Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]