreads. Factors such as overseas blending demand, supply shortages, and future supply - demand gaps support this view [9][10]. - Pure benzene is mainly in short - term oscillations, and it is advisable to buy on dips for PX - BZ [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, it reached a new high [14][17]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [14]. - **Copper**: Macro - disturbances limit price increases [14][21]. - **Zinc**: Trades in a range [14][24]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [14][27]. - **Tin**: Declined from high levels [14][29]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slight upward bias; Alumina oscillates at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [14][35]. - **Nickel**: High inventories and Indonesian risks lead to low - level oscillations; Stainless steel lacks upward drivers and has limited downside [14][38]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates at high levels with potential upward pressure [14][43]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Medium - term trend is strong, positive spreads [9][10][68]. - **PTA**: Cost - supported, with high - level oscillations and limited positive spread space [68][71]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure eases marginally, but the rebound height is limited [68][72]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates [14][73]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term oscillations are supported [14][77]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillates at low levels [14][80]. - **LLDPE**: Some supply disturbances, attention to import pressure [14][93]. - **PP**: Trend is weak [14][97]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillates [14][102]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates [14][107]. - **Glass**: Spot prices are stable [14][112]. - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillations [14][116]. - **Urea**: Runs within the valuation range [14][120]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations [14][123]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [14][126]. - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; Propylene has short - term support due to narrowing supply - demand [14][129]. - **PVC**: Still under pressure [14][137]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, weaker than low - sulfur in the short term; Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and weakens [14][142]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks drivers and oscillates [14][160][172]. - **Soybean Oil**: With stable US soybeans, the spread between soybean and palm oil continues to widen [14][172]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report [14][179]. - **Soybean**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the report [14][179]. - **Corn**: Oscillates [14][182]. - **Cotton**: Lacks upward drivers and the price declines slightly [14][186]. - **Eggs**: Maintains oscillations [14][192]. - **Hogs**: The spread between fat and standard pigs weakens, and drivers emerge [14][194]. - **Peanuts**: Attention to the spot market [14][198]. Others - **Logs**: Oscillates repeatedly [14][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillates [14][144]. - **Short Fibers**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at low levels [14][160].