德意志银行宏观策略师Tim Baker指出，过去十年间，12月毫无疑问是美元表现最差的月份，因交易员 抛售美元以平衡全年其他美国资产的收益。他补充称，若日本央行可能收紧政策且美国以外地区出现经 济意外，近期美元买盘可能在本月逆转。该行认为，美元存在回落至第三季度低点附近的空间，即较当 前水平下跌约2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are experiencing a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, influenced by fluctuations in international gold prices and market sentiment regarding economic conditions and monetary policy [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) is down 7.64%, trading at HKD 32.88 [1] - China Gold International (02099) has decreased by 6.6%, currently at HKD 134.5 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 5.67%, now at HKD 32.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) is down 4.01%, trading at HKD 40.2 [1] Market Conditions - International gold prices saw a sharp decline, briefly dropping below USD 4,120 per ounce before rebounding, after previously surpassing the USD 4,170 mark [1] - CITIC Futures noted that trade tensions and expectations of monetary easing are driving gold prices, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock [1] - The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, leading to a market sentiment of "no data is bullish," which continues to drive buying [1] - A potential short-term technical correction may occur if overbought conditions arise, with USD 4,000 identified as a key support level, and increased price volatility could trigger profit-taking [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex market environment for investors [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - Gold prices fluctuated, dropping from a high of $3370 to below $3350, marking a potential three-week decline [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its projection of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 have contributed to the bearish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. - Despite the overall weakness, a retreat in the US dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, have provided some support for gold prices [3][5]. Trading Strategy - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions, with key price levels to watch being $3330 for support and $3370 for resistance [5][6]. - The market is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, making it crucial for traders to adapt their strategies based on price movements [3][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to Iran's nuclear program, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - President Trump's statements regarding potential military action against Iran have further escalated concerns, impacting market sentiment [3].