近期，日元和韩元深陷"贬值风暴"。 ◎记者 陈佳怡 2025年年末，全球外汇市场风云再起。亚洲货币走势显著分化，人民币汇率展现强劲反弹态势；日元与 韩元则深陷"贬值风暴"，对美元跌幅远超同期美元指数涨幅。 面对空前的货币贬值压力，日韩当局近期密集出手，通过口头警告、政策调整等多种方式打响"货币保 卫战"，力图稳定汇市。 日元和韩元陷"贬值风暴" 韩元的持续走弱则与外资撤离和强劲的海外投资需求相关。据韩国《中央日报》报道，韩国央行发布的 《金融稳定报告》显示，7月至10月，个人投资者净卖出国内股票23万亿韩元，同时净买入海外股票103 亿美元(约15.28万亿韩元)。若再计入个人对海外上市指数基金（ETF）的投资，可以认为散户对近期韩 元贬值产生了不小影响。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示，韩国国内投资者增持美股，叠加外国投资者在近期股价上涨后 纷纷抛售韩国股票，也部分加剧了韩元的贬值压力。 日韩当局密集出手救市 面对空前的货币贬值压力，日韩当局密集出手救市。 日本央行如期在12月加息25个基点至0.75%，这本该成为日元走强的催化剂，但却未能扭转日元汇率的 疲软。12月19日，在日本央行公布加息决定后，日 ...

当天，受卢比大幅贬值影响，印度主要股指Nifty 50指数跌破26000点，孟买证券交易所敏感指数早盘交 易下跌近200点。 一些市场分析人士认为，印度和美国贸易谈判的不确定性是卢比汇率承压的重要原因。美国对印度产品 征收的关税税率累计高达50%，而双方贸易谈判进展缓慢。此外，印度央行未采取措施维持汇率，加剧 了市场对卢比贬值的担忧。 新华社新德里12月3日电 印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创历史新低。 当地媒体称，印度的石油、电子产品、化肥等依赖进口。卢比疲软或进一步推高相关商品价格，影响印 度民众生活。（完） ...

"若印度无法达成贸易协议，那么美元/卢比可能在12月底前攻破90关口，" IDFC First Bank首席经济学 家Gaura Sen Gupta表示。 法国农业信贷银行外汇策略师David Forrester称，目前来看，央行可能允许卢比进一步小幅走弱，以增 强其出口竞争力，应对美国的关税。 卢比汇率今年已贬值4.8%，使之成为亚洲表现最差的货币。卢比持续走软可能会吓退外国投资者—— 他们今年已从印股撤资160亿美元，并可能加剧这个燃料进口国的通胀压力。 尽管印度央行已加大美元抛售力度以平抑市场波动，但分析师指出，若贸易协议不能达成，该行可能不 愿动用过多外汇储备来阻止卢比跌破90关口。与10月在89关口附近为支撑本币而进行的大规模美元抛售 相比，印度央行近几周的干预行动显得零零星星。 "如果高关税持续，我认为印度央行对90关口的捍卫力度不会很有力，"澳新银行外汇策略师Dhiraj Nim 称。他已调整预测，料卢比汇率到2026年第一季度将持续跌破90关口。 印度卢比今年来屡创新低，一些分析师警告，如果与美国的关键贸易协议不能尽快达成，卢比兑美元可 能会跌至重要心理关口90。 卢比兑美元周二触及纪录新低8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has fallen below 155 against the US dollar for the first time since February, is primarily driven by the lack of commitment to interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan amid a new economic stimulus plan proposed by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Currency Impact - The meeting between Prime Minister Kishi Sanae and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo did not yield any signals for interest rate hikes, leading to a significant drop in the yen's value [3][5]. - Kishi's economic stimulus plan of 14 trillion yen aims to increase spending and printing money, which conflicts with the need for interest rate increases to stabilize the currency [6][11]. - The yen's depreciation is exacerbated by global investors favoring the US dollar, especially after the US government resolved a budget crisis, prompting a sell-off of the yen [7][11]. Group 2: Impact on Businesses and Consumers - Export-oriented companies like Toyota and Sony benefit from the weaker yen, as it increases their profits when converting foreign sales back to yen [9][10]. - Conversely, ordinary Japanese consumers face rising prices for imported goods, with significant increases in the cost of essentials like beef and gasoline due to the yen's depreciation [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling with increased costs for imported materials, leading to potential layoffs and price hikes that ultimately affect consumers [10][11]. Group 3: Central Bank's Dilemma - The Bank of Japan is caught in a difficult position, needing to balance between not raising interest rates to support economic growth and the pressure of rising inflation and a depreciating currency [11][13]. - Internal disagreements within the Bank of Japan highlight the urgency for action, with some members advocating for immediate interest rate hikes to combat inflation [11][13]. - The upcoming December meeting of the Bank of Japan is critical, as it will determine the future direction of monetary policy and its impact on the economy and the yen [11][13].

Core Insights - The fate of the Argentine peso is crucial for the Milei government's ability to navigate the current crisis, with consensus among Wall Street analysts indicating that the peso is significantly overvalued and requires a substantial devaluation to aid the government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays Bank suggests that the real effective exchange rate of the Argentine peso needs to depreciate by up to 30% to stimulate the economy, while StoneX and local broker One618 estimate the peso is overvalued by about 20% [1]. - One618's chief economist, Juan Manuel Pazos, states that to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) terms for a $20 billion agreement, the peso must reach an exchange rate of 1650 to 1700 against the dollar, compared to the recent closing price of 1408 [1]. - StoneX analyst Ramiro Blazquez believes a peso to dollar exchange rate of 1500 to 1600 is more reasonable for Argentina [1]. Group 2: Political Challenges - The Milei government faces significant political pressure, making it unlikely to allow a substantial weakening of the peso before the critical midterm elections in October, especially after recent local election losses [2]. - Following the unexpected defeat in local elections, investor confidence in the Milei government has wavered, leading to a sell-off of the Argentine peso [2]. - The Argentine central bank reportedly sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Impact - The strong peso, along with fiscal tightening, was initially used by the Milei government to stabilize the economy and combat hyperinflation, successfully reducing the annual inflation rate from over 200% a year ago to 33.6% currently [4]. - However, analysts indicate that the degree of overvaluation of the peso is increasing, causing concerns in a country with a history of long-term devaluation and defaults [5]. - The high valuation of the peso has led many Argentinians to shop abroad, and even local meat processors are importing beef, as it is more cost-effective than using local products [5]. Group 4: External Support - Amid market instability, the Milei government received support from the Trump administration, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin promising "all stabilization options" for Argentina, which led to a rise in Argentine assets and a 3.8% increase in the peso [6]. - However, this external support may complicate the situation, as it could exacerbate the overvaluation issue rather than alleviate it, making it harder to achieve the goal of currency recalibration [6]. - Further details are expected to emerge following a meeting between Milei and U.S. President Trump in New York [6].

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is hovering near historical lows, primarily due to increased tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods, which is shaking investor confidence and making the Rupee one of the riskiest currencies in Asia [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year, the Indian Rupee has depreciated over 3% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate dropping from approximately 85.95 to a record low of 88.35 [1] - Foreign institutional investors have sold off Indian assets worth over 1.03 trillion Rupees since July, contributing to the depreciation of the Rupee as the demand for dollars increases when these assets are sold [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the Rupee is making imported goods more expensive, particularly oil, which India relies on for 90% of its demand, leading to increased transportation costs and rising inflation [2] - Market sentiment towards the Indian Rupee remains bearish, with expectations that the exchange rate may continue to face pressure in the short term [2] - Some experts believe that the depreciation of the Rupee does not constitute an alarm, as the central bank is allowing a gradual decline to enhance export competitiveness and mitigate the impact of US trade tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The core issue is the unprecedented capital outflow from the Vietnamese stock market, with foreign investors selling local stocks worth $1.5 billion in August, marking the largest monthly outflow since records began in 2009 [1][4] - Concerns over unfavorable exchange rate prospects and profit-taking from previous market gains are driving the capital outflow [3][4] - The Vietnamese dong has depreciated approximately 3.4% against the US dollar this year, making it the worst-performing currency in Southeast Asia, with further depreciation expected due to rising import demand and a narrowing current account surplus [4][7] Group 2 - Despite the significant foreign capital withdrawal, the Vietnamese stock market is supported by resilient domestic capital flows and improving corporate earnings, which may help cushion the impact of foreign outflows [7] - The VN index has surged over 32% this year, outperforming most Southeast Asian markets, but this rebound has also led to higher market valuations, prompting foreign investors to lock in profits [7] - Notably, a substantial portion of the capital outflow is concentrated in key stocks, such as Vingroup, which saw a net outflow of approximately 49.3 million USD [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency devaluation, highlighting that a country's competitiveness relies on real strength rather than currency manipulation [1] - The contrast in performance between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is notable, with the dollar index dropping 11% from above 109 to around 97, while the onshore yuan has appreciated over 1.8% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [1] - Historical evidence suggests that countries relying solely on devaluation to stimulate exports often fall into a vicious cycle of rising import costs and inflation, which ultimately diminishes purchasing power [1][2] Group 2 - China's commitment to not relying on devaluation for competitive advantage aligns with its transition towards high-quality development, focusing on industries like new energy vehicles and high-end equipment through R&D and industrial collaboration [2] - A stable exchange rate environment is essential for supporting imports, domestic demand, and technological exchanges, which are crucial for industrial upgrades in the context of the "dual circulation" development strategy [2] - The stability of the yuan is supported by strong domestic economic fundamentals, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter and a net inflow of approximately $100 billion in cross-border funds over five months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Iran and Israel is escalating, leading to noticeable changes in currency exchange, communication, and security at the border areas, indicating the spillover effects of the conflict [1] Currency Impact - Currency exchange merchants at the Kapikoy border have started to refuse Iranian rials, with only a few still exchanging them [1] - The Iranian rial has depreciated by over 20% as the conflict intensifies [1]

今天a股成交6400亿，继续缩量，但是涨跌幅表现很好，中位数+2.55%，近4600只股票上涨。到了收盘的时候，证券媒体各种醒目标题，大奇迹日，超级 逆转，绝地大反击，看起来是久违的狂欢。 但我心里面其实是有些怀疑这些搞标题的编辑，自己本人到底有没有在炒股......涨完了也才2972点，这奇迹个der啊。成交量低迷成这个样子，除了少数还 在坚持做短线的，那些一路扛下来的股民对于今天回的这点血只有呵呵。 说来也奇怪，前两天官军日均百亿奋力护盘也止不住下跌，今天没咋买，反而就涨起来了。之前绵绵不绝的抛盘今天突然消失了，所以你们看就那么点买 盘也能把大盘抬起来。 …… 今天财经热搜头条是北京楼市进一步松绑，简单总结就是首套首付降到20%，利率降到3.5%，家里孩子多胎的二套算首套。另外二套、郊区的房子也顺势 跟进宽松，就不展开细表了。 这次政策没有惠及存量房贷，所以只是鼓励观望的需求下场，像我们这些被锁牢30年的老韭菜直接无视。至于优惠的力度只能说还行吧，无论是首付还是 利率，都和我2016年买房时的条件相当，我当时的房贷利率85折，后来跟着LPR下浮，现在就是3.5%左右。 限购还是没有取消，首都的架子还端着， ...