欧元/美元从周二创下的四年高点1.1875 上方略有回落，目前在1.1855 附近徘徊。自上周五低点以来，该货币对已反弹近2%，市场普遍预期美联储将在即将 公布的政策会议上降息 25 个基点，并可能在年内再度降息一至两次。 市场动因摘要：美元可能受制于美联储立场 近几日美元承压下跌，因投资者大幅押注美联储将转向鸽派。然而，如果美联储坚持未来决策仍将取决于经济数据，而非立即承诺进一步宽松，投资者或将 失望。 周二，美国总统特朗普试图罢免的美联储理事Lisa Cook 获得法院支持继续留任；前特朗普经济顾问Stephen Miran 则宣誓就任新任理事，接替Adriana Kugler。 在宏观层面，美国8 月零售销售同比增长5%，高于市场预期的4.1%；前值也被上修。欧洲方面，德国ZEW 经济景气指数意外升至 37.3，远好于预期的 27.3；欧元区整体经济景气指数亦升至26.1，逆转市场对下滑的预期。欧元区7 月工业产出环比增长 0.3%，同比增幅加快至1.8%。 KVB官网技术面分析：欧元或面临回调压力 近期，美国疲软的劳动数据与温和的通胀压力强化了市场对宽松政策的押注。如今，焦点完全落在美联储身上，降息几 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals by Guotai Junan Futures on July 4, 2025, covering copper, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] Core Views - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2] - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 80,540 with a decline of - 0.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 with a decline of - 0.58% [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 24,103, a decrease of 994; LME Copper inventory was 94,325, an increase of 1,075 [4] - **Spreads**: The LME copper ascension discount was 87.61, a decrease of 8.59 compared to the previous day [4] Macro and Industry News - US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [4] - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, with the production scale increasing to 30 million tons/year [4] - The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/kiloton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4] Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420 with a decline of - 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 269,130 with an increase of 0.04%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 with an increase of 0.66% [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,882, a decrease of 6; LME Tin inventory was 2,165, a decrease of 50 [8] - **Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 compared to the previous day [8] Macro and Industry News - The "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives by a narrow margin, bringing a deficit of 3.4 trillion [9] - The US non - farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, and the market abandoned the bet on a rate cut in July [9] Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 [11] - **Spreads**: The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day [11] Macro and Industry News - The governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [11] - The CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project in Indonesia entered the trial production stage [12] - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [13][14] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both indicating a neutral view [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has potential for recovery due to a shift in the Trump administration's focus from threats and large-scale tariffs to trade agreement negotiations [1]