Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Meal: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by multiple factors including trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. There is no clear trend in the short - term, and most products are in a state of shock. For long - term investments, factors such as the development of biodiesel policies and seasonal supply - demand changes need to be considered [2][3][5] - Attention should be paid to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas, policy guidance, the resolution of tariff issues, and the impact of biodiesel policies on the prices of agricultural products [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean auctions had a total of 32,000 tons with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. The price of Soybean No. 1 fluctuated at a low level, and the price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 continued to narrow. There is resistance to price increases during the harvest period. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybeans in the domestic market [2] - In the context of unclear Sino - US trade tariffs, US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the domestic market, and domestic soybean meal continues to fluctuate. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased, and domestic procurement in the fourth quarter is slow. The oil mill's crushing rate is stable, and soybean meal inventory has reached a new high for the year. There is an early expectation of a bumper harvest for US soybeans, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is resolved [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, there is a need to be cautious about the risk of increased price fluctuations in soybean and palm oil. The market is discussing the US biodiesel policy, and the price spread between foreign and domestic soybean oil is approaching parity. The previous upward trend is likely to turn into a shock. The long - term development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains, so a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the amplification of market sentiment in the medium - term [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices have risen due to the rebound of major overseas oilseed futures prices. Before the release of the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the rapeseed meal market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. China - Canada economic and trade negotiations have not released new signals, and the downstream of the domestic rapeseed industry continues to destock slowly, so prices are supported but demand expectations may decline [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to be weak. The auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had a low transaction rate. Without policy guidance, the domestic corn market is expected to remain weak at the bottom [6] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall, reaching a new low for the year, while the futures price was relatively strong. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increased by 6.6% month - on - month. The fourth - quarter slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the near - term futures price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction logic in the long - term [7] Eggs - Egg futures continued to decline with increasing positions. The spot price was basically stable, with slight rebounds in some areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand and the release of cold - storage eggs on the spot price. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and a reverse - spread trading strategy is recommended for the futures market [8]

豆一减仓,价格从低位有所反弹,豆一和豆二价差持续缩小,离一季度的低点较为接近,显示利空释放相对充 分。不过后续面临收获期，价格上行也有阻力。本周五国产大豆政策端将举行竞价销售，投放数量为3.2万吨。 目前黑龙江和内蒙古大豆处于结英的时段，本周东北产区天气总体利于大豆生长。进口大豆方面短期受助于丰 产预期的价格，价格偏弱,中期角度市场对供应预期存在不确定性风险。后续继续关注国产大豆产区天气情况 以及政策指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 目前中美贸易关税的不确定性,使得巴西豆升贴水上涨,国内四季度采购节奏偏慢。油厂压榨率稳定，豆粕库 存持续增加，已至年内高位。目前美豆优良率依旧处于历史同期高位，天气上未来两周，美豆主产区降雨基本 持平于常值，温度上有所反复，但总体正常，美豆震荡偏弱。目前留给天气交易的时间窗口逐渐缩小，美豆或 有早期丰产预期。在关税问题明朗前，豆粕行情先以震荡对待，暂无趋势性交易机会。 【豆油&棕榈油】 国内豆油价格波动剧烈,现阶段市场再度谈论美国生物质柴油政策,预期可再生燃料识别码和小型炼厂籍免政 策存在变动,短期需要等待美国生物质柴油政策的指引。随着近几日的快速上涨,国外豆油和国内豆油价差向 平水靠拢, ...