Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]

数据来源：WIND、五矿期货期权服务部 农产品期权 2025-11-26 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [4] - Logs: Bottom volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and weakening [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strengthening [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Volatile [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wide-range volatile [10] - PR: On hold [10] - PF: On hold [10] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are in a volatile state, some are showing signs of rebound or upward movement, while others are weakening or range-bound. The performance of each sector is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policy, and geopolitical situation [2][4][6][7][10] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased significantly, but domestic port arrivals continued to decline. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with weak domestic demand. The supply-demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by import target news and supply concerns, the futures prices dropped significantly. The profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth price increase. The supply-demand situation is expected to become loose again, and the short-term adjustment trend will continue [2] - Rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price will remain in a volatile state, and it depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The spot price is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The inventory is increasing, and the price will be in a low-level consolidation state [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds remained flat, and the market showed a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The central bank's gold purchase behavior is the key, and factors such as high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and currency credit issues support the long-term price of gold [4] Light Industry Sector - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the demand is in the off-season with limited growth prospects. The spot price is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Pulp: The spot price is differentiated, and the cost support for pulp prices is weakening. The demand from the paper industry is not strong, and the pulp price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Oils: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are higher than expected, and the export is weak. The domestic supply of oils is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to range-bound [6] - Meals: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is affected by factors such as the uncertainty of biodiesel policies and the weather in Brazil. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Agricultural Products Sector - Live pigs: The trading weight of live pigs fluctuates, and the demand has recovered to some extent. The slaughter rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain volatile [7] Soft Commodities Sector - Rubber: The supply in some regions is affected by weather conditions, and the demand from the tire industry has recovered. The inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10] - PX: The supply is strong, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is favorable. The price will mainly fluctuate [10] - PTA: The cost end is loosened, and the short-term supply-demand situation has improved, but the seasonal weakening is inevitable. The price will follow the cost end to fluctuate [10] - MEG: The long-term inventory accumulation pressure still exists, and the short-term supply has decreased. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10] - PR: Affected by factors such as falling oil prices and new device production, the market continues to decline [10] - PF: The demand is average, and the supply of raw materials is loose. The market is likely to be weakly volatile [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 农产品团队 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月18日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约偏强走势，午后收于8320（日变动3 8或0.46%）。国际柴油价格走强带动马棕油上涨，进而带动连盘豆 油上涨。目前国内豆油库存虽然绝对量偏高但已经进入递减阶段， ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月17日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周一，豆油主力01合约偏强走势，午后收于8282（日变动2 6或0.31%）。豆粕大幅走弱后受油粕套利影响下豆油走势偏强。基 本面来看，国内豆油库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [4] - Logs: Bottom volatile [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6][7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly stronger [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wide-range volatile [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and steel mill profits are squeezed again. Coal and coke's upward driving force has weakened, but there is still support in the short term. Steel supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are mainly in volatile adjustment. Glass demand is weak, and the industry chain surplus contradiction needs to be resolved by reducing production. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the medium-term trend is still upward. Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and its price is expected to be in high-level volatile [2][4]. - Log supply pressure increases, and prices are expected to be in bottom volatile. Pulp cost support weakens, and demand performance is poor, but prices are expected to rebound from the bottom. Offset paper supply pressure still exists, and prices are expected to be volatile. Oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue range-bound. Soybean meal and soybean No.2 are affected by import costs and domestic fundamentals, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Live pig supply is expected to increase, but demand support is limited, and prices may decline [6][7]. - Rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand is improving. Inventory is in a downward trend, and prices are expected to be in wide-range volatile. PX and PTA prices are affected by raw material prices, and MEG supply is in a high position, and demand is worrying. PR and PF prices are affected by multiple factors, and the market is expected to be in volatile adjustment [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: China's 47-port arrival volume decreased by 16.44% to 2.7693 billion tons. Iron water increased slightly, but steel demand is weak. Port inventory continued to increase, and the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. Short-term negative feedback probability is small, and prices are mainly volatile [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The heating season supply guarantee meeting was held, and the market is worried about subsequent production resumption. Coking plant cost pressure is high, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the game. Steel mill profitability has declined rapidly, and blast furnace maintenance and production reduction have increased. There is still support for coal and coke in the short term [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and Sino-US preliminary meetings were held. The macro利好 has landed, and prices are returning to fundamentals. Rebar static valuation is low, and steel demand is weak. Steel price stability depends on whether production reduction can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti-"involution" policies [2]. - Glass: Spot prices are relatively weak, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The news of coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe has fermented. Real estate completion has continued to decline during the peak season, dragging down demand prospects. Enterprise inventory has continued to increase, and the industry chain surplus contradiction needs to be resolved by reducing production [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -1.57%, the SSE 50 index recorded -1.15%, the CSI 500 index recorded -1.63%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -1.16%. The forestry and gas sectors showed capital inflows, while the semiconductor and Internet sectors showed capital outflows. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the medium-term trend is still upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2]. - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan. Treasury bond spot rates are in consolidation, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Central bank gold purchases are the key, and its de-fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk aversion demand still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly. The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that gold will be in high-level volatile [4]. Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume of logs last week was 663,000 cubic meters, an increase of 35,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily national outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters, but demand growth is difficult to maintain. New Zealand's log shipments to China in October increased by 2% from the previous month. The port inventory pressure is high, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue. Spot market prices are running steadily, and the ex-warehouse price is expected to decline. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the delivery situation [6]. - Pulp: The previous trading day, spot market prices rose and fell. The latest ex-warehouse price of softwood pulp decreased by another 20 US dollars to 680 US dollars per ton, and the latest ex-warehouse price of hardwood pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 540 US dollars per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand performance is poor, and currently paper mills purchase raw materials on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. Spot market price increases may drive futures prices, and it is expected that pulp prices will rebound from the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: The previous trading day, spot market prices were running steadily. Offset paper supply pressure still exists, and production has recovered compared with the previous week. Publishing tenders have been launched one after another, but market expectations are cautious. At the same time, paper price profits are at a low level, and the enthusiasm for high-price inventory is low. It is expected that prices will be mainly volatile [6]. Oil and Fat - Soybean oil: Malaysian palm oil production is higher than market expectations, and exports are strong, alleviating inventory accumulation concerns. It is expected that inventory will remain at a historical high in the next two months. The focus later will turn to the production reduction rate in November and export resilience. Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated sharply, and the attractiveness of biodiesel raw materials is limited. A large amount of soybeans have continued to arrive in China, and the oil mill operating rate has declined. Although the oil inventory has declined, the supply is abundant, while the demand is weak. At the same time, oil mills are more willing to support soybean meal prices to repair pressing profits, but there is support from raw material soybean costs. It is expected that the overall oil and fat will continue to be range-bound. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Palm oil: Same as soybean oil [6]. - Rapeseed oil: Same as soybean oil [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The USDA report shows that US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been revised down compared with September, but the global ending stocks have been revised up to 18.27 million tons, higher than market expectations. The global supply is slightly loose. Although the Sino-US trade agreement is helpful to promote US exports to China, US soybean prices do not have an export advantage. After the USDA report expectations are fulfilled, US soybean futures prices lack further driving force. The Brazilian soybean planting progress has improved, and the weather in the central and southern regions will be favorable for soybean crops. Argentina's soybean sowing is expected to accelerate due to favorable weather. Domestic oil mill operating rates have declined, and a large amount of imported soybeans have arrived. Soybean meal supply is abundant, demand is weak, and purchases are mainly on a rigid basis. Overall transactions are light. Soybean meal is affected by both import cost support and domestic fundamental pressure. It is expected that soybean meal will be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area and the actual progress of Sino-US trade [6][7]. - Soybean No.2: After the USDA expectations are fulfilled, US soybean futures prices lack further driving force. China has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products and resumed purchasing a small amount of US soybeans, but traders are still waiting for larger-scale soybean purchases. The weather in the South American soybean producing area is generally favorable. Domestic near-month shipping imports of soybeans have accelerated, and port soybean inventory has continued to rise. Supply is very abundant. It is expected that soybean No.2 will be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area, Sino-US trade progress, and other uncertainties [7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs across the country has increased slightly. The average transaction weight of live pigs has reached 124.65 kilograms, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week. Most regions have shown an upward trend in live pig transaction weight, except for a slight decline in the Northeast. Some large-scale farms concentrated on slaughtering in the first half of last month, and the weight of pigs available for slaughter at the end of the month was relatively light. At the beginning of this month, they generally adopted a strategy of reducing volume and increasing weight. The demand for large-weight白条 pigs has increased in some regions, and the price difference between fat and thin pigs has gradually narrowed. Slaughtering enterprises have correspondingly increased their purchasing efforts for medium and large-sized pigs, driving a slight increase in the average transaction weight. As the slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end gradually returns to normal, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase, but the demand support in the downstream market is limited, and there may be passive backlogging. It is expected that the average transaction weight of live pigs across the country may continue to maintain a slight upward trend next week. The average settlement price of live pigs by key slaughtering enterprises across the country was 12.67 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous period. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined this week. The operating rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises has shown a slow recovery trend at a low level. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises across the country this week was 37.06%, a slight decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous week. The slaughtering volume of the breeding end was relatively limited from the end of last month to the beginning of this month, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm was insufficient. Slaughtering enterprises reported that it was difficult to sell白条, and only the slaughtering volume in some regions increased. Currently, the cost is high, and orders are limited. The slaughtering end has no sign of actively increasing the slaughtering volume, and the support for the market is limited. The average weekly price of live pigs may decline in the next week [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The weather in Yunnan's rubber-producing area has limited impact, and raw material supply has remained stable. The purchase price has been slightly adjusted downward, and the rubber tapping profit is in the negative range. Hainan has been affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, which has had a greater impact on rubber tapping operations. The overall glue production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expected. The processing profit is in the red, leading to a reduction in raw material prices. The production cost of local processing plants has decreased, and the profit inversion has improved. In Thailand, there has been a lot of rain, and typhoons have affected the southern producing area. The cup lump price has continued to rise, with a weekly average of 54.41 Thai baht per kilogram. The weather in the Vietnamese producing area has improved, and the previous supply pressure has been alleviated. The overall inventory is still at a low level. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.07%, and that of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 63.96%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has increased this week. Some enterprises had short-term maintenance plans before, which significantly dragged down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume operation, the device capacity will be gradually released. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales in September were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Natural rubber inventory has continued to show a downward trend. Currently, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China is 1.08 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%. Bonded warehouses have accumulated inventory, and general trade warehouses have continued to reduce inventory. The inventory reduction volume is greater than the inventory increase volume. The main producing areas have been affected by rain and typhoons, which have affected rubber tapping, but the expectation of increased supply in the future suppresses raw material prices. In the short term, rubber prices will follow the macro trend, and natural rubber prices may show a wide-range volatile operation [9]. - PX: The intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela also has risks, leading to rising oil prices. North American gasoline inventory is at a low level, and gasoline profitability is good. The market is speculating on the aromatics blending oil logic, which drives up PX prices regardless of oil price fluctuations [9]. - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price expectation is not good, and the cost-side support is not good. PTA supply has decreased marginally, but there are new device test runs. The downstream polyester factory load has remained stable at a high level. Overall, PTA supply and demand have improved. Especially, the announcement of maintenance plans for multiple devices recently and the sharp increase in raw material prices have led to short-term PTA prices mainly following the raw material price fluctuations [9]. - MEG: It is expected that port inventory will continue to rise last week, while domestic production load has slightly declined. The overall supply is still at a high level. The polyester load on the demand side has temporarily stabilized with a decline, but at the end of the peak season, there are concerns about the future. The future supply and demand are expected to be in surplus. Although the long-term inventory accumulation pressure suppresses prices, short-term factors such as device accidents affect the inventory accumulation expectation, and the futures market has warmed up [9]. - PR: Crude oil prices have risen, and the cost still has strong support. However, there has been no substantial improvement in supply and demand, and the upward momentum of polyester bottle chips is insufficient. It is expected to be in weak volatile consolidation [9]. - PF: The demand side has shown average performance, but the PTA supply has decreased. Coupled with the large increase in oil prices over the weekend, it may continue to boost the cost-side trend. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the polyester staple fiber market may be in a warming consolidation this week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the palm oil inventory in the producing areas to peak at the end of October, improving market sentiment. The strengthening of the external palm oil market drives up the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other related products. However, the sufficient domestic oil inventory restricts the increase in soybean oil prices. The rise in soybean cost narrows the oil mill's profit margin, but there is a driving force for profit repair, which effectively supports the soybean oil price. [3][4] - The inventory of rapeseed oil has significantly decreased this week, relieving the high - inventory pressure and boosting market sentiment. After the previous decline, the support at the lower level has strengthened, and with the expectation of improved consumption in the future, the futures price has rebounded. However, the shipment of Australian rapeseed in November may limit the increase in the futures price. [3] - For soybean meal, although the export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased and the domestic soybean inventory is accumulating, the subsequent narrowing of profit margins and negative buying of ships provide strong support at the lower level. There is a continuous driving force for profit repair. [4] - The corn futures price rebounded on Tuesday, driven by the price - increasing sentiment of deep - processing enterprises. However, the continuous rebound momentum of the futures price is still insufficient, and the full reflection of the concentrated supply pressure remains to be verified. [5] - The price of live pigs is in a bottom - seeking stage. The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction has strengthened. The far - month futures price is slightly at a premium to the spot price. [8][9] - The egg futures price shows a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The spot price has stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. With the expectation of the end of the cycle, the far - month contract is supported and shows a strong performance. The overall consumption is gradually entering a peak season, and the egg - laying hen inventory capacity is gradually being reduced. [9] Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | After the continuous rise in the price of domestic new soybeans, the purchasing sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled, but the farmers' reluctance to sell remains. | 4000 - 4020 | 4180 - 4200 | Firm operation | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybean No.2 01 | The restart of the USDA website is expected to release a positive November supply - demand report. The import profit of soybeans in China is still negative. Affected by the cost side, the price of Soybean No.2 has increased. | 3685 - 3710 | 3850 - 3900 | Oscillatory rise | Hold long positions | | | Peanut 01 | The market supply is increasing, but the yield performance in some areas is not good. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillatory adjustment | Buy on dips | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | The increase in soybean import cost narrows the oil mill's profit margin. | 8000 - 8030 | 8350 - 8400 | Oscillatory strength | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | The oil mill's operation is almost at a standstill, the inventory has been significantly reduced, and market sentiment has been boosted. | 9300 - 9350 | 9840 - 9890 | Oscillatory strength | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | | Palm 01 | The negative impact of the October MPOB monthly report has been released. The producing areas are about to enter the production - reduction season, and the inventory is expected to peak. In the short term, palm oil may continue the upward trend. | 8530 - 8550 | 9000 - 9050 | Bottom - building and rising | Light - position trial long or sell out - of - the - money put options | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 01 | The restart of the USDA website is expected to release a positive November supply - demand report, and the import profit is still negative. The cost side provides obvious support. | 2970 - 2980 | 3100 - 3150 | Firm operation | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | There is a short - term supply shortage, but the shipment of Australian rapeseed eases the supply expectation. It is also the off - season for demand, with both long and short factors intertwined. | 2400 - 2430 | 2570 - 2600 | Narrow - range oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The profit of deep - processing has been repaired, and the price - increasing sentiment provides support. However, the concentrated supply has not been fully released, and the futures price may rebound slightly in the short term. | 2050 - 2070 | 2200 - 2220 | Slight rebound | Close short positions and wait - and - see | | | Starch 01 | The cost of corn has rebounded slightly, and the starch futures price has followed the upward trend. | 2350 - 2360 | 2520 - 2540 | Slight rebound | Close short positions and wait - and - see | | Livestock | Live Pig 01 | The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction has strengthened. | 11500 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Switch to wait - and - see | | | Egg 12 | The expected decrease in newly - opened laying hens and the peak consumption season. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Buy on dips | [12] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current values are the same as the previous values, and the recommended strategies are mainly wait - and - see. For example, for Soybean No.1 1 - 5, Soybean No.2 1 - 5, etc., the current values are unchanged, and the strategies are to wait and see. For Peanut 1 - 4, the value has increased by 30, and the strategy is to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract. For Corn 5 - 1, the strategy is to buy on dips with a target range of 150 - 200. For Live Pig 1 - 3, the strategy is to conduct a positive spread on dips. [13] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, such as 01 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil, 01 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil, and 01 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal, the current values are unchanged, and the strategies are mainly temporary wait - and - see. For 01 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil, the strategy is to take a long - biased operation. For the oil - meal ratio of 01 soybeans and 01 rapeseeds, the strategies are to take light - position long positions. For 01 Starch - Corn, the strategy is to wait and see with a reference range of 300 - 350. [13] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis values and their changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds (Soybean No.1, Soybean No.2, Peanut), oils (Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Palm Oil), proteins (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal), energy and by - products (Corn, Starch), and livestock (Live Pig, Egg). [14][15] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CIF premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices. [16][17] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils. For example, the port soybean inventory is 767.08 (decreased by 15.58), the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 99.86 (decreased by 15.44), and the port soybean oil inventory is 114.00 (decreased by 5.90). The operating rate of soybean - related processing is 55.00% (increased by 1.00%). [19] 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided, including CNF prices and landed duty - paid costs. [19] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises. For example, the consumption of corn in deep - processing enterprises is 125.40 (increased by 1.93), and the inventory is 279.50 (decreased by 3.20). [20] 3. Livestock - **Daily Data**: The daily data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including the prices of different types of live pigs in different regions, the prices of 7KG outer - ternary piglets, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratios, basis, and monthly spreads. For eggs, the daily price changes in different regions and the prices of culled chickens are provided. [21][22] - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including the average prices of binary sows, outer - ternary piglets, outer - ternary live pigs, and the costs and profits of different breeding methods. For eggs, the data on the supply side (laying rate, proportion of different sizes, culled chicken age, culled chicken output), demand side (sales volume, inventory in production and circulation links), and related profits and prices are provided. [23][24][25] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock (live pigs, eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanut), and feed (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal) sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, operating rates, and other aspects. [27][30][31][32][33][34][36][38][40][42][44][46][53][56][62][66][77] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts on the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options. [91][93][94] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts on the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig index and the egg index. [96][97][98][99]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]