据21世纪经济报道，尽管黄金短期承压，但不少机构仍看好其长期涨势。瑞银预计，今年年底金价或达3500美元/盎司，若出现避险上行情景，有望升至 3800美元/盎司。 黄金一旦开启涨势，走势往往十分凌厉。 5月20日，现货黄金涨幅达1.86%，收盘报3289.29美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨1.83%，收于3292.60美元/盎司。5月21日上午9点左右，现货黄金价格突破 3300美元/盎司关口，为5月9日以来首次。截至发稿，现货黄金价格报3306.84美元/盎司。 金价上涨主要源于美元进一步走弱，以及美国关税政策、俄乌停火局势的不确定性。周二美元再度疲软，受美联储对经济前景持谨慎态度影响。此前，穆迪 上周下调美国主权信用评级，致使美元周一遭大幅抛售。美元走弱，降低了其他货币计价买家购买黄金的成本。 在地缘政治与经济形势不明朗时，黄金被视为避险资产。 百利好特约分析师指出，目前关注黄金的关键在于货币政策方向，若预计货币政策将继续宽松，将对黄金形成支撑。 重要声明：上述内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。 从长期看，驱动黄金走势的关键因素是美元和美国实际利率，这对瑞银的黄金展望极为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market is driven by various factors, including U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective in the face of short-term fluctuations [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold serves as both a safe-haven asset and a barometer for the U.S. dollar, with recent price movements reflecting the tug-of-war between positive U.S. economic indicators and concerns over financial stability [3]. - Strong employment data in the U.S. raised expectations for continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a temporary decline in gold prices due to increased opportunity costs associated with holding gold [3]. - Subsequent concerns about the U.S. banking system and ongoing geopolitical issues in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe reignited demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing price fluctuations [3]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The current economic environment remains uncertain, with debates over whether the global economy is experiencing a "soft landing" or a "hard landing," making gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty particularly relevant [4]. - Historically, gold prices tend to rise as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its interest rate hike cycles, suggesting potential long-term investment opportunities in gold [4]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on two key factors: the trajectory of U.S. real interest rates, which influences gold's mid-term valuation, and the evolving global geopolitical and economic landscape, which affects long-term demand for gold [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global demand for gold is projected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven primarily by central bank purchases and investment demand, despite a slight decrease in central bank purchases compared to previous years [2][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Since 2022, central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, primarily led by emerging market central banks, with purchases doubling from around 500 tons to over 1,000 tons, contributing to a rise in gold prices [4][5]. - The increase in gold purchases is not uniform across all central banks; emerging markets like Poland, Turkey, China, Egypt, and India have been the main buyers, while some developed countries have sold gold [7]. - In 2024, central bank purchases are expected to slightly decrease but remain above 1,000 tons, influenced by various factors including market conditions and gold prices [8][16]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold investment demand is negatively correlated with U.S. real interest rates; lower real rates typically lead to higher investment in gold [9][10]. - After a peak in 2020, gold investment demand fell significantly due to rising real interest rates, but is expected to see a slight rebound in 2024 as the Federal Reserve signals a shift towards lower rates [13][18]. - Investment demand varies by region, with Asian markets showing net inflows into gold ETFs, while European and North American markets have experienced outflows [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Central bank purchases may slow down in the short term but are expected to remain in a long-term net buying cycle, influenced by geopolitical risks and market conditions [16][17]. - Investment demand is unlikely to see a significant rebound due to potential inflationary pressures from U.S. policies and high gold prices, which may suppress demand [18][19]. - Overall, while gold demand may not exceed 2024 levels, it is expected to remain high, with prices experiencing volatility but maintaining a long-term bullish trend [20][21].