技术面来看，美元兑加元短期呈现温和上行态势。从近期走势看，汇价自2月中旬低位逐步反弹，日内 依托1.3690支撑震荡走高，4小时图显示多头动能温和，短期支撑位于1.3690附近，若有效站稳该位置， 有望进一步测试1.3724前期高位；上方阻力集中在1.3705—1.3724区间，突破后将进一步打开上行空 间，若未能突破则可能重回区间震荡整理。 后市展望，美元兑加元短期仍将维持震荡走强格局，走势取决于美联储政策动向及加拿大经济数据表 现。机构分析认为，美联储与加拿大央行的货币政策分化将继续支撑汇价，但需警惕加拿大经济数据超 预期回暖及美联储官员鸽派讲话带来的回调风险。投资者需重点关注美国通胀数据、美联储及加拿大央 行官员讲话，合理控制仓位与止损。 2026年2月25日，美元兑加元延续震荡走强态势，截至亚市尾盘报1.3702，微涨0.05%，日内交投于 1.3692至1.3705区间。汇价走势主要受美联储与加拿大央行货币政策分化及美元整体偏强格局主导，短 期呈现温和上行态势，多空博弈相对平缓。 基本面核心驱动聚焦美联储与加拿大央行货币政策差异，这一格局持续支撑美元兑加元。美联储方面， 降息预期持续遇冷，1月会议纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside commodity price movements and technical patterns in the market [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in January, citing stagnation in domestic economic growth and slowing inflation, leading to market expectations for easing this year [1]. - Canada's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is only 1.1%, with weak domestic demand and high unemployment further suppressing the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes indicated a delay in interest rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation has not yet met targets, which continues to favor the US dollar [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently stable above the strong support level of 1.3600, with a clear upward channel formed by short-term moving averages [1]. - Key resistance is identified at 1.3680, with a potential upward move towards the 1.3710 peak if this level is breached; core support is at 1.3640, with 1.3600 as secondary support [1]. - Technical indicators show a continuation of bullish momentum, with MACD above the zero line and RSI in a neutral to strong range, indicating no overbought conditions [1]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - Focus is on the upcoming US initial jobless claims data, which, if strong, could boost the dollar and push the exchange rate towards the 1.3680 resistance [2]. - A rebound in oil prices could support the Canadian dollar, potentially leading to a correction in the exchange rate [2]. - The short-term outlook remains bullish for the USD/CAD exchange rate, given the ongoing divergence in monetary policies and favorable technical conditions [2].

Group 1 - The core support for the Canadian dollar comes from the continuous rise in oil prices, driven by supply concerns related to the situation in Iran, which has led to a weakening of the USD/CAD pair for two consecutive days [1] - The WTI crude oil price has been rising for several consecutive trading days, reflecting the sensitivity of the Canadian dollar to oil price fluctuations [1] - The geopolitical tension regarding Iran has intensified market expectations of potential supply disruptions, further amplifying oil price volatility [1] Group 2 - The downward space for the USD/CAD pair is constrained by multiple factors, including signs of stabilization in the USD after a slight decline [2] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations that stronger inflation data could undermine Fed easing expectations and provide short-term support for the USD [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to affect market sentiment, with uncertainties surrounding recent judicial comments and upcoming Supreme Court rulings on tariff policies [2]