Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The preliminary agreement in the China-US trade negotiation has a short - term positive impact on US soybeans, but the subsequent negotiation and weather in the US soybean - growing areas remain uncertain. US soybeans are expected to fluctuate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets will also be affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volumes, and downstream demand [13][34]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern. The short - term demand is in the off - season, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. - The price of domestic soybeans is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic demand, and the expected increase in domestic production. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the market focusing on the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Prompt There is no specific content provided for the weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for the harvest situation and the planting weather in South America, as well as the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year is expected to increase, but the demand for soybean meal is in the off - season [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise at the end of the year, so soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas remains uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean futures price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short factors**: After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, China has started to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in some US soybean - growing areas is normal, with a neutral impact. In the next week, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import cost**: US soybeans are fluctuating strongly. With the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the import cost is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil mill crushing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, and the crushing volume of oil mills has declined from its high. The demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to remain low, with a bullish impact [9]. - **Trading volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has weakened, and the market trading volume is expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its high. As the upstream operating rate has dropped to a low level, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, with a bullish impact [9]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of global soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months It presents data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [22]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress It details the progress of US soybean planting, growth, and harvest in 2024 and 2025, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting rates, as well as the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [23][24][25][29]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress It shows the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, as well as the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 [26][28][30]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported soybean arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [37]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills has declined from its high, while the soybean meal inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills has declined from its high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [38][39]. - **Soybean meal trading**: The orders of domestic downstream buyers have decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume has declined from its high [45]. - **Pig farming inventory**: The pig inventory has continued to rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remains weak [47][49]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot discount [58]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly [60]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the price of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a high - level oscillation state, indicating that the soybean futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for new market guidance [66]. Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the rise in US soybean prices, the China - US trade negotiation agreement, and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in a short - term technical adjustment stage, and the market is waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [69]. 9. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most important**: The harvest weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second most important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].