Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that the threat to the bond market from debt has surpassed that of tariffs, with rising concerns among bond traders regarding the U.S. government's debt levels [1] - John Waldron, President of Goldman Sachs, emphasizes that the macro-level risk is shifting from tariffs to the implications of tax cuts and fiscal conditions, which are increasingly alarming [1] - The increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is pushing up interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, making government debt more expensive and raising the risk of a growing deficit and higher borrowing costs for the economy [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields coincides with intense bipartisan negotiations in Congress over a significant tax cut bill proposed during Trump's second term, raising concerns about the worsening fiscal outlook for the U.S. [4] - The House passed a bill that extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and raises the debt ceiling, but it faces challenges in the Senate, where Republicans plan to make amendments [5] - Market participants are worried that the bill's measures could exacerbate the U.S. government's budget deficit, leading to greater pressure on the bond market [5] Group 3 - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, reflecting the impact of tax policies from Trump's first term and the debt explosion during the COVID-19 pandemic under both Trump and Biden [6] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget [5]