司的就是国际这条线；马上追踪热点 秘闻背后的事；我给你说透 欢迎各位看官收看今天的【司马秘事】 文：司马秘事 编辑：司马秘事 最近金融圈出了件颠覆常识的事。 美联储从2024年9月开始降息，累计降了175个基点，按说美债收益率该跟着往下走，结果它反倒一个劲 往上冲。 10年期美债收益率涨到4.17%，30年期更是冲到4.82%，都快摸到9月以来的最高点了。 上周美债还遭遇8个月来最惨抛售，这种情况从上世纪90年代起就没见过，着实让市场看傻了眼。 美债反常降息越狠涨越疯 美债这波操作真的让人摸不清头脑，通常美联储降息，就是给市场放"宽松信号"，美债作为安全资产， 收益率会跟着下调。 但这次完全反过来，降息力度越大，收益率涨得越欢。 现在直接涨到3.2%，还下调了2026年的降息预期，估计明年也就再降两次。 更关键的是，美东时间近期还要拍卖390亿美元10年期美债和220亿美元30年期美债。 财政部特意调整了拍卖时间表，就是为了配合美联储的会议。 本来市场就够乱了，这波拍卖怕是又要让美债市场掀起一阵波澜。 分歧加剧美联储内部吵翻天 美债之所以这么反常，美联储内部的分歧绝对是重要原因。 10年期美债收益率直接关系到 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated interest rate cut, Wall Street experienced a "sell the fact" trading pattern, with funds flowing out of overvalued tech stocks into traditional sectors like finance and utilities that benefit from lower rates [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more cuts within the year, citing employment risks [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted a slight increase in inflation risks and described the rate cut as a "risk management" move, which intensified the sell-off in tech stocks [1][4]. Group 2: Tech Sector Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 0.2%, with the tech-heavy "Big Seven" index declining by 0.66%, ending a four-day rally [1]. - Since early April, the "Big Seven" tech stocks, including Nvidia and Alphabet, surged nearly 60%, with their expected price-to-earnings ratio rising from about 22 to 30 [3]. - There was a notable divergence within the tech sector, with rate-sensitive stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, and Broadcom declining, while Apple and Microsoft, viewed as safer investments, saw gains [7]. Group 3: Bond Market Impact - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields negatively impacted tech stocks, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.3 basis points and the 2-year yield by 5.62 basis points after Powell's remarks [4][6]. - Higher yields can diminish the present value of future profits, which is critical for tech companies whose valuations are heavily based on long-term earnings expectations [6]. Group 4: Traditional Sectors' Response - As tech stocks faced pressure, capital shifted towards sectors that directly benefit from lower interest rates, such as finance, consumer staples, and utilities, which performed well on the S&P 500 [8]. - The KBW Bank Index rose by 1.3%, benefiting from lower rates that are expected to stimulate loan demand and reduce deposit costs [8]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index saw a temporary increase of 2.1%, reflecting a shift in risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite the sector rotation, the market did not exhibit panic, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dropping below 16, indicating lower volatility compared to typical market stress levels [9]. - The S&P 500 index experienced only a 0.1% decline, marking one of the least volatile Fed decision days in two years [9].

Group 1 - The market may not react as expected to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the appropriateness of such measures [2] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates a core inflation increase of 0.3%, marking the largest rise in six months [2] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration are exacerbating inflationary pressures, with potential tariff revenue increases of $250 to $300 billion over the next year [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decisions could significantly impact large technology stocks, which currently represent 76% of the total market capitalization, the highest concentration in history [3] - Rising U.S. Treasury yields may lead to a shift of funds from the stock market to the bond market, with a warning that a 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% could trigger profit-taking in large tech stocks [3] - Investors are advised to exercise caution when pursuing popular tech stocks, as volatility is expected [3]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by optimistic expectations regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices have declined from a high of $3345 to around $3280, with significant support at the $3280 level, which has not yet been breached [1][3]. - The recent drop from $3345 to $3320 represents a $25 decrease, and a similar drop from $3310 to $3285 has occurred, indicating a consistent downward movement [3]. - The current price action suggests a potential for a rebound, with a focus on the support level between $3275 and $3280 [1][3]. Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying gold on dips around $3287-$3282 with a stop loss at $3275 and a target of $3310-$3320 [4]. - Additionally, selling gold on rebounds around $3315-$3320 is advised, with a stop loss at $3328 and a target of $3300-$3290 [4].

Group 1 - The expectation of rising oil prices is leading to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 2 to 6 basis points across various maturities, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 3.97% as traders reduce bets on Fed easing [1] - The bond market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged, but the market is focused on the quarterly economic and interest rate forecast report [1] Group 2 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with historical data suggesting that such sell-off pressures may have lasting effects [2] - Initial spikes in oil prices due to the conflict have receded, with WTI crude oil prices dropping by as much as 4.9% before settling at a 2.3% decline [2] - Concerns over market volatility are rising, with implications for both risk assets and interest rate assets as implied volatility increases [2] Group 3 - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury auction showed stronger-than-expected demand, while the 20-year auction was relatively lackluster, with a yield of 4.942% aligning with expectations [3] - The pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve may increase due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to consider higher military spending [3] - The recent auction alleviated some risks associated with holding long-term assets, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to significant market movements ahead of the Fed's policy announcement [3]

Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is facing challenges as 30-year Treasury yields approach 5%, driven by concerns over President Trump's tariff policies and disappointing ISM manufacturing data [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose over 6 basis points to nearly 4.47%, while the price of 30-year Treasuries briefly surpassed 5% [1] - Long-term bonds are under pressure, with the yield curve steepening and the gap between 5-year and 30-year yields narrowing to just below 100 basis points, the lowest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Large bond investors are maintaining low positions in long-term bonds, preferring shorter-term securities, as indicated by BlackRock's research [4] - The weak performance of long-term bonds has led to the 20-year Treasury yield falling below that of the 30-year yield, a situation not seen in four years [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and potential trade measures by the President is contributing to the lack of interest in long-term Treasuries [4] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing stagnation in buying activity, with upcoming labor market reports expected to significantly impact Treasury yields and Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks [5] - Market participants anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, a revision from previous expectations of three cuts [5] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a cautious approach to interest rate decisions, depending on the resolution of trade policy uncertainties [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that the threat to the bond market from debt has surpassed that of tariffs, with rising concerns among bond traders regarding the U.S. government's debt levels [1] - John Waldron, President of Goldman Sachs, emphasizes that the macro-level risk is shifting from tariffs to the implications of tax cuts and fiscal conditions, which are increasingly alarming [1] - The increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is pushing up interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, making government debt more expensive and raising the risk of a growing deficit and higher borrowing costs for the economy [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields coincides with intense bipartisan negotiations in Congress over a significant tax cut bill proposed during Trump's second term, raising concerns about the worsening fiscal outlook for the U.S. [4] - The House passed a bill that extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and raises the debt ceiling, but it faces challenges in the Senate, where Republicans plan to make amendments [5] - Market participants are worried that the bill's measures could exacerbate the U.S. government's budget deficit, leading to greater pressure on the bond market [5] Group 3 - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, reflecting the impact of tax policies from Trump's first term and the debt explosion during the COVID-19 pandemic under both Trump and Biden [6] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget [5]