Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].

消息传特朗普强撤鲍威尔致美国股债汇三杀，前者一小时后迅速"TACO"否定，但市场或将此视为可信威胁，不确定性盘旋不 去。当前美股三大股指呈卖出倾向，黄金多头占比上升，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据 每10分钟更新1次） 电话.1 ソリゾン TUYO 香港恒生指数 33% 67% 标普500指数 72% 28% 纳斯达克指数 53% 47% 道琼斯指数 37% 63% 日经225指数 62% 38% 德国DAX40指 75% 25% 数 外汇 r 多头 |空头 欧元/美元 32% 68% 欧元/英镑 15% 85% 欧元/日元 89% 11% 欧元/澳元 12% 88% 英镑/美元 27% 73% 英镑/日元 70% 30% 美元/日元 26% 74% 美元/加元 32% 68% 美元/瑞郎 93% 70/0 澳元/美元 32% 68% 澳元/日元 45% 55% 加元/日元 63% 37% 纽元/美元 74% 26% 纽元/日元 71% 29% 美元/离岸人 83% 17% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 ...

美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市 场参与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三杀"的关键…… 在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货币齐齐 遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪，认为 抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根据内容，市场的平静 可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力的"美元指 数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币对美元 买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5%以下。自4月3日 以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4月11日，负值一度达 到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 从利率期货市场价格走势来预测今后政策 ...