热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2026-1-6） | | | | 铁矿：元旦假期期间，新加坡铁矿石期货先跌后涨，整体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 窄幅波动。一季度澳巴主产区进入季节性天气敏感期，或 | | | | | 导致发运阶段性收缩。关注主流矿山季节性发运波动及钢 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 厂利润修复带来的补库节奏。钢材需求仍处传统淡季，当 | | | | | 前铁水产量已接近阶段性底部，钢厂进口矿库存创近年同 | | | | | 期新低，冬储补库刚需逐步升温，为钢价提供短期支撑。 | | | | | 国内港口库存持续处于高位区间，铁矿价格上行幅度承 | | | | | 压。综合来看，短期基本面矛盾尚不突出，供需多空因素 | | | | | 相互博弈，难以形成大幅单边行情，预计整体在区间内震 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 荡运行，关注补库落地力度与天气对发运的实际影响。 | | | | | 煤焦：元旦前后焦炭市场现货价格承压下行，焦炭价格第 | | | | | 四轮提降落地，焦化厂平均利润进一步下滑，目前焦炭供 | | | | | 需宽松，目前焦 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力05合约午后收于7878（日变动60或0.77% ）。南美大豆生长状态较好，丰产概率较大，美豆出口进度依旧偏 慢，因而CBOT大豆期价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly oscillating, by - products are oscillating, soft commodities like sugar are slightly oscillating, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias [2]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,143, up 21 with a 0.51% increase, trading volume is 1.72 million lots (up 0.67 million lots), and open interest is 5.05 million lots (down 0.05 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open - Interest PCR**: Each option variety has different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes, which reflect the sentiment and strength of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.41, up 0.06, and the open - interest PCR is 0.89, down 0.04 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of option factors, each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200, and the support level is 4000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of each option variety also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.535, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.76, up 0.40 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, China's soybean procurement and Brazilian soybean import costs have an impact. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, trading volume, delivery volume, and basis have changed. Option strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, production has decreased and exports have increased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Fundamentally, downstream consumption is weak. The option strategy is to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **By - product Options** - **Pig**: Fundamentally, supply has decreased and demand is in the peak season. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: Fundamentally, supply is sufficient and demand is weak. Option strategies involve constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Fundamentally, cold - storage inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Fundamentally, inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, production in Thailand has decreased and domestic industrial inventory is increasing. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, China's cotton production has increased. Option strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot [13]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the corn germ market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Starch**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [309][311]. - **Log Options**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [328][330]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 求整体偏弱，库存压力高，关注宏观以及产线冷修情况能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 否给市场带来契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录 0.29%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录-0.08%，中证 500 股指收录 1.31%，中 | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 证 1000 股指收录 1.54%。化纤行业、航天军工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，保险、煤炭板块呈现资金净流出。央行货币 | | | | | 政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要 | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用 | | | | | 多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势 | | | | | 和金融市场运行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily statistics of futures and options markets for various commodities, including agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals, on December 23, 2025, covering data such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of various agricultural products showed different trends, with cotton, apple, and palm oil rising by 70, 81, and 72 respectively, while peanut, egg, and红枣 fell by 12, 12, and 70 respectively [1] - The trading volumes and open interests of most varieties also changed, with corn starch and soybean meal showing significant changes in trading volume and open interest [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of options for different agricultural products had different degrees of change, and the Put - Call Ratios (PCR) also showed different trends [3] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of different agricultural products' options were presented, with the implied volatilities of some varieties such as palm oil and soybean meal having certain changes [4] 3.2 Energy Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among energy chemical products, PVC, short - fiber, and urea rose by 147, 20, and 23 respectively, while LPG, BR rubber, and asphalt fell by 94, 55, and 18 respectively [5] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties also changed, with PVC and methanol showing relatively large changes in trading volume [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of energy chemical options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options having a certain increase [6][7] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of energy chemical options were provided, with the implied volatilities of some varieties like PTA and PVC being relatively high [8] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - In the black commodity market, silicon iron and rebar rose by 4 and 2 respectively, while manganese silicon and iron ore fell by 18 and 3 respectively [9] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of iron ore decreasing significantly [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of black commodity options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options increasing [9] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of black commodity options were presented, with the implied volatility of rebar options having a relatively large change [10] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among metals, silver, nickel, and tin rose by 231, 1740, and 3490 respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum fell by 390, 25, and 25 respectively [11] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of silver decreasing significantly [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of metal options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of silver options increasing [12] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of metal options were provided, with the implied volatility of silver being relatively high [13]

| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/22 | -106.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/12/22 2025/12/19 2025/12/18 2025/12/17 2025/12/1 ...

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月20日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约大幅下挫。南美大豆主产区天气较好， 美豆出口速度放缓，CBOT大豆承压运行。中加贸易关系或有向好 预期，菜油下跌 ...