Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market in the US is affected by the implementation of the Sino-US trade agreement and the weather in South American soybean - growing regions. The short - term trend is volatile, and the price is under pressure from the good weather in South American growing regions and the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases [10][11]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans, and the Sino - US trade agreement. It shows a narrow - range volatile pattern, with the price supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but suppressed by the increase in US soybean purchases and the increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the price of US soybeans, the supply of imported soybeans, and domestic demand. It is in a volatile pattern, with short - term demand improving but the inventory still at a relatively high level [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Tips No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean futures are volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The weather in South American soybean - growing regions is normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which supported the price of soybean meal. The price is affected by the US soybean price and the rebound in demand and has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear US soybean yield and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - **Negative factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; Brazilian soybeans have started to be planted, and under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Positive factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement leads to an increase in China's soybean purchases from the US; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply showed an overall upward trend, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [22]. - **USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months**: From May 2025 to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans changed slightly, and the ending inventory also fluctuated [23]. - **US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 were compared with those of the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons were presented [27][29][30][31]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio showed different trends [37]. - **Arrival volume of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 showed monthly fluctuations, and the arrival volume in December 2025 increased slightly compared with previous months [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 1. US Soybean Market Analysis - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The short - term trend of US soybeans is weakly volatile due to the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement. The bumper harvest of US soybeans and the good planting weather of Brazilian soybeans suppress the market. In general, the short - term weather variables in the Brazilian soybean - growing regions and the follow - up progress of the Sino - US trade agreement will affect the market [35]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is maintained, which is short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market is volatile in the short term, and the planting weather of South American soybeans and the follow - up implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement are still the biggest driving forces for the short - and medium - term trends of the market [35]. 2. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, and the year - on - year overall showed an increase [38]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [39][41]. - **Soybean meal transaction**: The downstream long - term stocking enthusiasm rebounded, and the market transaction is expected to rebound from a low level [9]. - **Pig - breeding inventory**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [48][50]. 3. Downstream Demand Analysis - The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which was affected by the improvement in domestic pig - breeding demand, but the overall price was still determined by the supply side [57]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures were weakly volatile, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium decreased slightly [60]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed slightly [62]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures were weakly volatile, affected by the interaction between the US soybean price and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price [67]. - The KDJ indicator dropped to a low level, and the short - term technical indicators entered a consolidation phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [67]. - The MACD oscillated and declined in the middle position, and the short - term entered a technical consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether the adjustment could continue. The soybean futures returned to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures oscillated and declined, affected by the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the short - term weak domestic demand [70]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a low level, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [70]. - The MACD oscillated and declined, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment and consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether it could continue to decline. The soybean meal futures returned to a volatile pattern recently, waiting for the US soybean price and new guidance [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Bean Meal**: The short - term outlook for domestic bean meal is to oscillate weakly under the influence of US soybeans. Although China's continued purchases of US soybeans support the short - term US soybean market, uncertainties in purchase volume and favorable South American soybean planting weather suppress the US soybean market. Additionally, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects domestic bean meal. The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The short - term US soybean market is affected by China's soybean purchases and South American planting weather. Domestic soybeans are influenced by the US soybean trend and domestic factors such as state - owned soybean rotation storage. The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content found. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. With normal planting and growth weather in South America, bean meal is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the increase in bean meal demand in December supports price expectations. The interaction between the US soybean trend and the increase in bean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, combined with the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, means that bean meal will likely oscillate in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the current bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3020, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium over the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week and a 44.18% increase from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium over the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week and a 47.57% increase from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - For bean meal, the short positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - For soybeans, the short positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed in [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by US soybean trends, short - term demand improvement, and spot price discounts, it may maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. Affected by US soybean trends, domestic - to - imported soybean price ratios, and domestic soybean production, it will be subject to the follow - up of Sino - US trade agreements and Brazilian soybean arrivals [11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term oscillation, influenced by US soybean trends, demand changes, and inventory levels [9]. - **Soybeans**: Short - term oscillation, affected by US soybean trends, domestic - to - imported soybean price ratios, and supply - demand factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will decline in December, while oil refinery soybean inventories will remain high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low expectations for pig restocking, but the recovery of soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish**: Preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, no pressure on domestic oil refinery soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish**: High volume of domestic imported soybean arrivals in December and expected high - yield South American soybeans [15]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - **Soybean Bearish**: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides data from 2015 - 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 are presented, covering harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not explicitly summarize position data but mentions that the main short positions in soybean meal have increased, and funds have flowed out; for soybeans, the main short positions have decreased, and funds have also flowed out [9][11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data from December 5 - 12, 2025, are provided, including prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices [19]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from December 3 - 12, 2025, are given, showing changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal [21]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: Progress data for the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2026 are presented [35][36][40][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data from May - December 2025 are provided, including planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [46]. - **US Soybean Weekly Export Inspections**: There has been a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease [47]. - **Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals**: Arrivals decreased from a high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [49]. - **Oil Refinery Operations**: High soybean inventory, high soybean meal inventory, increased unfulfilled contracts, high soybean crushing volume, and increased soybean meal production in September [50][52][54]. - **Pig Farming**: Pig inventory is rising, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly down month - on - month, pig prices are fluctuating slightly, piglet prices are weak, the proportion of large pigs is increasing, and pig - farming profits are fluctuating slightly [58][60][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the basis being positive, inventory increasing, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions decreasing and funds flowing out. In the short - term, it may show a weak oscillation pattern due to factors like the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases from the US and the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. 2.2 Soybean - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4200. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions increasing and funds flowing out. The domestic soybean price is affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The domestic arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level. The reduction of domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for bean meal in November [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remained relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Transaction Data - From December 2 to December 10, the trading volume of bean meal fluctuated, and the price also showed slight fluctuations. During this period, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and only on December 10, 0.6 tons were traded. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. 3.4.2 Price Data - From December 3 to December 10, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures fluctuated. The prices of soybean and bean meal spot were relatively stable, with bean meal futures oscillating downward and the spot discount narrowing slightly [19][24]. 3.4.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 1 to December 10, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and bean meal had different degrees of changes. For example, the bean - 1 warehouse receipts increased from 15,645 to 16,664, and the bean - 2 warehouse receipts changed from 4900 to 7100. The bean - meal warehouse receipts increased from 9450 to 23,830 and then remained stable [21]. 3.4.4 Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed to varying degrees, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 3.4.5 Sowing and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2023/24 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. Generally, the sowing progress was slightly faster than the same period last year but slightly slower than the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall sowing and growth progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][39]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting and harvesting progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting progress was slightly faster than the same period last year and close to the five - year average [42]. - **2025 US**: The harvesting progress of soybeans on September 21 was 9% [43]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: As of November 29, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 86%, compared with 90% in the same period last year and 84.4% of the five - year average [44]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: As of November 26, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 36%, compared with 37% in the same period last year and 45% of the five - year average [45]. 3.4.6 USDA Supply - Demand Report - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing volume of US soybeans changed to varying degrees. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in November was 1.75 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans was 0.485 billion tons [46]. 3.4.7 Other Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell to a low level, and the stocking demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the bean - meal output in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and rebounded following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [47][49][50]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with factors like uncertain Chinese purchases of US soybeans, South American soybean production expectations, and domestic demand and inventory conditions influencing the price [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The market is neutral, affected by factors such as Chinese soybean - purchasing policies, South American weather, and domestic soybean production and demand [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills dropped from a high in November. Affected by factors such as normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound oscillation influenced by US soybean trends and the off - season of demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by factors such as the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the preliminary China - US trade agreement, soybean meal will maintain range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in November [15]. - Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [16]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [16]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans [16]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years and periods is presented, including the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are provided, as well as the production data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Arrival Volume of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 is presented, showing that the arrival volume decreased from a high in November 2025 but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory and Production of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have dropped to a low level, and the demand for stockpiling has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has dropped from a high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [50][52][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and increased following US soybeans, and the on - market profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - **Pig - Breeding Situation**: The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit has decreased slightly [58][60][62][64]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and domestic demand [10]. - The soybean market will also experience short - term range - bound fluctuations, affected by the execution of the US - China trade agreement, imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the follow - up negotiation and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year increased, but domestic soybean meal demand is in the off - season [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal in November. However, the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is affected by the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation. In the short term, soybean meal is driven by US soybeans to oscillate strongly, and future trends await further guidance on US soybean production, South American soybean planting weather, and the follow - up of the US - China trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; with the start of soybean planting in Brazil, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports domestic soybean price expectations [16]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, China will increase its purchase of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the total consumption also increased steadily. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume also changed accordingly. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans also had some changes [23]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the excellent - good rate also changed over time [24][25][26]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2024/25 to 2025/26 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][31][32]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the total supply and total consumption also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [38]. Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November decreased from its high, with an overall year - on - year increase [39]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1100 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will remain range - bound in the short term. The M2605 contract will oscillate between 2700 and 2900 in the short term, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans will oscillate between 4000 and 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20]. 7. Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of oscillating consolidation, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [68]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in the execution of the US - China trade agreement, and weak domestic demand in the short term. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of technical adjustment, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [71]. 8. Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The planting weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas, the follow - up execution of the US - China trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [74]. - **Second - most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [75]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Although recent inventory has increased, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture's December report and monitor South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Due to the influence of weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low import expectations, the far - month contract is expected to maintain a bullish oscillation. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's December report and China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, there are positive factors such as delayed implementation of EU regulations and floods in Southeast Asia. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Domestic inventory is slightly lower than before but still higher than the five - year average. Follow the trend of palm oil and pay attention to South American soybean weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. With coastal oil mills shut down, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero imports in November, the fundamentals are strong, so a bullish approach is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. ICE market is expected to oscillate. In the domestic market, low - basis resources are decreasing, and cost support is strengthening. However, there are still constraints such as high inventory and hedging pressure. Consider buying on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating weakly. As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, the market will transition to a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude, but do not chase short positions excessively [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating weakly. In December, sample enterprises have a high enthusiasm for slaughter. With limited demand growth, it is difficult to support prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the near - month 01 contract, and the 03 contract is also bearish. Look for short - term long - buying opportunities for the 09 and 11 contracts after the selling pressure is released [1][18]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733960 tons, up 18970 tons week - on - week; and soybean meal inventory was 120320 tons, up 5170 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3114.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or 0.05% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2497.89 yuan/ton, down 9.48 yuan or 0.38% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8730 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8818 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 0.86% [7]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and rainfall in late November was unfavorable for harvesting; in India, new cotton is being listed, and rainfall in late November affected MSP procurement; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is almost finished, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased, and downstream demand has shown some resilience [12]. Red Dates - **Supply**: New dates are being harvested, and the expected new - season output is 500000 - 600000 tons. The purchase price has remained stable recently [15]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day. The spot price in some areas has remained unchanged [14]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure may still be large, but the long - term supply may gradually decrease as the number of fertile sows decreases [17]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 11490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or 1.64% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, but cautious about chasing long positions, focus on the US agricultural December report and South American soybean planting weather [1][3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, be cautious about chasing long positions in the main contract, pay attention to the US agricultural December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6] - Palm oil: Expected to stop falling in stages, be cautious about chasing long positions, pay attention to position and risk control [1][7] - Soybean oil: Short - term bullish oscillation, pay attention to South American soybean weather, treat it as a range market this week [1] - Rapeseed oil: Short - term bullish, take a bullish approach, be cautious about short - selling [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term moderate recovery opportunities [1][11] - Red dates: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 7339600 tons, up 189700 tons week - on - week; bean meal inventory was 1203200 tons, up 51700 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; national average spot price was 3116.57 yuan/ton, down 6.86 yuan or - 0.22% [2] - **Market Outlook**: Before the release of the US agricultural December report, it maintains a short - term bullish oscillation pattern, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3] Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons; unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; national average spot price was 2507.37 yuan/ton, down 12.1 yuan or - 0.48% [4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by weather premium speculation in the bean meal sector and low import expectations, the far - month rapeseed meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation [1][6] Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [7] - **Export and Production**: In November 2025 in Malaysia, different institutions' data showed a decline in palm oil exports, and the production decreased slightly [7] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price rebounded and closed up yesterday, but there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, so be cautious about chasing long positions [1][7] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion; in India, new cotton is on the market, and MSP purchases are affected by rain; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing is 73.87% complete, and non - main产区 starts sowing 2026 new cotton [9] - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, public inspection is over half, sales are fast, cost support is strengthened, but there is high inventory pressure [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term opportunities [1][11] Red Dates - **Supply**: New jujubes are on the market, and the expected production is 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation [13] - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10848 tons, up 518 tons week - on - week [13] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter increases, and the overall supply pressure is large [15][16] - **Demand**: Downstream slaughter increases, cold storage passively stocks up, and social retail catering consumption improves slightly [15] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The preliminary agreement in the China-US trade negotiation has a short - term positive impact on US soybeans, but the subsequent negotiation and weather in the US soybean - growing areas remain uncertain. US soybeans are expected to fluctuate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets will also be affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volumes, and downstream demand [13][34]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern. The short - term demand is in the off - season, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. - The price of domestic soybeans is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic demand, and the expected increase in domestic production. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the market focusing on the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Prompt There is no specific content provided for the weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for the harvest situation and the planting weather in South America, as well as the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year is expected to increase, but the demand for soybean meal is in the off - season [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise at the end of the year, so soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas remains uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean futures price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short factors**: After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, China has started to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in some US soybean - growing areas is normal, with a neutral impact. In the next week, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import cost**: US soybeans are fluctuating strongly. With the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the import cost is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil mill crushing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, and the crushing volume of oil mills has declined from its high. The demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to remain low, with a bullish impact [9]. - **Trading volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has weakened, and the market trading volume is expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its high. As the upstream operating rate has dropped to a low level, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, with a bullish impact [9]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of global soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months It presents data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [22]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress It details the progress of US soybean planting, growth, and harvest in 2024 and 2025, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting rates, as well as the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [23][24][25][29]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress It shows the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, as well as the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 [26][28][30]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported soybean arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [37]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills has declined from its high, while the soybean meal inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills has declined from its high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [38][39]. - **Soybean meal trading**: The orders of domestic downstream buyers have decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume has declined from its high [45]. - **Pig farming inventory**: The pig inventory has continued to rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remains weak [47][49]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot discount [58]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly [60]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the price of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a high - level oscillation state, indicating that the soybean futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for new market guidance [66]. Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the rise in US soybean prices, the China - US trade negotiation agreement, and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in a short - term technical adjustment stage, and the market is waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [69]. 9. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most important**: The harvest weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second most important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].