Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment is good, and the coking coal futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong operation [2] - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at the 2460 level [3] - The short - term hog price is expected to be slightly weak, and range trading is recommended [5] - The palm oil price is expected to be weak in the short - term [5] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with strong technical support in the 2900 - 2920 range [6] - The iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and short - term long positions are recommended on dips [7] - The rebar futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 1260 level [9] - The PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 7115 level [10] - The crude oil is bearish at high levels [11] - Short - term short positions on PTA at high levels are recommended [11] - Caution is advised regarding the rubber's rebound, and it is better to wait and see [12] - The short - term decline space of short - term treasury bonds is limited, and the stock - bond seesaw should be monitored [13] - Whether the medium - and long - term treasury bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen, and the July Politburo meeting should be watched [13] - The silver is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] - The gold will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern, and the dollar - gold seesaw is the main logic [14] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that coke daily output, capacity utilization, and inventories of coke, coking coal, and injection coal have changed. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, but the futures price has rebounded due to positive news [2] Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda has increased, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has declined. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [3] Hog - The agricultural product wholesale price index shows an increase in pork and egg prices. However, due to supply - demand game and increasing supply pressure, the hog price is expected to be slightly weak [5] Palm Oil - Malaysia's June palm oil production decreased, imports increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Soybean Meal - Brazil's expected July soybean and soybean meal exports have increased, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to trade concerns and oil mill situations [6] Iron Ore - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. Demand has also shown some changes, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Rebar - Rebar production has decreased, inventory has continued to decline slightly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to policy expectations [8] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward trend, production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene has increased, the capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Crude Oil - OPEC is discussing pausing further production increases, and demand has been revised down. The price is bearish at high levels [11] PTA - The price of PX and PTA and relevant cash - flow costs are given. Due to weak demand and a weakening crude oil, short - term short positions at high levels are recommended [11] Rubber - The prices of Thai and Hainan rubber raw materials are provided. Supply is increasing slowly, and demand is weak. Caution is advised regarding the rebound [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term interest rates have changed, indicating tight short - term liquidity. The short - term decline space is limited [13] Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Local governments have issued a large amount of replacement bonds, and fiscal policies are active. Whether the bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen [13] Silver - Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The silver price has broken through the oscillation range, and the short - term is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has decreased, and the dollar index has risen. Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The gold price will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern [14]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，远超 预期的11万人， 4月和5月就业人数合计上修1.6万人。失业率 意外降至4.1%，预期为升至4.3%。美国上周初请失业金人数 23.3万人，创六周新低。评：美国非农大幅超预期，市场降低 了对7月降息的押注，黄金进一步上涨动力不足，如果美元持续 反弹，将利空黄金。市场关注地缘及关税扰动。黄金中期震荡 格局并未改变，关注美元走势，美元和黄金跷跷板是近期主要 逻辑。 【短评-原油】特朗普"大而美法案"结束对太阳能和风能 长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生产营造友好环境，该法案 已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成法律；特朗普"大而美法 案"结束对太阳能和风能长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生 产营造友好环境，该法案已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成 法律；贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止7月3日的一周，美国在 线钻探油井数量425座，为2021年9月份以来最低，比前周减少7 座。评："大而美法案"为传统能源营造友好环境，关注7月6 日OPEC+产量政策，目前OPEC+维持增产的立场不变，需求偏 弱。短期需求旺季，低库存使得油价较抗跌，长期供需预 ...