日线（波段多） 阻力：98.25 四小时（短期） 短线关键分水岭98.40-50区域，价格没有出现反转信号之前维持多 美元兑日元（USDJPY） 月线（长线多） 支撑：151 1月5日，美元指数 周线（关注收盘） 阻力：99 周线（中线多） 支撑：154.90 日线（关注得失） 阻力：156.30 四小时（短期） 短线分水岭156.70-80区域，价格没有出现反转信号之前维持多 美元兑加元（USDCAD） 月线（长线空） 阻力：1.3990 月线（长线空） 阻力：101.70 周线（中线空） 阻力：1.3900 日线（波段多） 支撑：1.3730 四小时（短期） 关键分水岭1.3720-30区域，价格没有出现反转信号之前维持多 美元兑瑞士法郎（USDCHF） 月线（长线空） 支撑：0.8320 周线（关注周线收盘） 阻力：0.7980 日线（波段多） 支撑：0.7920 四小时（短期） 关键分水岭0.7920-30区域，价格没有出现反转信号之前维持多 欧元兑美元（EURUSD） 月线（长线多） 支撑：1.1270 周线（关注周线收盘） 支撑：1.1640 日线（波段空） 阻力：1.1745 四小时（短期） 关 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the USD/CAD exchange rate is focused on the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, with the former pausing interest rate cuts while the latter continues its accommodative stance [1][3] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate at 2.25% after a total of 100 basis points of cuts throughout the year, signaling a neutral to hawkish stance, which has led the market to price in potential rate hikes by 2026 [1][2] - In contrast, the Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with expectations of only one more cut next year, but internal dissent among officials indicates significant divisions [1][2] Group 2 - Canada's economy shows resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3 and a drop in unemployment to 6.5%, supporting the central bank's policy stance [2] - However, as a resource-exporting economy, the Canadian dollar is still pressured by falling oil prices, which are projected to decline by 15.2% by 2025, affecting export revenues [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela/Russia, have increased volatility and boosted demand for the dollar as a safe haven, further suppressing the Canadian dollar [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to the interplay of monetary policy divergence, oil price volatility, and economic fundamentals [3] - Key future indicators to watch include guidance on potential rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, OPEC+ production policies, U.S. inflation data, and developments in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations [3]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index shows a long-term bearish trend with resistance levels at 101.70 (monthly), 98.90 (weekly), and 98.70 (daily) [1][12] - The USD/JPY pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 150.40 (monthly) and 153.8 (weekly), while resistance is at 155.80 (daily) [1][13] - The USD/CAD pair has a critical support zone between 1.3775-1.3855, maintaining a bullish outlook until a reversal signal appears [2][13] Group 2 - The EUR/USD pair shows a long-term bullish trend with support at 1.1180 (monthly) and resistance at 1.1640 (weekly) [3][17] - The GBP/USD pair has a long-term bullish outlook with support at 1.3100 (monthly) and resistance at 1.3300 (weekly) [6][18] - The AUD/USD pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 0.6430 (monthly) and resistance at 0.6550 (weekly) [22] Group 3 - The NZD/USD pair has a critical resistance level at 0.6630, maintaining a bearish outlook until a reversal signal appears [21] - The USD/CHF pair shows a long-term bearish trend with support at 0.8390 (monthly) [13] - The economic data to be monitored includes China's one-year loan market quotation rate and the UK's Q3 GDP final value [11][23]

12月22日，美元兑加元报1.3796，较前一交易日微涨0.0002，跌幅收窄至-0.0362%，日内波动1.3787- 1.3804。近期该货币对持续区间博弈，核心驱动为美加央行政策分化，叠加油价低迷、经济数据分化及 地缘风险，短期方向不明。 作为商品货币，加元持续受油价拖累。2025年油价累计跌15.2%，近期跌至10月下旬低位，布油曾破70 美元/桶，削弱加拿大原油出口收入，压制加元、支撑美元兑加元。此外，美国封锁委内瑞拉制裁油轮 航运、强化对俄能源制裁，引发供应担忧，推升美元避险需求，进一步压制加元。 技术面看，美元兑加元呈空头主导。日线图显示，汇价连续收于关键均线下方，短期均线空头排列， 1.3800上方阻力未突破；MACD零轴下死叉、动能柱放大，印证空头延续；RSI弱势未超卖，仍有下探 空间。 机构预测，短期核心波动区间1.3740-1.3830，支撑位1.3720—1.3680(跌破或加速下行)，阻力位1.3830、 1.3890(未收复则弱势延续)。后续焦点为美国CPI、美联储官员讲话，及加拿大核心通胀、油价、美加贸 易消息。中长期走势取决于政策分化持续性、油价复苏及加国经济进程，全球不确定性 ...

周二（12月16日）纽约尾盘，欧元兑美元涨0.04%，报1.1757，非农就业报告发布后短线出现V形走 势、但整体上延续日内稍早涨势，北京时间23:01刷新日高至1.18上方。英镑兑美元涨0.37%，报 1.3426，美元兑瑞郎跌0.19%，报0.7947。商品货币对中，澳元兑美元跌0.09%，纽元兑美元涨0.15%， 美元兑加元跌0.14%。 ...

与此同时，除澳元、新西兰元等澳大拉西亚货币外，加元相对其他主要货币均表现强势，核心原因在于加拿大央行短期内降息的可能性极低。在周三发布的 货币政策声明中，加拿大央行重申，"只要经济和通胀走势符合预期，当前利率水平足以将通胀维持在2%的目标附近"。 IC外汇平台美元兑加元技术面分析 美元兑加元（USD/CAD）已连续第四个交易日下跌。受美元持续走弱影响，该货币对进一步下探至1.3750附近。美联储在周三释放信号，称计划到2026年 将联邦基金利率降至3.4%；而加拿大央行（BoC）本周则表示，短期内应维持当前利率水平。 周五，美元兑加元延续四连跌走势。欧洲交易时段，该货币对下跌0.1%，交投于1.3750附近。周三美联储公布货币政策决议后，美元表现疲软，直接对美元 兑加元形成压制。 截至发稿，追踪美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）仍处于脆弱区间，徘徊在周四创下的七周低点98.13附近。 市场预期美联储2026年的降息次数将超过最新点阵图显示的水平，这一预期推动美元全面走软。CME美联储观察工具（CMEFedWatchTool）数据显示，截 至2026年10月，美联储至少降息两次的概率已达58%。与之形成 ...

Group 1 - The market is showing cautious sentiment regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, as evidenced by the dollar index retreating to a key level of 98.80 [1] - Major dollar currency pairs, such as USD/JPY and USD/CAD, are finding support around 154.80 and 1.38 respectively, reflecting market expectations [1] Group 2 - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence, with silver prices nearing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, while gold remains below $4260 per ounce, indicating relative underperformance [3] - The Nasdaq index is currently around 25,800 points, approximately 500 points away from its historical peak, while the S&P 500 index is also near record levels, just 40 points off [3] Group 3 - The recent performance of USD/CAD aligns with market expectations regarding monetary policy, with prices consolidating around 1.38, which corresponds to the mid-support of a medium-term channel [5] - If the consolidation pattern continues, the lower support level to watch is around 1.37, with potential upward movement if prices exceed 1.3970 [5] Group 4 - USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, testing the upper boundary of an upward channel that has acted as resistance since May [8] - If the price holds above 154.80, it may turn into support, with potential upward testing towards the 159 to 160 range if the trend continues [8]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market showed mixed performance with the Euro and British Pound remaining stable against the US Dollar while commodity currencies experienced slight fluctuations [1] Currency Performance - Euro to US Dollar remained flat at 1.1597 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar remained flat at 1.3240 [1] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc increased by 0.06% to 0.8048 [1] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar rose by 0.23% [1] - New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar increased by 0.47% [1] - US Dollar to Canadian Dollar decreased by 0.10% [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - Swedish Krona to US Dollar increased by 0.20% [1] - Norwegian Krone to US Dollar rose by 0.42% [1] - Danish Krone to US Dollar remained stable [1] - Polish Zloty to US Dollar increased by 0.10% [1] - Hungarian Forint to US Dollar rose by 0.18% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 18. Currency Movements - The Euro against the US Dollar decreased by 0.08%, closing at 1.1583, with a daily high of 1.1608 and a low of 1.1572 [1] - The British Pound against the US Dollar fell by 0.03%, settling at 1.3151 [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.43% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.7996, after hitting a daily low of 0.7938 [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar increased by 0.31% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar declined by 0.52% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currency Movements - The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krona both appreciated by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krone decreased by 0.08% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty fell by 0.18% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint increased by 0.12% [1]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has fallen below the 1.4000 mark due to increased risk appetite in the market, leading to a weaker US dollar [1][3] - The end of the US government shutdown has boosted market sentiment, contributing to the decline of the USD [3] - The Canadian central bank has adopted a more cautious stance on monetary policy, which has strengthened the Canadian dollar [3] Group 2 - The USD/CAD has experienced a six-day consecutive decline, reaching a ten-day low as optimism surrounding the US government reopening dampens the dollar [3] - The market is reacting to President Trump's signing of a bill that allows the federal government to resume operations and release delayed macroeconomic data, although the timing of specific data releases remains uncertain [3] - Divergence in monetary policy views among Federal Reserve officials has led to a decrease in expectations for a rate cut in December, with futures markets showing a 54% probability of a 25 basis point cut, down from 67% last week and over 90% a month ago [3] - Strong employment data from Canada and the Bank of Canada's cautious monetary policy stance have prompted investors to reassess expectations for further easing, contributing to the Canadian dollar's strength [3]