Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by optimistic expectations regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices have declined from a high of $3345 to around $3280, with significant support at the $3280 level, which has not yet been breached [1][3]. - The recent drop from $3345 to $3320 represents a $25 decrease, and a similar drop from $3310 to $3285 has occurred, indicating a consistent downward movement [3]. - The current price action suggests a potential for a rebound, with a focus on the support level between $3275 and $3280 [1][3]. Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying gold on dips around $3287-$3282 with a stop loss at $3275 and a target of $3310-$3320 [4]. - Additionally, selling gold on rebounds around $3315-$3320 is advised, with a stop loss at $3328 and a target of $3300-$3290 [4].

Group 1 - The expectation of rising oil prices is leading to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 2 to 6 basis points across various maturities, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 3.97% as traders reduce bets on Fed easing [1] - The bond market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged, but the market is focused on the quarterly economic and interest rate forecast report [1] Group 2 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with historical data suggesting that such sell-off pressures may have lasting effects [2] - Initial spikes in oil prices due to the conflict have receded, with WTI crude oil prices dropping by as much as 4.9% before settling at a 2.3% decline [2] - Concerns over market volatility are rising, with implications for both risk assets and interest rate assets as implied volatility increases [2] Group 3 - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury auction showed stronger-than-expected demand, while the 20-year auction was relatively lackluster, with a yield of 4.942% aligning with expectations [3] - The pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve may increase due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to consider higher military spending [3] - The recent auction alleviated some risks associated with holding long-term assets, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to significant market movements ahead of the Fed's policy announcement [3]

Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is facing challenges as 30-year Treasury yields approach 5%, driven by concerns over President Trump's tariff policies and disappointing ISM manufacturing data [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose over 6 basis points to nearly 4.47%, while the price of 30-year Treasuries briefly surpassed 5% [1] - Long-term bonds are under pressure, with the yield curve steepening and the gap between 5-year and 30-year yields narrowing to just below 100 basis points, the lowest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Large bond investors are maintaining low positions in long-term bonds, preferring shorter-term securities, as indicated by BlackRock's research [4] - The weak performance of long-term bonds has led to the 20-year Treasury yield falling below that of the 30-year yield, a situation not seen in four years [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and potential trade measures by the President is contributing to the lack of interest in long-term Treasuries [4] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing stagnation in buying activity, with upcoming labor market reports expected to significantly impact Treasury yields and Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks [5] - Market participants anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, a revision from previous expectations of three cuts [5] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a cautious approach to interest rate decisions, depending on the resolution of trade policy uncertainties [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that the threat to the bond market from debt has surpassed that of tariffs, with rising concerns among bond traders regarding the U.S. government's debt levels [1] - John Waldron, President of Goldman Sachs, emphasizes that the macro-level risk is shifting from tariffs to the implications of tax cuts and fiscal conditions, which are increasingly alarming [1] - The increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is pushing up interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, making government debt more expensive and raising the risk of a growing deficit and higher borrowing costs for the economy [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields coincides with intense bipartisan negotiations in Congress over a significant tax cut bill proposed during Trump's second term, raising concerns about the worsening fiscal outlook for the U.S. [4] - The House passed a bill that extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and raises the debt ceiling, but it faces challenges in the Senate, where Republicans plan to make amendments [5] - Market participants are worried that the bill's measures could exacerbate the U.S. government's budget deficit, leading to greater pressure on the bond market [5] Group 3 - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, reflecting the impact of tax policies from Trump's first term and the debt explosion during the COVID-19 pandemic under both Trump and Biden [6] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget [5]

Group 1 - The core strategy from UBS and Goldman Sachs is to buy consumer stocks while shorting housing-related sectors due to rising bond yields and concerns over U.S. fiscal outlook [1] - UBS's basket of consumer stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 index, rising nearly 28% since April 8, compared to the S&P 500's 17% increase [2] - Concerns over rising bond yields have led to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with disappointing auction results pushing yields to levels seen during market turmoil in April [1][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reports that low-income consumer stocks have reached a new high, with the ratio of low-income consumer stocks to housing stocks at its highest level since November 2023 [2] - The average gasoline price is near a three-year low, providing low-income households with more disposable income for consumption [5] - UBS's basket of U.S. housing stocks has declined by 3.5% since mid-May due to rising yield concerns [5] Group 3 - Options traders are betting on continued consumer demand resilience, particularly for stocks showing upward momentum [8] - The cost of options protecting against a 10% decline in the consumer staples sector ETF has decreased, indicating investor confidence in the sector [8] - The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF's options ratio has surged to its highest level since February 2024, reflecting increased investor interest [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the U.S. economy, particularly the rising government borrowing costs and the implications of a potential increase in the national debt due to tax cuts and other fiscal policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Rising Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing a second wave of challenges following the resolution of tariff issues, with rising government borrowing costs becoming increasingly evident [1]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, causing yields to rise sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.089%, the highest since October 2023 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax cuts could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low unemployment economy [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Consumer Borrowing Costs - As Treasury yields rise, the government faces higher interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to increased taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high interest rate environment not only affects government finances but also impacts consumers, as borrowing costs for significant purchases like homes and cars are linked to long-term yields [4]. Group 3: Political Stance on Fiscal Policy - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make substantial fiscal adjustments, with Republican leaders arguing that the CBO's deficit projections are exaggerated [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no significant fiscal tightening in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5][6]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through efficiency measures have been scaled back, indicating a lack of urgency in tackling the growing debt [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].