美国两党预算博弈
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逼近历史最长纪录!美政府“停摆”已超31天,特朗普急了:把规则废了!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 06:08
Core Points - The direct cause of the U.S. government "shutdown" is the Senate's failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before federal funds were exhausted [1] - The current Senate rules require a supermajority of 60 votes to advance most legislation, which has become a stumbling block for both Democrats and Republicans [1] - The Republican Party controls 53 seats in the Senate, meaning they need at least 7 Democratic votes to reach the necessary 60 votes [1] - Modifying Senate rules requires a two-thirds majority of those present, which translates to 67 votes if all 100 senators vote [1] - Former President Trump has suggested abolishing this rule, but even Republican leaders in the Senate have opposed this idea, emphasizing the importance of maintaining existing rules [1] - Republicans are particularly concerned that using the "nuclear option" could backfire if Democrats regain control of the Senate in the future [2] - Historically, government shutdowns have become a common result of budget negotiations between the two parties, with the longest shutdown occurring during Trump's previous term [2] - As of the report, the current shutdown has lasted over 31 days, with the House Speaker suggesting it may become the longest in U.S. history [3][6] - A recent poll indicated that 45% of Americans blame Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, while only 33% hold the Democrats responsible [8]
美政府或将走向史上最长“停摆”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 23:04
Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted for a month, with both Republican and Democratic parties in a deadlock, impacting various aspects of American life, economy, and government operations [1][2] - A recent poll indicates that 45% of Americans blame Trump and the Republican Party for the shutdown, while only 33% hold the Democratic Party responsible [1] - The current shutdown may become the longest in U.S. history, reflecting a failure of the political system to resolve budgetary disputes [2][3] Group 2 - The direct cause of the shutdown is the Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill before federal funds ran out, highlighting the increasing polarization and confrontation between the two parties [2] - Historically, government shutdowns have been a result of budgetary battles, with the current situation indicating a lack of willingness to negotiate and a focus on political gain [2][3] - The ongoing shutdown signals a dysfunction in government operations, with the potential for such shutdowns to become a new normal in U.S. politics [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [4] - Economic indicators show a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment, with inflation remaining high, which the Fed Chairman Powell noted could be impacted by the shutdown [4] - The Congressional Budget Office warned that the shutdown could result in economic losses ranging from $7 billion to $14 billion if it continues [4] Group 4 - The shutdown has severely affected air traffic control, leading to significant flight delays, with up to 53% of delays attributed to staff shortages, compared to an average of 5% before the shutdown [6] - Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 airport security personnel have been forced to work without pay, creating financial stress that could compromise safety [6] - The shutdown has broader implications for public services, with delays in housing assistance, medical services, and the closure of national parks, significantly impacting ordinary citizens [6]
两党对峙难破 美联邦政府"停摆"进入第三周
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-16 00:38
Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered its fifteenth day of a shutdown, marking the longest shutdown in nearly seven years, with no substantial progress in negotiations to restart the government [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to the Senate's failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before federal funds were exhausted, highlighting increasing political polarization and a lack of compromise between the two parties [2][3] - Public services are significantly impacted, with many federal employees furloughed and essential services halted, affecting vulnerable populations and international visitors [4][5] Group 1: Political Dynamics - The Senate has failed to pass the funding bill after eight votes, with the latest vote resulting in 49 in favor and 45 against, indicating a deepening political stalemate [2][3] - The ongoing political battle has led to public frustration, with nearly two-thirds of respondents in a recent poll believing the country is severely divided and unable to resolve its issues [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to reduce the annual GDP growth rate by approximately 0.1% for each week it continues, with previous shutdowns causing significant economic output losses [6][7] - The lack of federal operations has created a "data blind spot," delaying key economic reports and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [6][7] Group 3: Public Services and Social Assistance - Numerous public services have come to a halt, including the closure of museums and research centers, and disruptions in food assistance programs, which are struggling due to a lack of federal funding [5][6] - The shutdown has led to increased anxiety among military personnel and veterans regarding food security and financial obligations, indicating widespread societal impact [6][7]
两党对峙难破,美国联邦政府“停摆”进入第三周
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-16 00:00
Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, with no substantial progress in negotiations to restart the government, raising concerns about its impact on the economy and public services [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to the Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, highlighting the increasing polarization and gridlock between the two major political parties [2][3] - The ongoing shutdown has led to significant disruptions in public services, affecting vulnerable populations and causing widespread delays in transportation and other essential services [4][5] Group 1: Government Shutdown Dynamics - The shutdown is a result of the Senate's inability to pass a new funding bill before the government ran out of money, with the latest vote failing to meet the required threshold [2] - Political tensions are escalating, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse, and the White House using public messaging to highlight the duration of the shutdown [3] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times since 1974, often as a result of budgetary disputes between the two parties [3] Group 2: Impact on Public Services - The shutdown has caused significant delays in air traffic control, leading to thousands of flight delays across major airports due to staff shortages [4] - Federal employees are facing furloughs, with over 750,000 workers affected, and layoffs are being prepared in several federal agencies [4][5] - Public services, including museums and food assistance programs, are experiencing closures and funding shortages, impacting both domestic and international visitors [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The economic impact of the shutdown is becoming evident, with estimates suggesting a reduction of approximately 0.1% in annual GDP growth for each week the government remains shut down [6] - The shutdown is creating a "data blackout" for economic indicators, complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [6] - The situation is increasingly affecting consumer spending and overall economic sentiment, with potential long-term repercussions if the shutdown continues [6]
美国联邦政府“停摆”进入第三周(国际视点)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-15 22:22
Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its fifteenth day, marking the longest shutdown in nearly seven years, with no substantial progress in negotiations to restart the government [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to the Senate's failure to pass a new temporary funding bill before federal funds were exhausted, highlighting increasing political polarization and a lack of compromise between the Democratic and Republican parties [2][3] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions in public services, affecting vulnerable populations and international visitors, with many federal employees being furloughed or forced to work without pay [4][5] Group 1: Political Dynamics - The Senate has failed to pass the funding bill after eight votes, with the latest vote resulting in 49 in favor and 45 against, indicating a deepening political stalemate [2][3] - The ongoing political battle has escalated into a public relations war, with both parties blaming each other for the shutdown, and the White House using a countdown timer to highlight the duration of the shutdown [3] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times since 1974, often as a result of budgetary disputes between the two parties [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to negatively impact the U.S. economy, with estimates suggesting a reduction of approximately 0.1% in annual GDP growth for each week the government remains shut down [6][7] - The previous shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 resulted in a $11 billion loss in economic output, indicating the potential for significant economic repercussions if the current shutdown continues [6][7] - The shutdown has created a "data blind spot" for economic decision-making, as key federal agencies have paused operations, delaying important economic indicators and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [6][7] Group 3: Public Services Disruption - Numerous public services have been halted, with federal employees facing furloughs and layoffs, impacting essential services such as air traffic control and social assistance programs [4][5] - The Smithsonian Institution and other federally funded organizations have closed, affecting tourism and public access to cultural resources [5] - Food banks and social assistance programs are struggling due to a lack of federal support, with reports of significant funding shortfalls impacting their ability to serve communities in need [5][6]