Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation", with Jiao Coal 2601 having a short - term "interval oscillation", mid - term "oscillatory and bullish", and intraday "oscillatory and bearish", and Coke 2601 having similar characteristics [1] - The Jiao Coal market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern, with short - term adjustments possible, but the medium - to - long - term price center has an upward basis. The Coke futures price may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall after a phased adjustment [5][6] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish; Mid - term view: Oscillatory and bullish; Reference view: Oscillation [5] - On August 19, the main Jiao Coal contract closed at 1194.5 points, down 1.89% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 713,900 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1190.0 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1167 yuan/ton [5] - After the "anti - involution" rectification, the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve, and the oversupply situation is expected to ease [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish; Mid - term view: Oscillatory and bullish; Reference view: Oscillation [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of the Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1520 yuan/ton, up 3.40% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week - on - week [6] - Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of Jiao Coal, the raw material of Coke. Although the actual supply of domestic Jiao Coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. The subsequent environmental protection production restrictions for the 9.3 military parade will support the fundamentals of Coke [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and showing a slightly stronger trend; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation due to the divergence between bulls and bears [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and slightly stronger; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined and coke is operating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On August 18, the main contract of coking coal dropped from a high level, closing at 1187.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.94%. The main contract of coke also dropped from a high level, closing at 1702 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56% [5][6]. 3.2 Core Logic - For coking coal, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and the futures have entered a high - level oscillation pattern. After the "anti - involution" rectification starting from July 1, the coking coal market may continue to improve gradually. Through mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation in the industry is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply - demand relationship will move towards a more balanced direction. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the medium - and long - term price center still has an upward basis [5]. - For coke, since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news of the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After the phased adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than to fall [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 乐观情绪降温，焦煤震荡整理 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 六轮涨价落地，焦炭高位震荡 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本轮"反内卷"整治由中央财经委员会定调，且获得多行业积极响应，后续焦煤市场 或将继续呈现渐进式改善。通过温和有序的产能优化 ...

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased to nearly 90%, driven by negative impacts of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, including a decline in consumer purchasing power and a drop in service sector PMI [2] - The core driver of market growth in the short term is abundant liquidity rather than fundamentals, as evidenced by historical data showing that even with slowing GDP growth, stock market lows have continued to rise since 2011 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have upward potential in the second half of the year, supported by the "northbound capital" inflow, which typically leads the Hang Seng Index by 100-200 days [3] - The Hang Seng Index has risen 24% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing major markets globally, with a booming IPO market and significant performance in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and new consumption [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - Both Hong Kong and A-shares present investment opportunities, but require differentiated strategies; Hong Kong benefits from abundant liquidity and expected further easing, while A-shares have unique highlights such as infrastructure, Apple and Tesla supply chains, and the STAR Market [3] Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Challenges - The real estate sector faces significant challenges, with a continuous decline in housing prices over four years and major developers experiencing a sales growth drop of 25%-50% year-on-year as of July [4] - The importance of real estate in policy planning may be diminishing, as it is increasingly integrated into broader urban development frameworks [4] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The worst outcomes of the U.S.-China trade war have been priced in by the market, with short-term volatility expected but an overall upward market direction [5] - China holds advantages in critical areas such as rare earths and supply chain positioning, which provide leverage in negotiations, and there is a possibility of more constructive dialogue between the two nations [5]

知名分析师、莲花资管首席投资官洪灏近日在一场访谈中指出，关税政策对美国经济的负责作用正在显 现，美国服务业PMI不及预期，几个子指数开始快速恶化；由于进口锐减，美国贸易逆差减少，但美国 消费者已经明显买不动了。只是可能由于PMI仍在50以上，因此美联储没有足够充分的理由立即降息。 但是，市场已将9月降息的可能性提高到接近90%。 至于反内卷，洪灏认为这一次整治，面临的挑战比上次的还要困难得多，上游产业已经陷入通缩长达三 年，而这个通缩的价格压力正在往下游传导，因此，与上一轮没有通缩压力和房价泡沫化的去产能，是 非常不一样的。 另外，谈到中美的贸易问题，洪灏指出，贸易战最坏的结果已经过去，负面的新闻标题，还是会在一定 程度上引起一些短期的波动。 但是，总体的市场方向应该还是向上的。 来源：金融界 同时，他在一场播客中对A股、港股市场的表现，上涨动力、投资方向、贸易战后续影响等问题发表了 最新看法。 洪灏认为，在短期，基本面并不是最重要的因素，市场涨起来最重要的因素，是市场的流动性够充沛。 比如从2011年到现在，我们的GDP增速是拾级而下的，那为什么股票它的底部还是在不断抬高；如果我 们把2005年以来每一个低 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 乐观氛围释放，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 116 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 7 月 30 日 煤焦日报 政策预期兑现，煤焦宽幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 30 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1676.5 元/吨，日内录得 4.00%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.94 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1823 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1420 元/吨，周环比上涨 7.58%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1390 元/ 吨，周环比上涨 0.72%。当前，焦炭基本面压力不大，且焦煤中长期供需 格局好转预期给焦炭带来成本端支撑，市场经历短期回调后，焦炭期货再 次走强。 焦煤：本轮上涨主要逻辑在于"反内卷整治"以及后续国家能源局综合司 108 号文提出的"超产整治"。然而据了解，目前陕西、内蒙超产情况有 限，山西在经历 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象也得到有效遏制。 因此，本轮行业政策的实际影响有待事实验证，上周五夜盘起，焦煤主力 合约迎来回调。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，强调释放内需潜 力，持续化解重点领域风险。政策预期落地，带动焦煤期货继续宽幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On July 29, the main coke contract closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.62%. The trading volume was 47,227 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. Positive news supported the low - level rebound of coke futures, but after the short - term release of optimistic sentiment, coke futures entered a phased correction due to the unverified impact of coal mine over - production rectification on coking coal output [5][30]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 29, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,120.5 points, with an intraday decline of 6.63%. The trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,177 yuan/ton. The price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification", but the actual impact of these policies remains to be verified. In the short term, there is still a risk of correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise after the capacity optimization and upgrading of the coal industry [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Real Estate**: From July 21 to July 27, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 34.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On July 29, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, and all 1.0048 million tons were sold at a price of 78.5 US dollars/ton, excluding tax. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 360 days after payment, with the final supply date being July 29, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port had a current price of 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.93%. At Qingdao Port, the price was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, a month - on - month increase of 20.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.58% [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, a month - on - month increase of 38.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%, a month - on - month increase of 22.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.00%, a month - on - month increase of 32.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,633 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.62%. The highest price was 1,639 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,573.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 47,227 lots, a decrease of 15,715 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,120.5 points, with a decline of 6.63%. The highest price was 1,129.5 points, the lowest was 1,050 points, the trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (including independent coking plants, steel mills' coking plants, ports), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [14][26][29]. 3.5 Future Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term correction risk and long - term improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda futures continues to rise, driven by policy expectations, industry chain resonance, and cost support from low liquid chlorine prices, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Recent market discussions around "anti-involution" reforms have led to a rebound in commodity markets, with supply-side reform expectations boosting market confidence [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to implement a new growth plan for ten key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Resonance - The chemical industry outlook has improved due to policies aimed at phasing out outdated hazardous chemical production processes, leading to significant price increases in upstream and downstream products such as alumina, coking coal, and soda ash [2]. - Coking coal prices are rising, providing strong cost support for caustic soda, while alumina, a major downstream product, is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations and structural supply-demand imbalances [2]. Group 3: Current Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, 2025, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, with production at 809,700 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Liquid caustic soda inventory is at 383,900 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.56%, while flake caustic soda inventory is at 24,000 tons, also reflecting a month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: Demand Side - The alumina industry maintains a high production level, supporting caustic soda demand, while the viscose staple fiber sector is also showing slight improvements in production and operating rates [12]. - Non-alumina demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with some resistance to high prices from certain enterprises [12]. Group 5: Cost and Profit Analysis - Liquid chlorine prices in Shandong are maintaining a low level, providing some cost support for caustic soda production [17]. - The overall profit margins for the chlor-alkali industry are at a low point but have shown slight recovery, although rising coal prices and high electricity loads may increase production costs [17]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment is driven by expectations of phasing out old production facilities, with improved downstream operations and a potential increase in inventory replenishment as the market atmosphere warms [21]. - Future attention should be given to the impact of new production capacity and the implementation of anti-involution policies on the supply side, as well as the potential negative effects of further declines in liquid chlorine prices on caustic soda costs and profits [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea. Coking coal remains strong due to over - production rectification support, and coke operates at a high level due to strong cost support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, on July 22, there were documents on coal mine production verification and rectification of over - producing coal mines in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang. This will change the subsequent supply pattern of coking coal. However, the over - production in Shanxi has been curbed after the "Three - Over Rectification" in 2024, so the impact of this policy needs continuous tracking. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5]. Coke (J) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The news of coal mine over - production rectification has increased the expectation of coking coal supply contraction, driving the coke futures to strengthen. On July 21, coke enterprises started the second round of price increase for coke spot due to losses, and the futures market has improved the spot atmosphere. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project has started, which will boost the long - term demand for cement and steel. The anti - involution theme continues to ferment, and with the positive news from the demand side, the coke market is optimistic, and the main contract maintains a strong operation [6].