声明：本文内容均是根据权威材料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，辛苦各位看官支持，请 知悉。 文丨球球 编辑丨竹林阁楼 最近西方媒体都在吵一个事：特朗普搞的关税政策，到底是不是在"瞎折腾"？ 不光可能让美国自己的经济出问题，连全球都开始怀疑美元那套金融体系还靠不靠谱了。 《纽约时报》记者从伦敦发回的报道，看得我有点慌，现在美国的情况，跟2008年金融危机前那股 子"风险堆一堆"的劲儿，太像了。 微观风险扎堆：美股靠"左手倒右手"涨，加密货币偷偷钻进银行 更有意思的是加密货币，以前摩根大通的CEO还喊着要禁它，结果今年自己发了个加密代币存款，规 模都到80亿美元了，这就是"嘴上说不要，身体很诚实"。 但加密货币这东西波动太大，上个月比特币一下子跌了25%，要是持有这些代币的客户慌了要取钱，银 行拿什么兜底？ 这风险可不是小事，跟2008年次贷危机时，那些没人要的房贷资产差不多，都在偷偷钻进传统金融体系 里。 先说美股，现在涨得挺热闹，但底下的门道有点"虚"。 就拿英伟达来说，本来想觉得它股价涨是因为芯片卖得好，后来发现不对，它给OpenAI借钱，OpenAI 拿着这钱又去买它的芯片。 这不就是"左手倒右手"嘛，硬生 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached 16 days, potentially becoming the second-longest in history if it continues beyond 17 days [4][6] - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant economic repercussions, including delays in key economic data releases and a negative impact on the U.S. economy [13][15] - Political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties are escalating, with accusations and blame being exchanged regarding the shutdown [7][11] Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to the freezing or cancellation of funding for over 200 projects across the U.S., totaling nearly $28 billion, primarily affecting Democratic-led states and projects [11][12] - The U.S. Labor Department has postponed the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which could hinder decision-making by the Federal Reserve [13][15] - The ongoing shutdown is estimated to cost the U.S. economy approximately $15 billion per day, raising concerns about long-term economic damage [15][17] Political Dynamics - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer criticized Republicans for the shutdown, attributing it to their refusal to negotiate [2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune expressed frustration over the Democrats' inaction, emphasizing the financial strain on American workers [3] - The Department of Homeland Security has attempted to shift blame to Democrats for the shutdown, although some airports have refused to broadcast this message due to political content regulations [7][9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, while silver prices have also risen above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 [1][3] - The market is speculating that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce in the near future, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: the impending interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing concerns about stock market bubbles, particularly in technology stocks [3] Group 2 - Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, which is a significant trend impacting gold prices [3] - The proportion of gold in foreign central banks' international reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996, marking a historic shift in reserve management [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, but short-term price movements may be influenced by upcoming U.S. employment data and investor behavior following holidays [5] Group 3 - Various ways for individuals to participate in the gold market include physical gold (bars and coins), gold ETFs, and gold stocks, each with different risk and liquidity profiles [5][6] - Gold stocks may offer higher returns compared to gold itself during a bull market, but they also come with greater volatility [6] - For those looking to hedge against market risks, physical gold or gold ETFs are recommended over gold stocks [6]