在风险层出不穷的背景下，均值回归对黄金有利：美联储政策、实际利率与通胀均深陷不确定性泥潭。 与此同时，其他贵金属也正迎头赶上。 与通胀无关，而与不确定性有关 全球各国央行正纷纷抛售美元、增持黄金。在美联储实施今年第三次降息之际，这一贵金属已成为美元风险上升背景下的终极"不确定性对冲工具"。 除非不确定性消退，否则涨势不会停止。以下是本文的重点预览： 黄金需求主要由对冲美元敞口的各国央行主导，这一需求帮助金价稳固在4000美元/盎司上方。 相较于历史水平，各国央行的黄金配置仍处于低配状态。非货币类投资者的低配情况则更为严重。 黄金走势图显示，在这场持续25年的牛市中，2022年起黄金价格开始显著加速上涨。背后的原因是什么？ 黄金处于长期牛市中 许多人认为黄金是通胀对冲工具，但它的最大涨幅出现在物价压力减弱之际。2020年年中至2022年年中通胀攀升期间，黄金价格基本持平。事实上， 金价对央行购金行为的敏感度要高得多。世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）最新月度报告显示，过去四年中，每年的前十个月，各国央行的购金 总额和净额均大幅增长。 这一转变始于2022年俄乌冲突爆发之后。大量外国企业撤离俄罗 ...

There are many reasons these days to look for a hedge against uncertainty. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market is driven by various factors, including U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective in the face of short-term fluctuations [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold serves as both a safe-haven asset and a barometer for the U.S. dollar, with recent price movements reflecting the tug-of-war between positive U.S. economic indicators and concerns over financial stability [3]. - Strong employment data in the U.S. raised expectations for continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a temporary decline in gold prices due to increased opportunity costs associated with holding gold [3]. - Subsequent concerns about the U.S. banking system and ongoing geopolitical issues in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe reignited demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing price fluctuations [3]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The current economic environment remains uncertain, with debates over whether the global economy is experiencing a "soft landing" or a "hard landing," making gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty particularly relevant [4]. - Historically, gold prices tend to rise as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its interest rate hike cycles, suggesting potential long-term investment opportunities in gold [4]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on two key factors: the trajectory of U.S. real interest rates, which influences gold's mid-term valuation, and the evolving global geopolitical and economic landscape, which affects long-term demand for gold [4].