摘要 2024-2025年，美国"房地产链"整体处于下行周期。2026年，在地产销售企稳和美联储持续降息的背景 下，美国房地产市场能否迎来复苏、弹性几何？ 一、热点思考：居者有其屋，昂贵的"美国梦" （一）美国房地产市场疲软的核心矛盾？居民购房成本处于历史高位，需求是"短板" 2025年以来，美国房贷利率累计回落80BP，但地产销售、投资表现仍低迷。 2025年以来，美国房贷利率 从7%左右至6.2%，回落幅度达80BP。但是，美国新屋销售——建设链条仍处于走弱趋势中；2024 年下 半年至今，地产投资对美国经济增速的平均贡献为负，形成拖累。 当前，美国地产市场的核心矛盾在于需求不足，供给短缺位居其次。 2024年以来，美国房贷利率见顶回 落，居民售房意愿逐步改善，但购房需求持续疲软，导致地产市场转变为"买方市场"；另一方面，虽然 活跃住房挂牌量仍低于疫情之前，但成屋、新屋库存月数均已超过疫情前水平。 美国住房可负担性处于历史低位，是购房需求低迷的核心要素。 美国居民购房成本月均3060美元，占家 庭收入比重达43.2%，远超每月2227美元的租房成本，主因房价和房贷利率均处于历史高位。若要让购房 成本回落至 ...

（一）美国房地产市场疲软的核心矛盾？居民购房成本处于历史高位，需求是"短板" 2025年以来，美国房贷利率累计回落80BP，但地产销售、投资表现仍低迷。 2025年以来，美国房贷利率 从7%左右至6.2%，回落幅度达80BP。但是，美国新屋销售——建设链条仍处于走弱趋势中；2024 年下 半年至今，地产投资对美国经济增速的平均贡献为负，形成拖累。 当前，美国地产市场的核心矛盾在于需求不足，供给短缺位居其次。 2024年以来，美国房贷利率见顶回 落，居民售房意愿逐步改善，但购房需求持续疲软，导致地产市场转变为"买方市场"；另一方面，虽然 活跃住房挂牌量仍低于疫情之前，但成屋、新屋库存月数均已超过疫情前水平。 摘要 2024-2025年，美国"房地产链"整体处于下行周期。2026年，在地产销售企稳和美联储持续降息的背景 下，美国房地产市场能否迎来复苏、弹性几何？ 一、热点思考：居者有其屋，昂贵的"美国梦" 特朗普"地产新政"或仅具有象征意义，较难弥补需求侧的短板。 1）美国仅有1%的住宅是被大型机构投 资者购买的；2）根据测算，2000亿美元MBS购买对房贷利差的抑制效果可能不到10BP；3）建筑成本高 昂、"缺 ...

Core Thesis - Opendoor Technologies Inc. is positioned as a significant player in the U.S. housing market, especially after competitors like Zillow and Redfin exited the iBuyer space, with the stock trading at $5.96 as of September 4th [1][2] Macro Environment - The U.S. housing market is experiencing extreme interest rate volatility, leading to a stagnation in housing transactions, with existing home sales near Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows despite demographic trends favoring demand [2] - There is pent-up demand due to homeowners being locked into low mortgage rates from the pandemic, which could benefit Opendoor as mortgage rates decline [2] Business Performance - Opendoor has stabilized its operations after a $7 billion cash burn, now selling approximately 4,000 homes per quarter with contribution profits of around $15,000 per unit [3] - If Opendoor captures 5% of the U.S. existing home market, it could potentially generate $2 billion in after-tax profits, suggesting a valuation of $30 billion compared to its current valuation of about $2 billion [3] Management and Market Sentiment - Recent earnings reports indicate revenue growth and positive EBITDA, although management has expressed caution regarding housing market weaknesses [3] - The resignation of CEO Carrie Wheeler reflects tensions between management and retail investors seeking a more aggressive growth narrative, which could lead to volatility [4] Historical Context - A previous bullish thesis highlighted Opendoor's agent partnership model and disciplined operations, with the stock appreciating approximately 583% since then, indicating resilience and confidence in the company [5] Hedge Fund Interest - As of the end of the first quarter, 21 hedge fund portfolios held Opendoor shares, a decrease from 23 in the previous quarter, suggesting a cautious sentiment among institutional investors [6]

Exhibition Overview - The International Builders' Show (IBS) is one of the most influential events in the construction industry, organized by the National Association of Home Builders, which has 200,000 member units [1] - The 2025 IBS in Las Vegas attracted over 1,300 exhibitors from 29 countries, covering a net area of more than 45,000 square meters and welcoming over 60,000 attendees from various sectors [1] - The 2026 IBS will be held in Orlando, Florida, aiming to better serve exhibitors and attendees while showcasing the latest technologies and materials in the building materials industry [2] Market Analysis - According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. goods trade deficit increased by 1.0% in the first nine months of 2015, with total imports at $1,684.3 billion and exports at $1,133.3 billion [3] - The U.S. construction materials industry is experiencing a strong recovery, driven by the rebound in the real estate market, with particular attention on home decoration materials and cement [3] - The ongoing recovery in the U.S. real estate market is expected to continue, supported by favorable factors such as a recovering job market, which will stimulate sales of building materials [3] Exhibition Scope - The exhibition will cover a wide range of categories including construction machinery, building materials, sanitary ware, and home automation products [4][5] - Specific categories include construction machinery, doors, windows, glass, cement, insulation materials, and various home appliances [4][5]