美国大豆种植天气影响

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大越期货豆粕早报-20250718
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate between 3000 and 3060. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, and the A2509 contract of soybean is expected to move between 4160 and 4260 [8][10]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybean meal, and on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybeans [13][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4160 - 4260. The soybean meal market is neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a positive situation in the main position, and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, with a neutral overall situation [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have rebounded from low levels. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [30]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: presents the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) [32][33][37][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: shows the harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded week - on - week but declined year - on - year [41]. - The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills have continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the futures profit of imported soybeans have both fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows have increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remains weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has increased slightly [56]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [58].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250623
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:27
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is fluctuating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern, affected by the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to be range - bound, with the bottom supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the upward space is limited by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations have reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to fluctuate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, as well as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, have kept the soybean meal market volatile in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Multi - empty Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 11 to June 20, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed a certain degree of change [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 12 to June 20, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount slightly increased [17][22]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From June 10 to June 20, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal showed a decreasing trend [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, etc. in different periods from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is provided [32][33][37]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show the changes in soybean harvest area, yield, production, inventory, etc. [40]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].
大越期货豆粕早报2025-06-13-20250613
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report For Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations are the main factors affecting the market. Although the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is variable, the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the recent good planting weather in the US limit the upside of the US soybean price. Additionally, the increasing arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China restricts the rebound of the domestic soybean meal price [8]. For Soybeans - The domestic soybean market is also affected by multiple factors. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor, while the abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the price rebound [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The domestic soybean meal and soybean markets are both in a state of shock, affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volume, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, the good recent planting weather in the US led to a short - term decline after the US soybean futures rose. The market is waiting for further news on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets are in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profit led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: the total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the abundant harvest of South American soybeans is expected to continue [13]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the price floor of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal was 382,500 tons, an increase of 28.36% from last week's 298,000 tons and a decrease of 65.19% compared with the same period last year. The oil - mill soybean inventory continued to rise [8][43]. - **Price**: The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2850, with a basis of - 199, indicating a discount to the futures. The price of soybean meal futures was oscillating strongly, while the spot price was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount slightly widened. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market continued to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remained oscillating [8][22][27]. - **Supply and demand**: The domestic purchase of soybean meal by downstream enterprises decreased from a high level, but the pick - up volume remained good. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [25][46]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players in the soybean meal market increased, and the funds flowed in [8].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250611
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is affected by the start of Sino - US tariff negotiations and technical consolidation. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and import arrivals, as well as the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, import arrivals, and weather conditions, and are likely to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][10][12]. - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220 [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the US soybean market hit a high. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, import arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, but soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectations. With the reduced pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories remain low, and the strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories; uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative factors**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in June; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - **Positive factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [14]. - **Negative factors**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans, which suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2830, with a basis of - 201, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventories are 38.25 tons, a 28.36% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil - mill soybean inventories are 610.29 tons, a 4.7% increase from last week and a 24.7% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downwards. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2015 to 2024 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2015 to 2024 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data from November 2024 to May 2025 shows changes in harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40].