Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that there is market uncertainty following a report suggesting that former President Trump may seek to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, leading to a sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds, and a rise in gold bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The current sentiment in major U.S. stock indices shows a selling inclination, with the S&P 500 index having 72% bearish sentiment and 28% bullish sentiment, while the Nasdaq index shows 53% bullish and 47% bearish sentiment [3] - The Dow Jones index reflects 37% bullish and 63% bearish sentiment, indicating a predominantly negative outlook [3] - The Nikkei 225 index has 62% bullish sentiment and 38% bearish sentiment, while the German DAX 40 index shows a strong bearish sentiment with 75% [3] Group 3 - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro/USD pair has 32% bullish and 68% bearish sentiment, while the Euro/GBP pair shows 15% bullish and 85% bearish sentiment [4] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bullish sentiment at 89% compared to 11% bearish, while the Euro/AUD pair shows 12% bullish and 88% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has 27% bullish and 73% bearish sentiment, and the USD/JPY pair shows 26% bullish and 74% bearish sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency has paused, but market participants remain tense, anticipating potential renewed selling [1][3] - The U.S. dollar's depreciation trend has been halted, with the dollar index recovering from around 97 to the 99 range [1] - The "MOVE index," which reflects expected volatility in the U.S. bond market, remains high at around 105, indicating ongoing market uncertainty [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index rose to 5525.21 points, surpassing the previous two-day high, yet the VIX index remains elevated at 24.8, suggesting continued market apprehension [6] - Many investors predict a recession in the U.S. within the next year, despite the stock market not yet reflecting this downturn [6] - The upcoming U.S. employment data on May 2 is deemed extremely significant, as it may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [6][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for May are around 10%, with June's expectations at about 60%, indicating a cautious outlook [7] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate, with no immediate changes anticipated unless trade negotiations progress [8]