根据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的最新报道，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）的政策制定者们，对于是否应该继续降息的问题，正陷入前所未有的严重 分歧。这标志着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）领导下的"共识时代"已然终结，一场内部的路线之争正在撕裂这个全球最具影响力的中央银 行。 就在今年10月下旬，美联储做出了将利率下调25个基点的决定，然而，这一看似常规的举动却遭遇了两名政策制定者的公开反对。其中一位官员坚决主张维 持利率不变，而另一位则认为降息幅度应该更大，直接要求下调50个基点。这种"左右互搏"的异议局面，自2019年以来就从未出现过。 更令人震惊的是，今年早些时候，美联储理事会中首次出现不止一位成员投下反对票，这可是三十多年来的头一遭！这不仅仅是简单的意见不合，更像是内 部裂痕的公开显现，无疑给鲍威尔主席的领导力带来了严峻挑战。 美联储官员之间日益扩大的分歧，在最近几天的公开讲话中暴露无遗，这让鲍威尔在努力维持同事间的共识时面临巨大压力。这种深层分裂，直接源于美国 经济前景的巨大不确定性，以及围绕总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）激进贸易政策影响的诸多疑问。 与此同时，一个 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. employment market showed unexpected weakness with only 37,000 jobs added in May, the lowest since March 2023, falling short of the expected 114,000 jobs [4] - The ADP employment report has raised expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with President Trump urging for a rate cut in response to the disappointing employment data [4][3] - The latest ISM services PMI index for May fell to 49.9, indicating contraction for the first time in a year, suggesting that tariff policies are impacting demand and inflation [5] Group 2 - Wall Street institutions are adjusting their outlooks for the U.S. stock market, with Barclays raising its S&P 500 year-end target from 5900 to 6050, citing reduced trade uncertainty and expectations for normalized earnings growth [6] - Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada also raised their S&P 500 targets, with Deutsche Bank increasing its target from 6150 to 6550, and Royal Bank of Canada from 5550 to 5730, reflecting a more optimistic view on the market [6] Group 3 - President Trump announced a comprehensive travel ban for citizens from 12 countries, including Afghanistan and Iran, as part of national security measures [11] - Additional restrictions were placed on citizens from seven other countries, with certain exemptions for specific groups [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by the ADP employment data showing an increase of only 37,000 jobs in May, the smallest since March 2023, which is far below market expectations [1] - The ISM services PMI index fell to 49.9 in May, marking the first contraction in nearly a year, indicating a broader economic slowdown [1] - The combination of disappointing employment and services data has led to volatility in U.S. capital markets, with a weakening dollar and strengthening of U.S. Treasuries and gold [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, attributing this to tariffs and high uncertainty affecting the economy [2] - The Beige Book also noted moderate price increases, with many respondents expecting faster cost and price hikes in the future, with some regions anticipating significant price increases [2] - A report from the Congressional Budget Office indicated that Trump's tariff policy could reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over ten years but would also lead to economic contraction, higher inflation, and decreased purchasing power for American households [2]

美联储政策路径的不确定性正在上升。 今日凌晨，美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称《褐皮书》）显示，近期美国经济活动略有下 降，表明关税和高度不确定性正在对经济产生广泛影响。《褐皮书》警告称，美国经济前景"略显悲观且不确 定"。 与此同时，最新发布的经济指标也传来危险信号。美东时间6月4日，ISM公布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务 业PMI指数49.9，大幅不及预期的52。分析指出，这表明美国关税政策正在对需求和通胀产生更明显的影响。 目前交易员们正在加大力度对冲美联储利率路径剧变的风险。美国经济前景的不确定性，促使交易员交易员购 买期权以应对多种可能结果：从全年完全不降息到2025年年内连续降息、每次50个基点。 另据最新消息，美国参议院投票，确认鲍曼出任美联储负责金融监管事务副主席的提名资格。 关于通胀问题，《褐皮书》指出，美国物价正"以温和速度上涨"。 此外，有广泛的报告称，联系人预计未来成本和价格将以更快的速度上升。有些地区预计这些上涨将是强劲 的、显著的或实质性的。 报告指出，有计划将关税相关成本转嫁给消费者的企业，预计将在三个月内实施。 不过，企业对物价上涨的预期存在差异，部分企业表示可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasing their hedging against the risk of a dramatic shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, reflecting uncertainty in the economic impact of the Trump administration's fluctuating policies [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Expectations - The swap market indicates expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, with the first anticipated in October [1] - There is a divergence in views among major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup regarding when the Federal Reserve will begin to ease policies [1] Options Market Activity - Options market traders are purchasing insurance against a range of potential outcomes, from no rate cuts to consecutive cuts of 50 basis points within the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy, which he believes is detrimental to the U.S. economy's competitiveness [1][3][4]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met at the White House on May 29, marking their first discussion since Trump resumed office [1]. - During the meeting, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed's decision not to lower interest rates is a significant mistake [3]. - The discussion included topics such as economic growth, employment, and inflation, but Powell did not address future monetary policy directions [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump has consistently criticized the Fed's current interest rate policy, arguing that it places the U.S. at a disadvantage in global competition, particularly against China [4]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its May 7 meeting, indicating a potential continuation of this rate in the coming months [6]. - The FOMC's May meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook due to tariffs and policy instability, with rising unemployment and inflation risks [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [8]. - The market's reliance on the Fed's independence is significant, as political interference could lead to instability in financial markets [8].

Group 1 - The FOMC statement indicates an increase in uncertainty regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve indicates that uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook has increased further [1] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's assessment highlights growing concerns about the stability and predictability of the U.S. economy [1] - Factors contributing to this uncertainty may include inflationary pressures, labor market dynamics, and geopolitical events [1]