Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is currently cautious, with investors focusing on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, following an unexpected decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which has strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. USD Analysis - The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering around 97.82, with a slight increase of 0.08% to close at 97.83 on Wednesday, marking a nearly 10% decline year-to-date. Concerns over U.S. fiscal and trade policy uncertainties, along with doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence, continue to suppress the dollar's performance [2]. - Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is oscillating within the range of 97.253 to 98.834, with significant resistance levels at 98.100 (50-day moving average) and 98.317. The market is expected to maintain this range until the CPI data is released, which is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the dollar's next direction [4]. EUR/USD Analysis - The EUR/USD is trading around 1.1700, remaining stable as the dollar weakens. Fitch Ratings predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, while the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged with a 93% probability. This divergence in monetary policy supports the euro in a weak dollar environment [5]. - From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has broken below 1.1700 but found strong support near the 20-day moving average (1.1672) and the 50-day moving average (1.1659). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased from 60 to 52, indicating a weakening buying momentum [7]. GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently fluctuating around 1.3530, with the market also focused on the U.S. CPI data. The weak PPI data for August has further increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus suggests that the headline CPI for August may rise to 2.9%, while the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.1% [7]. - Technically, the GBP/USD is consolidating within the range of 1.3500 to 1.3550, with resistance levels at 1.3550, 1.3590, and 1.3681, and support levels at 1.3500, the 20-day moving average (1.3491), and the 50-day moving average (1.3465). The RSI remains bullish but is trending flat, indicating a potential wait for data release before any breakout [9]. Overall Market Sentiment - The U.S. Dollar Index is maintaining a weak pattern within a consolidation range, with the market having largely priced in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The euro is supported by differing policy expectations, although its momentum is weakening, while the pound is consolidating between key support and resistance levels. The foreign exchange market is likely to see clearer directional movement following the release of the U.S. CPI data [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US dollar index and the implications of recent employment data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a strong market expectation for a rate cut in September. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently priced at 98.49, with a slight decline of 0.01% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - There is a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September due to weak employment data [1] - The ISM services price index is showing signs of increasing inflation pressure, which could challenge the prevailing view of an assured rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The recent rebound of the dollar index from a low of 96.3729 to a resistance level of 100.2599 indicates a potential false breakout [1] - The dollar index has moved upward within a short-term consolidation range of 98.00 to 99.00 but has not yet broken through the upper resistance of this range [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be crucial; if inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess its rate cut predictions [1] - The nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may further bolster the dovish sentiment in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that there is a significant resistance level for spot gold around $3365, with a notable imbalance in order flow suggesting that bears dominate this area [1] - The order flow analysis reveals that major sell orders are concentrated between $3364 and $3366, highlighting the importance of breaking through this resistance for further upward movement in gold prices [1] - Caution is advised ahead of the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it may impact market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September [1] Group 1 - The U.S. CPI data has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]