阿根廷比索的命运，正成为米莱政府能否渡过危机的关键。 据彭博最新报道，华尔街分析师的共识是，阿根廷比索被严重高估，需要大幅贬值才能帮助米莱政府摆脱当前 困境。 巴克莱银行表示，阿根廷的实际有效汇率需要贬值多达30%才能刺激经济，StoneX和当地券商One618则认为比 索高估约20%。 One618的首席经济学家Juan Manuel Pazos指出，为了满足国际货币基金组织（IMF）今年早些时候批准的200亿 美元协议条款，即实现约100亿美元的年度经常账户盈余，比索兑美元的汇率需要达到1650至1700的水平，而周 一的收盘价为1408。StoneX的分析师Ramiro Blazquez也认为，1500至1600的比索兑美元汇率对阿根廷而言"更为 合理"。 强势比索：从抗通胀利器到经济拖累 强势比索与财政紧缩，曾是米莱用以稳定经济、驯服恶性通胀的两大支柱。这一策略在抑制通胀方面取得了显 著成效，该国年化通胀率已从一年前的超过200%降至目前的33.6%。 但这对于在关键选举前面临政治压力的米莱而言，是一个极具风险的选项。 尽管经济逻辑指向贬值，但政治现实却成为米莱政府面前的一道坎。市场普遍预计，在10月 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is hovering near historical lows, primarily due to increased tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods, which is shaking investor confidence and making the Rupee one of the riskiest currencies in Asia [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year, the Indian Rupee has depreciated over 3% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate dropping from approximately 85.95 to a record low of 88.35 [1] - Foreign institutional investors have sold off Indian assets worth over 1.03 trillion Rupees since July, contributing to the depreciation of the Rupee as the demand for dollars increases when these assets are sold [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the Rupee is making imported goods more expensive, particularly oil, which India relies on for 90% of its demand, leading to increased transportation costs and rising inflation [2] - Market sentiment towards the Indian Rupee remains bearish, with expectations that the exchange rate may continue to face pressure in the short term [2] - Some experts believe that the depreciation of the Rupee does not constitute an alarm, as the central bank is allowing a gradual decline to enhance export competitiveness and mitigate the impact of US trade tariffs [2]

由于货币贬值压力加剧以及股市高估值引发获利了结，外国投资者正以前所未有的速度撤离越南股市，导致该市场经历了有记录以来最大规模的 单月资金外流。 全球基金在8月份从越南股市净卖出价值15亿美元的本地股票，这是自2009年有数据记录以来的最大单月流出。此次大规模撤资正值越南盾兑美元 汇率跌至历史新低之际，部分分析师预测其将进一步走弱。 这一抛售潮给今年表现优于东南亚同行的越南股市带来了压力。越南基准的VN指数周三在结束为期两天的假期后恢复交易，一度下跌0.7%。货 币市场的悲观情绪也在延续，越南盾兑美元汇率当日再度走低。 胡志明市证券公司首席市场策略师Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen表示，"对不利汇率前景的担忧"是推动资金外流的原因之一，同时市场此前的大幅上涨 也引发了获利了结操作。 创纪录的资金外流下，汇率贬值压力加剧 在抛售发生前，越南股市经历了强劲上涨。受经济增长和潜在市场升级预期的推动，越南VN指数今年以来已飙升超过32%，表现优于多数东南亚 市场。然而，这场反弹也推高了市场估值，为外国投资者锁定利润、寻求退出创造了条件。 尽管外资大规模撤离，但市场并非全无支撑。SBB证券公司机构经纪业务主管 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency devaluation, highlighting that a country's competitiveness relies on real strength rather than currency manipulation [1] - The contrast in performance between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is notable, with the dollar index dropping 11% from above 109 to around 97, while the onshore yuan has appreciated over 1.8% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [1] - Historical evidence suggests that countries relying solely on devaluation to stimulate exports often fall into a vicious cycle of rising import costs and inflation, which ultimately diminishes purchasing power [1][2] Group 2 - China's commitment to not relying on devaluation for competitive advantage aligns with its transition towards high-quality development, focusing on industries like new energy vehicles and high-end equipment through R&D and industrial collaboration [2] - A stable exchange rate environment is essential for supporting imports, domestic demand, and technological exchanges, which are crucial for industrial upgrades in the context of the "dual circulation" development strategy [2] - The stability of the yuan is supported by strong domestic economic fundamentals, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter and a net inflow of approximately $100 billion in cross-border funds over five months [3]

伊朗与以色列之间的冲突持续升级，总台记者在土耳其和伊朗边境卡珀阔伊口岸发现，战火尚未直接波 及到边境，但汇率、通信、安保等方面已悄然发生变化，显露出冲突外溢影响。记者在口岸看到有四五 位换汇商，大多数已经拒收伊朗里亚尔。只有少数还在兑换，但他们也透露，随着冲突升级，里亚尔汇 率已贬值超过20%。(央视新闻) ...

今天a股成交6400亿，继续缩量，但是涨跌幅表现很好，中位数+2.55%，近4600只股票上涨。到了收盘的时候，证券媒体各种醒目标题，大奇迹日，超级 逆转，绝地大反击，看起来是久违的狂欢。 但我心里面其实是有些怀疑这些搞标题的编辑，自己本人到底有没有在炒股......涨完了也才2972点，这奇迹个der啊。成交量低迷成这个样子，除了少数还 在坚持做短线的，那些一路扛下来的股民对于今天回的这点血只有呵呵。 说来也奇怪，前两天官军日均百亿奋力护盘也止不住下跌，今天没咋买，反而就涨起来了。之前绵绵不绝的抛盘今天突然消失了，所以你们看就那么点买 盘也能把大盘抬起来。 …… 今天财经热搜头条是北京楼市进一步松绑，简单总结就是首套首付降到20%，利率降到3.5%，家里孩子多胎的二套算首套。另外二套、郊区的房子也顺势 跟进宽松，就不展开细表了。 这次政策没有惠及存量房贷，所以只是鼓励观望的需求下场，像我们这些被锁牢30年的老韭菜直接无视。至于优惠的力度只能说还行吧，无论是首付还是 利率，都和我2016年买房时的条件相当，我当时的房贷利率85折，后来跟着LPR下浮，现在就是3.5%左右。 限购还是没有取消，首都的架子还端着， ...