Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has slightly retreated from a four-year high of 1.1875, currently hovering around 1.1855, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong growth of 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, marking three consecutive months of robust expansion [1] - The U.S. labor market remains weak, and rising tariffs are putting pressure on consumer spending, despite the positive retail sales data [1] - In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized consumer price index (HICP) is expected to show a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise to 2.1% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market is heavily focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, with a consensus that a rate cut is almost certain, although there may be an overestimation of the Fed's dovish guidance [1][3] - The recent economic data from the U.S. and Europe has led to a mixed sentiment, with the U.S. retail sales growth and the unexpected rise in Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD has risen for four consecutive days, breaking through the upper boundary of its ascending channel, with the RSI indicator entering the overbought territory [6] - Short-term market behavior is expected to remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with potential for a pullback if Powell's comments temper expectations for significant easing [6] - Key support levels for the Euro/USD are identified at 1.1830, 1.1790, and 1.1755, while resistance levels are at 1.1878 and 1.1885, with a psychological target of 1.2000 if the upward trend continues [7]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals by Guotai Junan Futures on July 4, 2025, covering copper, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] Core Views - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2] - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 80,540 with a decline of - 0.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 with a decline of - 0.58% [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 24,103, a decrease of 994; LME Copper inventory was 94,325, an increase of 1,075 [4] - **Spreads**: The LME copper ascension discount was 87.61, a decrease of 8.59 compared to the previous day [4] Macro and Industry News - US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [4] - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, with the production scale increasing to 30 million tons/year [4] - The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/kiloton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4] Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420 with a decline of - 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 269,130 with an increase of 0.04%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 with an increase of 0.66% [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,882, a decrease of 6; LME Tin inventory was 2,165, a decrease of 50 [8] - **Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 compared to the previous day [8] Macro and Industry News - The "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives by a narrow margin, bringing a deficit of 3.4 trillion [9] - The US non - farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, and the market abandoned the bet on a rate cut in July [9] Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 [11] - **Spreads**: The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day [11] Macro and Industry News - The governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [11] - The CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project in Indonesia entered the trial production stage [12] - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [13][14] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both indicating a neutral view [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has potential for recovery due to a shift in the Trump administration's focus from threats and large-scale tariffs to trade agreement negotiations [1]