1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] - **Range - bound**: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - **Global Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比增加，短期供 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 应充足，但本周压榨量预计环比小幅下降，或减轻豆粕周度供应压力。美农 12 月 | | ★ | | 报告公布前夕，豆粕暂维持偏多震荡格局，但追多操作需谨慎，投机参与为主。关 | | | | 注报告内容及南美大豆种植天气后续进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。远期供需层面偏强，但近端港口库存同比偏 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 高存在压力，主力合约看多追多谨慎。受豆粕端天气升水炒作及低进口预期，远月 | | ★ | | 菜粕暂维持震荡偏多行情对待。关注美农 12 月报告及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | 11 | 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比增加较少，好于市场预期。欧 | | 棕榈油 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, but cautious about chasing long positions, focus on the US agricultural December report and South American soybean planting weather [1][3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, be cautious about chasing long positions in the main contract, pay attention to the US agricultural December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6] - Palm oil: Expected to stop falling in stages, be cautious about chasing long positions, pay attention to position and risk control [1][7] - Soybean oil: Short - term bullish oscillation, pay attention to South American soybean weather, treat it as a range market this week [1] - Rapeseed oil: Short - term bullish, take a bullish approach, be cautious about short - selling [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term moderate recovery opportunities [1][11] - Red dates: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 7339600 tons, up 189700 tons week - on - week; bean meal inventory was 1203200 tons, up 51700 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; national average spot price was 3116.57 yuan/ton, down 6.86 yuan or - 0.22% [2] - **Market Outlook**: Before the release of the US agricultural December report, it maintains a short - term bullish oscillation pattern, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3] Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons; unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; national average spot price was 2507.37 yuan/ton, down 12.1 yuan or - 0.48% [4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by weather premium speculation in the bean meal sector and low import expectations, the far - month rapeseed meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation [1][6] Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [7] - **Export and Production**: In November 2025 in Malaysia, different institutions' data showed a decline in palm oil exports, and the production decreased slightly [7] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price rebounded and closed up yesterday, but there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, so be cautious about chasing long positions [1][7] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion; in India, new cotton is on the market, and MSP purchases are affected by rain; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing is 73.87% complete, and non - main产区 starts sowing 2026 new cotton [9] - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, public inspection is over half, sales are fast, cost support is strengthened, but there is high inventory pressure [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term opportunities [1][11] Red Dates - **Supply**: New jujubes are on the market, and the expected production is 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation [13] - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10848 tons, up 518 tons week - on - week [13] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter increases, and the overall supply pressure is large [15][16] - **Demand**: Downstream slaughter increases, cold storage passively stocks up, and social retail catering consumption improves slightly [15] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16]