Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Trends - The manufacturing sector in China is showing positive signs, with the June PMI at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating a recovery in both production and new orders [1] - The manufacturing demand for steel is expected to increase as more policies are implemented to stabilize and boost the economy, including the issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Global Economic Conditions - There is a widespread optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of three rate cuts in the second half of the year, which could enhance global liquidity and improve steel export conditions for China [2] - The depreciation of the US dollar is significant, with the dollar index dropping below 96.50, raising concerns about the dollar's future and potentially leading to increased demand for steel in developing countries [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Real Estate Market - The trade relationship between China and the US is expected to improve, reducing the intensity of the tariff war, which could positively impact China's steel market [4] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing housing sales, which will likely boost steel demand [5]

市场没有什么不可能，再完美的预测体系都是不完美的，因为预测本身就不完美，因为市场最大的魔力就在于它的不可预测性。尤其对于买方来说，重要 的不是用分析框架体系去预测市场，而是用投资策略体系去应对市场。 ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250107— Fake News， Fake Xiaodao News（-央行监管约谈小作文-汇率贬值压力-股市小幅上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 今天债市情绪偏弱，一方面源于监管小作文，另一方面还是汇率压力终于走入视野。彭博消息称："中国央行据报道将于1月新增发行离岸人民币(CNH)央 票，周二CNH隔夜Hibor利率跳涨至8.1%，创2021年6月来新高。"央妈已经陆续拿出了逆周期因子、离岸央票以及隔夜掉期点等工具，如果央妈开始关注 汇率，那债农们短期内真的要小心一些了。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 07) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | ...

今天a股成交6400亿，继续缩量，但是涨跌幅表现很好，中位数+2.55%，近4600只股票上涨。到了收盘的时候，证券媒体各种醒目标题，大奇迹日，超级 逆转，绝地大反击，看起来是久违的狂欢。 但我心里面其实是有些怀疑这些搞标题的编辑，自己本人到底有没有在炒股......涨完了也才2972点，这奇迹个der啊。成交量低迷成这个样子，除了少数还 在坚持做短线的，那些一路扛下来的股民对于今天回的这点血只有呵呵。 说来也奇怪，前两天官军日均百亿奋力护盘也止不住下跌，今天没咋买，反而就涨起来了。之前绵绵不绝的抛盘今天突然消失了，所以你们看就那么点买 盘也能把大盘抬起来。 …… 今天财经热搜头条是北京楼市进一步松绑，简单总结就是首套首付降到20%，利率降到3.5%，家里孩子多胎的二套算首套。另外二套、郊区的房子也顺势 跟进宽松，就不展开细表了。 这次政策没有惠及存量房贷，所以只是鼓励观望的需求下场，像我们这些被锁牢30年的老韭菜直接无视。至于优惠的力度只能说还行吧，无论是首付还是 利率，都和我2016年买房时的条件相当，我当时的房贷利率85折，后来跟着LPR下浮，现在就是3.5%左右。 限购还是没有取消，首都的架子还端着， ...